Which red state is most likely to go blue?

[Mattforclark]

Which red state is most likely to go blue?

EV = electoral votes

Dual with:

http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=view_all&address=132x426487

[BagoDem]

1. Now that Gore's not running....

Watch Tennessee go blue.

[newyawker99]

19. Hi BagoDem!!

Welcome to DU!! :toast:

[Mattforclark]

20. welcome!

[Nicholas D Wolfwood]

2. Ohio's lost a ton of jobs...

and they're pretty pissed off. I think Ohio is prime to fall. Also, I think Arizona should be on this list. They are beyond pissed about the immigration issue and we just got a Democrat elected governor there (and a female one at that!) Plus, they've had an influx of people moving to that state. Where are they coming from? Illinois and Massachusetts, two blue states.

[Kolesar]

5. I hear that Minnesotans are moving to Arizona

and it is not just in an episode of "tales from Lake Woebegon". Arizona is becoming prime Dem country, according to the authors of the Emerging Democratic Majority (Texira(sp?)).

[Mattforclark]

8. Lake Woebegon

Garrison Keiler is great.

I need to read Emerging Democratic Majority..

[Kolesar]

12. There was a summary of the book on Salon.com a few years ago

I am reading State and Local Politics and the LWV guide to Ohio government at this time.

[Zech Marquis]

24. definitely go for Ohio

all of those good paying factory jobs GONE...and last night on MSGOP, the repuke Governor Taft was spinning so fast he kept rpeating himself over some 20,000 new jobs just added :eyes:

a simple ad idea--run ads repeating te infamous "outsourcing is good" and,"working at mcDonald's is a manufacturing job" soundbites, ESPECIALLY in Ohion, West virginia, Michigan, and the South like SC, GA, TN. For nevada, run * talking about Yucca Mountain.

[Mattforclark]

3. Average EV

of endangered blue states:

14.7,

10.222 (without California)



Average EV of endangered red states:

10.5

[blm]

4. Ohio, definitely, and I am certain of Nevada.

Bush lies on Yucca Mt. lost Nevada for him. Kerry voted against Yucca.

[Mattforclark]

7. Kerry needs a good ad on Yucca mountain

ominous music...

nuclear waste...

show nukes going off in Nevada test site...

fades to:



"The only use George Bush has for Nevada is a place to throw the dirty laundry of Nuclear waste. Not only is he endangering Nevada, but he is endangering all of the communities through which nuclear waste will be carried by trucks... That's why I voted against Yucca mountain, and that's why I approve this message. etc."

fades to:



Combine with a bit of other stuff on the environment.

Ominous music is key.

[Atlant]

9. Won't matter. Libertarianism trumps eventual death by radiation. (NT)

[Bromd]

6. Ohio, Definitely

Things were too close in Ohio in the last election and I have no doubt that it will swing over considering the shenanigans that Bush has been pulling. I consider them to be on par with a malicious and spoiled child.

[Eurobabe]

10. if I have to pound my relatives out there in OH

i can deliver about 8 dem votes

[Spider Jerusalem]

11. You mean red, this time 'round...

the colours in electoral maps come from the traditional colours used in designation of forces in military war games. The defenders are always blue.

[Mattforclark]

13. I think tradition will be broken this year

CNN's electoral map yesterday had Dem states as blue and pub states as red.

It is well, because

Red = blood, Commieism.

Blue = the favorite color of the largest # of people.

[AntiCoup2K4]

14. Where's the "none of the above" option?

There won't be any red states crossing over for Kerry. You read it here first.

[Mattforclark]

15. Way to be optimistic!

[Kolesar]

16. I live in Ohio and I voted Nevada

Gambling, drinking, partying, and girls...that sounds like Clinton country! Oh, and the Yucca Mountain high level nuclear dump for fuel rods is a factor.

[ShaneGR]

17. Since I'm from Ohio, I'll comment

John Kerry should LIVE in this state. I simply cannot see a way Bush carries my states unless Kerry "Gores" us and pulls out of the state.

[Bombtrack]

18. Look at the numbers. It's clearly FL and NH

More likely FL because it's had bigger population than almost all states

St EV Margin# Mrgn% Gore, Bush, Nader, other 3/4 of Nader+D
- Margin
FL 27 537 0.01% 48.84% 48.85% 1.63% 0.68% +1.21

OH 23 165,019 3.51% 46.46% 49.97% 2.50% 1.07% -1.64

MO 11 78,786 3.34% 47.08% 50.42% 1.63% 0.86% -2.12

AZ 10 96,311 6.28% 44.67% 50.95% 2.98% 1.40% -4.05

CO 9 145,518 8.36% 42.39% 50.75% 5.25% 1.61% -4.42

WV 5 40,978 6.32% 45.59% 51.92% 1.65% 0.84% -5.08

NV 5 21,597 3.55% 45.98% 49.52% 2.46% 2.04% -1.71

NH 4 7,211 1.27% 46.80% 48.07% 3.90% 1.23% +1.65

AR 50,172 5.44% 45.86% 51.31% 1.46% 1.37%

[Cuban_Liberal]

21. AZ and OH, IMO.

:)

[Anaxamander]

22. Florida (nt)

[The Magistrate]

23. Ohio Seems Most Likely, Sir

West Virginia and New Hampshire are also promising.

"LET'S GO GET THOSE BUSH BASTARDS!"

[jmaier]

25. Actually, I see very good potential in several

NH, AZ and OH