A trend that worries me: Obama vs. McCain

[marlonjose]

Barack Obama has received arguably the biggest, most sympathetic press in the history of candidacies as of late.
This is good news when it comes to the Democratic Party, but America seems to be leaning towards John McCain.
The Democrats seem to be ready to elect a black president. But is America?

Just for the record, I think Hillary has no chance to win in the GE, but I've been hoping Edwards or Obama could bail us out in '08.
With Obama increasiling looking like our nominee, we need him to be strong against McCain, who will likely win for the Republicans.
Or we could pray for a Romney upset.

It's worth noting that Obama will lose the nice coverage given to him by conservative press such as Novak, Brooks, and well, everyone else in the right. It also remains to be seen how Maureen Dowd and the mainstream liberals will treat him once their nemesis Hillary Clinton is out of the picture. These journalists seem to always pick on the Democrat.

I'm worried.

Look at this graph:
http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2008/president/us/general_election_mccain_vs_obama-225.html#polls

[Name removed]

1. Deleted message

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[marlonjose]

4. I wish it were that simple n/t

[Tesha]

16. One wonders why we don't win more elections then.

After all, a *REAL* Democrat hasn't won election since Jimmy
Carter in 1976.

Tesha

[cali]

19. Because the swelling of dem ranks is relatively new

most of it coming since 2005. And it corresponds with a shrinking of the repuke rolls.

[Tesha]

23. But we didn't win in 2006 like those numbers would suggest either.

Frankly, I think "72 million Democrats" is a pipe dream.

Tesha

[cali]

28. We won more seats in more districts in 2006 than

anyone predicted. And we'll win at least 8+ seats in the House and 4+ seats in the Senate this year. The House will look something like 242-193 and the Senate will look like 54-44-2. We'll win Reynolds' seat in NY, Davis' seat in VA, Shays' seat in CT and several more in the House. We'll also win the VA, NM Senate seats and probably CO, NH and a couple of others.

[Phillycat]

53. Registered Dems don't vote.

Broken-glass Republicans always do.

[Tesha]

60. Thanks. (But it was a rhetorical question, of course. ;-) ) (NT)

[peacebird]

24. then how do you explain two terms for GWB? we WERE America, fool, and we let it slip away.

[Freida5]

2. Add in Bloomberg and Obama loses

[karynnj]

12. Bloomberg has less of a rationale to run if Obama is the candidate

His rationale was likely to be that both candidates represent the extremes and the broad middle is unhappy. If either McCain or Obama are in people around them have said that they take that argument away. I know McCain is pretty conservative - but he is not completely in line with that part of his party - so much so that some will hold their noses. I also know that Hillary is not extreme - she would be more popular here and less electable if she were.

Bloomberg is more a threat if it is HRC/Romney.

[Maribelle]

25. But doesn't Bloomberg consider Ted Kennedy the extreme left?

And isn't the Kennedy family's ability to use the spirit of JFK and JFK's grandchildren for partisan party politics exactly what Bloomberg hates?

Whenever possible, Obama is attempting to glue himself to Ted, as he did at the State of the Union address.

As the Republican debates took center stage at the Reagan Library last night, Nancy Reagan facilitated that stage where each and every one of the Republican participants were able to capture Reagan's spirit.

I was surprised at how jealous I felt and the disappointment I had that the Ted and Caroline Kennedy's have prevented Democrats from doing this.

It will be interesting to see how this plays out with Bloomberg.

[karynnj]

59. But JFK is not considered extreme - and that is what Caroline Kennedy brings

You are correct that he does not seem to like Kennedy.

Knowing he was considered a Democrat until he ran as a Republican in 2001, I looked at donations that go back to 1979. His donations prior to 2001 were mostly Democratic but eclectic. He does not appear to have been a Kennedy fan or HRC fan - but he gave money to very liberal Democrats running for the MA Congressional delegation and he appears a long time Bradley and Dodd supporter. He does appear to be a McCain fan.
http://www.newsmeat.com/fec/bystate_detail.php?city=New+York&st=NY&last=Bloomberg&first=Michael

From this - I would guess he supports McCain. He gave money to Romney against Kennedy for Senate, but unless I missed something - not in his later run for Governor. (In the Senate run, he played the role of a liberal Republican) He did give some money to Bill Clinton in 1996 and 1992, but also gave to other Democrats in 1992 and to Republicans including Steve Frobes!

I don't know if the Democratic candidate matters in terms of if he would run. He clearly is not a HRC fan - he gave to Dodd and Corzine in 2000 and not her, though he is a NYer. I see no proof that he likes Obama better - he does like Leiberman better. (The Leiberman contribution may show where he is on Iraq. Given that, he could hurt McCain more than either Democrat.) This looks like he prefers the Republicans left - other than Huckabee, who is not going to win.

