Obama Is Surging In New Tennessee Primary Poll

[Hope And Change]

New Tennessee Primary Poll


What a difference a week can make....WSMV has a new poll out, which shows dramatically different numbers than a previous poll from January 22nd, and it shows a surge for Barack Obama in Tennessee.

Hillary Clinton has edged up 2 points to 36.

Barack Obama has gained 11 points from 20 to 31.

John Edwards has dropped from 16 to 7, with 3 percent fewer undecided votes...still 25% of the poll sample.

This is interesting, as it appears to show that nearly all of the former Edwards support has shifted over to Barack Obama. While the anecdotal evidence I've seen seemed to bear this out, I'm quite surprised to see it occurring across the State of Tennessee. This may show that Hillary Clinton has a limited appeal in Tennessee, and with Edwards out of the picture, more people are willing to give Obama a shot at their support.

While some will point to policy and say that because of Health Care mandates, Hillary should be ahead with Edwards voters, the truth is most people don't pay attention to minute policy differences when choosing a candidate; like it or not, personality goes a long way in making that decision.

Of course, there are still 25% of Democrats who haven't chosen a candidate. This could all go towards Hillary Clinton, we simply don't know. What is also of interest, is that Obama does better with Women (35-34 Hillary to Obama) than with men (36-28 Hillary to Obama) perhaps because Edwards is still pulling in 11% of the vote from that demographic. The question is, will they, like LeftWingCracker, continue to support Edwards in the voting booth on Tuesday, or will they break for another candidate?

Update: The poll also looks at Republican voters....and as I've said before, any poll that does not include Fred Thompson in the options is a worthless poll. He will still be on the ballot, and there are many who will likely still vote for him.

Update II: The timing of this poll is also significant, because as I pointed out yesterday, early voting in Tennessee didn't start to pick up until Monday of this week, and the poll was conducted on Monday and Tuesday of this week. Which means that her early lead may be less significant going into Feb. 5th.

http://seanbraisted.blogspot.com/2008/02/new-tennessee-primary-poll.html

[bluestateguy]

1. We need that Al Gore endorsement now

nt

[caligirl]

4. I don't see him doing this. His Global warming work and personal life are

just too important to risk it. The bounce either candidate might get would not be enough to justify it. He wants the cooperation of many groups, repugs too, on global warming. An endorsement by him could be to much of a negative on that front. I don't think he will.

[caligirl]

2. well done. this is a state I was wondering about. I am not surprised to

see Edwards support going to Obama. Remember though this is a delegate race. Not a winner takes all. He needs to have broad appeal in high enough concentrations district by district.

[sunonmars]

3. The author has not actually read the poll itself, All edwards support shifted to Hillary

After John Edwards support dissolved, most of his supporters nearly all white, transferred to the Hillary Clinton Camp.

Obama benefitted from the AA vote switching to him from Hillary.

Here go read it
http://www.wsmv.com/download/2008/0131/15189367.pdf

[caligirl]

6. your right. But Obama is gaining.

[Lucinda]

9. This was taken before JE dropped out.

[sandnsea]

5. This is really encouraging

I hope he has enough time to push the votes in his favor.

[sunonmars]

7. The author is lying, read the actualy democratic race poll, whats encouraging.

[Lucinda]

11. This one is an older poll from the 28 & 29th before JE dropped out

[Lucinda]

8. This one was taken before JE dropped out , over 1/28 & 29

So it's old data.

Linked from the OP article:
http://www.wsmv.com/download/2008/0131/15189367.pdf

[sunonmars]

10. and it clearly says all edwards white support transferred to Hillary

[cali]

12. you know what? it doesn't matter.

delegates are what matter, pumpkin. And if this trend keeps up, he'll be getting plenty. And if you think it's only blacks voting for Obama, check out CO and CT and other places with a much smaller AA population. And I wouldn't be a bit surprised to see him do very well in Maine, and he'll smoke her here in VT- and those are the two whitest states in the nation. New Hampshire may have gone (by a very small margin) to hilly, but New England is not particularly hill country.

[Libby2]

13. This is what Obama is up against in the south.

It's a sad state of affairs, but it's the truth.




“The Democrats have left the working people,” Mr. Moss said.

“We have nobody representing us,” he continued, adding that he was “sad to say” he had voted previously for Mr. Bush. He was considering sitting out this election altogether. “Anyone but Obama-Osama,” he said, chuckling at a designation that met with mirthful approval at the table.

In interviews around the courthouse square, voters stuttered over Senators Hillary Rodham Clinton and Barack Obama in matchups with Republicans, particularly Senator John McCain, whose military credentials give him solid regional armoring. Some white voters voiced outright alarm over Mr. Obama, and though he is a Christian, allusions to his supposed Muslim ties were frequent, as were suggestions that he remained a disturbingly unknown quantity.

White men, in particular, expressed general fearfulness — over a possible terrorist attack, over an unnamed threat from Muslims, over Hispanic immigrants and over the weakening economy. These fears led them to reflect positively on Republican candidates, perceived as more hard-line on most fronts.

http://www.nytimes.com/2008/01/30/us/politics/30south.html?_r=2&oref=slogin&oref=slogin

[papau]

14. 402 responses for "Dem primary", but only 289 registered Dem's