Super Tuesday Projection: 1/30

[jefferson_dem]

...from Ambinder.

Super Tuesday Projection: 1/30
30 Jan 2008 12:35 pm

Based on polling and analysis and interviews with campaign officials.....

Hillary Clinton has an edge in New York, New Jersey, Tennessee, Oklahoma and Arkansas.

Obama has an edge in Idaho, Minnesota, Kansas, Alabama, Georgia, North Dakota and Illinois.

The following states lean to Clinton right now: California, Connecticut

The following entities lean Obama right now: Colorado, Democrats Abroad

True tossups: Arizona, Delaware, New Mexico, Utah, American Samoa, Alaska, Massachusetts

For Republicans, I'd say John McCain has a distinct edge in California, New York, New Jersey, Alabama, Massachusetts, Arizona, Connecticut and Tennessee.

Mitt Romney has an edge in Utah, Maine, Montana, Alaska, West Virginia.

Mike Huckabee used to be the governor of Arkansas.

And Missouri is a toss.

http://marcambinder.theatlantic.com/archives/2008/01/super_tuesday_projection_130_1.php#comments

[NJSecularist]

1. Obama needs to make in-roads in Mass., California, NJ

Or else it will be a tough day for him. He needs to make those races respectable, these two states are the biggest realistic bounties for him.

California is also vitally important. He's not going to win, but he could bridge the cap

And personally I think he has this wrong... CT is a toss-up and Mass is firmly Clinton's right now.

[rinsd]

3. "CT is a toss-up and Mass is firmly Clinton's right now"

Agreed.

What we could see is a fairly close delegates race but one candidate having bigger momentum thanks to number of wins.

[NJSecularist]

5. We'll see how the polls react in the next few days in regards to Kennedy's endorsement

but Mass is by far the more important state and as of right now Hillary has a commanding lead.

[rinsd]

2. MA a tossup? poll from the 1/22-1/23 has her up 37 points?

I know the Kennedys have sway but that kind of sway?

Also polls taken around 1/24 have Hillary up double digits in AL, AZ, OK & MO.

[book_worm]

4. I think you're right about most of this. CT, Rasmussen has 40-40--a toss up

[MadBadger]

6. The Endorsement of Richard Codey today for Obama helps in Jersey

He was a popular guy who endorsed Edwards but has switched to OBama.