[GalleryGod]

18. No add in Bloomberg and McCain crashes..

Mika thinks Bloomberg is a riot.......

[Adelante]

3. A Democratic candidate who did not vote for the IWR

A Republican candidate who did.

It's a winner :thumbsup:

[Tyler Durden]

5. He wasn't in the senate yet to vote for the IWR.

BOTH of them are supporting the war.

Pick another issue: this one's a LOSER for me personally.

[Adelante]

13. Pick your issues and I'll pick mine

I'm bored with your DEMANDS.

[cali]

20. Let wholeheartedly agree. n/t

[karynnj]

17. As Kennnedy and Kerry have said he was on the record against the war then

Clinton has tried to lie that he himself was always against the war. He has also distorted Obama's 2004 comments. The worst distortion was when he said Obama said there was no difference between him and Bush. What Obama said if you read the whole paragraph (from the Chicago Tribune) was that his goal was no different than Bush's - a stable Iraq, BUT his view of how to get there matched Kerry's in that it stressed diplomacy. Bill Clinton was doing to Obama what the RNC did (and the lapdog media followed) to Kerry in 2004. It was slimy then for the RNC and slimy now for Clinton.

Funding the war is NOT supporting it - unless you think Kennedy is supporting it. (I think the only difference in Obama on Iraq bills is Kerry/Feingold which he did not vote for - nor did anyone likely at that time to run other than the 2 sponsors. Edwards was against a deadline then. So, I think you are left with Kuchinich - who is out of the race.

Of those left - look at their advisors and key supporters. Who is more likely to change our foreign policy away from the increasingly imperialistic policy we have had for about 50 years?

[Maribelle]

45. Oh please. Obama lied so much yesterday in Colorado against Hillary's record I'll bet he can...

stick the end of his forked tongue in his ears now.

Give me a freakin break on this Staint Obama pomp.

[karynnj]

58. I did not say that Obama was a saint

As to lying, where's Bill? You did not counter what I said - the Clintons - both of them have made it a point to lie about Obama's record.

[Jawja]

6. AND a Republican

candidate who wants more of the same: war, war and more war.

I wouldn't count Obama out against McCain.

[Skittles]

9. the average American right now does not give a F*** about Iraq

right now the flavor of the week is economic and the MSM has not tied crap like the war to their economic woes yet

[Jawja]

22. So maybe the Dem candidate

will have to tie the never-ending war and deficit to the economy?

Sounds like a good campaign strategy to me.

[Skittles]

48. it would be a good strategy

Americans simply don't know the truth about all the factors that are combining to crash the economy - and how throwing money at us isn't gonna solve a f***ing thing

[SammyWinstonJack]

27. Very true.

[opihimoimoi]

7. Its an unspoken Pub Plot...to get Obama Nom'd....they see him as the easier to beat in the GE

so they do whatever they can to tip the odds in their favor...

Obama might just do it by being a better candidate than first thought. For the Republicans, This might be a case of "BE CAREFUL OF WHAT YOU WISH FOR....

[robbedvoter]

8. America doesn't want permanent war. Sure MSM will turn on Obama the second

they'd know they installed him. But the fact remains, MCainb is more Bush - and people had had it.
Of course, that was the case in 2004 as well, and they had to fix it. And foe my sanity, I'll stop my speculations here. I am hoping we get a candidate who respects the voter a bit more.

[Clarkansas]

10. You know that Perot and Dukakis lead polls this far out, right? eom

[rox63]

11. Put 71 year-old McCain on a debate stage with a young, vibrant Obama

And figure out who's the one to take us into the future.

[Maribelle]

21. Obama has been poor in the Democratic debates. I'll bet he has been heavily coached for tonight.

Obama has difficulty talking off script.

[SammyWinstonJack]

29. Just how many Americans watch the debates?

[Maribelle]

31. While they might not watch, the ensuing news cycles are wall-to-wall issues from the debates.

And most Americans are heavy into the news.

[Meshuga]

38. More than the debates...

Nomination acceptance speeches. Imagine McCain's and Obama's. In 2004, Bush got a bounce from the convention when the MSM was having multiple orgasms for his speech.

Obama will appeal more to independents than the same old McCain who parroted Bush in the past few years with his support for the war in Iraq. McCain is Bush without the evangelicals.

[Maribelle]

41. Yep - we saw those EXACT independents go for McCain over Obama in New Hampshire.

Independents sent Obama down the Saco River in a life raft in New Hampshire.

[Meshuga]

44. Is that right?

FYI, New Hampshire Independent vote:

Independents for Obama – 50,052
Independents for McCain – 33,063

So, what do you mean when you say "independents go for McCain over Obama in New Hampshire"?

[Maribelle]

47. And? Are you quoting exit polls? The truth is Obama and all of MSM had him way ahead of Hillary..

based on independents.

Give it up.

