Are Republicans losing their pivotal grasp on Florida?

[DeepModem Mom]

WSJ: Are Republicans Losing Panhandle Grip?
By COREY DADE
January 31, 2008; Page A6

TAMPA, Fla. -- Even as Tuesday's primary here gave Arizona Sen. John McCain new momentum going into next week's Super Tuesday voting for the Republican presidential nomination, it revealed signs of stress in the party's pivotal grasp on Florida. A toxic brew of economic anxiety, a deepening housing slump, skyrocketing home insurance, strained schools and the lingering effects of recent hurricanes have spawned a gloomy mood in Florida. Tuesday's primary results, in which Mr. McCain won with just 36% of the vote, showed Florida Republicans still splintered.

The absence of a broadly unifying Republican candidate has encouraged some disgruntled voters to break from typical voting patterns, including some formerly staunch Republicans who now are backing Democratic Sens. Hillary Clinton of New York or Barack Obama of Illinois.

It is too early to predict how voters in Florida will vote in November, but in recent months, a drift away from Republican leadership -- especially among the state's nearly two million independent voters -- has been apparent in some Florida polling data. In surveys conducted by Quinnipiac University periodically throughout 2007, Florida voters narrowly but consistently favored Mrs. Clinton over Mr. McCain in a general election.

In a general election pitting Mrs. Clinton against former Massachusetts Gov. Mitt Romney, respondents said they would prefer Mrs. Clinton by eight percentage points, with 7% undecided. The last poll, in October, took place before Mr. Obama's rise to prominence following his Iowa primary victory. Even then, he was tied against McCain, at 42%, with 9% undecided. Mr. Obama led Mr. Romney by seven percentage points, with 11% undecided.

Other indicators make clear that Republicans are likely to face a tough contest to retain Florida this fall. On Tuesday, although no Democratic candidate actively campaigned in Florida, 1.7 million voters participated in the Democratic primary -- 189,890 less than in the hotly contested Republican race....

http://online.wsj.com/article/SB120175324651831297.html

[ray of light]

1. That's why they have those little machines as their 'ace in the hole'

[Freddie Stubbs]

4. Touch screen voting is being phased out in FL by November

If there is any monkey business, there will be a paper trail.

[PATRICK]

2. The extraordinary ignored factor

that Jeb backed Romney and Crisp backed McCain means the Bush machine's grip is also shaken. Crisp in effect is trying to disable the electronics fraud which would in effect break him free from easy out of state election fraud and other invisible ploys. Of course, this plain observation which needs no actual conversations or evidence is completely out off the radar.

What would a half-hearted or non-existent national fix coordination mean this fall? Victory likely, because everything else is under scrutiny and attack. One big piece falls and the rest starts to crumble.

[DeepModem Mom]

3. Thanks for your post -- I had forgotten Jeb backed Romney!

I heard nothing about Jeb in recent days, while Crist was all over the place on the news, with McCain. Incidentally, I saw an article this morning indicating that the moneybags behind Giuliani -- lots of them Texans, who, I think, were instrumental in foisting G.W. Bush on us -- don't know where to go now with their money. They, too, lost out. IMO, there are a few bright spots on the political landscape.

[Freddie Stubbs]

5. Jeb did not back Romney

He stayed neutral. One of his sons is backing Romney and another was backing Guiliani.

[DeepModem Mom]

6. Thanks, Freddie! nt

[PATRICK]

7. It was never public

They had another family member backing Thompson. Their scan of divided interest is remarkable but it indicates keeping their tentacles in. What info do you have that Jeb is actually neutral? I heard he was in the campaign escorting him disastrously around the Hispanic community and on other posts that he definitely backing Romney. There was talk too of testing the waters for Jebs own candidacy. Whatever they are, they are into the primaries pretty deep for a lame duck presidency. Maybe he won't be so disengaged if the schmuck ever starts winning.

[DeepModem Mom]

8. Thanks again, PATRICK. I actually thought I remembered a public endorsement...

but I must have been thinking of another Bush.

[Freddie Stubbs]

9. He has made no public statements, nor has he campaigned with Romney

[PATRICK]

10. That I would believe

the being offstage part. Aren't there any posters who rmemeber the offscenese connections?