[Meshuga]

49. I will favor exit polls over Diebold anytime.

and besides... Since exit polls are shit in your opinion, where do you get the data that McCain beat Obama as far as independent voters? Please explain.

[Maribelle]

14. The evisceration of Romney by McCain is a clay model for Obama.

McCain absolutely eviscerated Romney last night charging Romney with wanting a time-line for withdrawal. It didn’t matter if McCain’s charges were true or not. McCain was able to control the debate by keeping it on the subject of winning in Iraq.

The die is cast. The remainder of the Republican hierarchy now, one by one, falls in line with McCain.

In Rudy’s backing of McCain earlier in the day, Rudy clearly hit the nail on the head, pointing to where the main focus of the remainder of the Republican 2008 campaign will be, when he said McCain was the most qualified to be the next Commander-In-Chief at the very second most Republicans were also exalting the spirit of Reagan.

The Republicans would absolutely toast Obama on this one issue alone.

[Byronic]

15. It is rarely what the issue is

that matters in an election, but how that issue is framed.

Bill Clinton was brilliant at framing the debate, as was Reagan in all honesty.

What will the debate be this time and how will it be framed? It isn't always as obvious as it appears right now.

Take 1980, Carter tried to tag Reagan as an irresponsible, overly-hawkish, unstable finger on the button. Carter had a very valid point. The choice between Carter's sensible diplomatic approach and Reagan's unpredictable, possibly hot-headed one. But that did not become the issue. Reagan framed the issue as: "Are you better off than you were four years ago?"

LBJ had more success framing the national security issue against Barry Goldwater in 1964, which included the infamous 'Daisy Girl' ad.

Bill Clinton seized on Bob Dole's nostalgic yearnings, to frame the issue as a choice between Dole's 'Bridge back to the 20th century' and Clinton's forward looking 'Bridge to the 21st century'.

We must frame the debate and not let the Republicans do it this time.

[Hersheygirl]

26. Have any of you nay sayers really had a good look at the

republican candidates? Or listen to them last night? You think the American people are that stupid they would let any of them near the White House? Well, while the people were not to smart in 2000 or 2004, I think they have learned from the last 4 years and are not going to be put thru that hell again. Now take your pessimism and get out of my sandbox.

[SammyWinstonJack]

35. Your sandbox? And how many people actually watch the presidential debates anyway?

You hope they have learned from the last four years what they didn't learn the previous four years before that and before that even. I guess we shall see if that is true.

[Maribelle]

39. When you were listening to the debate last night, did you notice the well-oiled machine in action?

Do you think the American people are that stupid that they would reelect Bush in 2004?

[Byronic]

40. Reminds me of the old Adlai Stevenson line:

A lady comes up to Governor Stevenson and assures him: "Mr Stevenson you have the vote of every thnking man in the country".

Adlai replies: "Yes, but I need a majority to win."

I now respectfully leave your sandbox.

[Phillycat]

54. Underestimate the power of stupid people in large groups at your own peril.

[Dawgs]

30. Two groups(that have never vote) will vote for Obama over McCain.

African-Americans and voters under 28 are desperate to vote for Obama. How many non-Republicans in those groups do you think will vote for McCain.

That is all you need to know.

Obama - against war from the beginning.
McCain - for 100 more years of war.

[Maribelle]

34. McCain will point out how Obama flip flopped. First against, then voting for funding.

Obama would not be able to escape the true facts, never mind the stuff McCain would make up.

[mtnsnake]

32. If Obama is our nominee, everyone better pray their asses off that McCain isn't his opponent

Obama vs McCain would be the end of us. He'd have a chance against Romney, though.

[tekisui]

33. You are delusional if you think America *wants* McCain.

The far right hate him. The Dems can't stand him. He appeals to a handful of *Indys* who haven't paid attention to him since 2000, and some moderate conservatives. But, Indys and moderate conservatives like Obama, and so do the Dems.

When America gets a new fresh look at Old Man Cain, the polls will change, and quick. he's a "Bore for War".

[Maribelle]

37. One point that you need to keep in mind: the Bush reelection of 2004.

Republicans care more about the party than who they want. The "far right" will fall in lock step.

[tekisui]

42. I don't buy it anymore. Not this time.

The base is fracture and suffering an identity crises. They are no longer a unified Party, they have become a fractured coalition that is barely hanging on. The puke lawmakers still fall in lockstep, but the voters have been disenfranchised. The religious right is waking up to the fact that they are exploited for votes, then ignored.

The "far right" will stay home in large numbers. They are not excited about this election. The neo-cons are content to sit this one out, let a Dem inherit chimpy's mess, blame them and try again in 2012.

[Maribelle]

43. The Presidential Primary results in Florida ungraciously refutes your claim.

Hillary shattered all Democratic records in Florida. And I am extremely proud of her.

But don't for a single second ignore the true fact that Republicans shattered all Republican records in Florida at the same time.

Floridians will clearly remember how Obama and Kerry said the voters of Florida don't count. Sadly, Obama gave Florida away to the Republicans, a huge strategic mistake.

[tekisui]

46. You can't count on Florida anyway.

If the Dems had been allowed to campaign there, and the delegates respected, the Dem turnout would have shattered the pukes, just as it has in every other state thus far. As unfortunate as it was, what happened in FL was an anomaly.

I hope that whoever becomes our nominee can seat the FL and MI delegates in a fair way, and I hope that the voters of FL, especially the Dems and Indys , realize the choices they are faced with in November and make the correct choice. To hold a grudge and risk handing the country to a Puke would be punishing themselves even more. I have faith in the FL Dems to do the right thing.

FL can't be counted on, regardless, to deliver a Dem. We can get it without them, if needs be. Let's see what the turnout is in Ohio and Illinois, Missouri and the Western States.

[Maribelle]

50. If, if only, but, would have, doesn't cut it. Reality does.

The actual record-shattering Republican turn out screams thousands of decibels above the worn-out whimpers of Kerry and Obama. They were part of the six million households that received Obama's "national" campaign advertisements all the while Obama cries "if only I had a chance to campaign in Florida". Those six million households were not hardly all democratic households.

I'm so sick of Obama supporters insulting the intelligence of Floridians, truly.

[tekisui]

51. I respect the intelligence of Florida voters.

I respect their vote. I think it was tragic what happened. Power players made decisions, and the voters lost. The People lost. I'd be mad as Hell if I lived in FL. As it is, I live in a state that votes so late, I have never had the opportunity to cast a deciding vote. I can empathize.

I don't blame any Floridian if they are offended enough to boycott the November vote. I wish they wouldn't, regardless of who the nominee is.

You are right, Clinton had an impressive victory there. I congratulate you and Hillary. It proved to me the kind of numbers she can get.

My apologies if I offended you. Florida is a big, diverse state and everyone's votes should count, for every election.

I am left with the "well, what now?" thought. It seems the fair thing to do, at this point, is seat the delegates. I hope they do that.

As far as the General Election, I hope the Dems can do something to win back the voters, I don't know what other than seating the delegate, but something. And, we can't depend on FL, but we can win without that dependence. It will be harder, but not impossible or improbable.

[polichick]

36. If it's McCain and Obama...

We'll see how people really feel about the war ~ with McCain, we'll be over there for decades!

[UALRBSofL]

52. Look at the Rasmussen polls

It favors McCain over Hillary and Barack. I live in florida and I can't tell how people feel because we havn't had anyone campaigning here other then the republicans. Just my guess, I think it will go red, but I think it's possible to win without florida.

[Maribelle]

56. Six million households in Florida received Obama's "national" campaign ads.

Floridians are not stupid regarding this "we haven't had anyone campaigning here other than..." horse-hockey.

I'm so happy that as a Floridian you help perpetrate this myth and insult the intelligence of your fellow Floridians. :sarcasm:

[polichick]

62. That's ridiculous - an ad campaign is the tip of the iceberg...

My family in Florida is anxious to see a lot more of Obama.

[polichick]

61. It's amazing to me that people have put concerns about the war...

...on the back burner.

[rucky]

55. McCain's a fossil. People want change. n/t

[Stop Cornyn]

57. I'm worried generally that we have cleverly narrowed the field to 2 candidate who do poorly against

McCain.

I'll work my ass off for our ticket, but I won't be one of those asking "what happened?" if we are swearing in a McCain administration less than a year from now.

[FrenchieCat]

63. But why do you think that Edwards would have done better?

Exactly what attribute did he possess that could have beaten a war hero? Please tell us.

[Stop Cornyn]

68. (1) head-to-head polling and (2) Edwards emphasis on populism had cross-party appeal. Let's just be

prepared to unite behind Hillary when she gets the nomination because she's going to need all the help we can give her.

[susanr516]

66. Yeah, Stop C--

I agree.

[jillan]

64. All I want from Obama right now is for him to show that he can fight.

Hillary is quick with a comeback, and I want to see that from Obama.
If he doesn't learn how to fight, he doesn't have a chance to win against McCain - imho.

[AtomicKitten]

65. Bottom line: Obama fares better in matchups with the GOP.

[Spider Jerusalem]

67. The right running mate could make all the difference in an Obama/McCain matchup.

(Or for that matter, in a Clinton/McCain matchup.)

The best potential tickets I see against McCain/whoever:

Obama/Jim Webb, or Clinton/Wes Clark. As running mates, they both bring very strong national security and defence credentials to the table, and both are on record with opposition to the rationale for invading Iraq; either would serve to balance perceived weaknesses in a Dem candidate vs McCain.