How John Kerry Can Win in November.

[David Zephyr]

John Kerry is probably smack dab in the very middle of the American political mainstream. It is actually George W. Bush who is not in "the center" and is, rather, on the radical right-wing fringe.

I think one of the good things about Ralph Nader running is that it will keep Kerry and his campaign worried and anxious to protect their base from an insurgency from the Left. This will keep him from the following: 1.) needlessly pandering to so-call independent, yet conservative voters, and 2.) wasting time and money in futility to win many of the Southern states that are simply out of reach.

Here's a little factoid: With the change in demographics within the nation in the last 4 years alone, Al Gore would now have won the election by a shockingly wider margin than he did. This is a direct result of population growth within minority communities and with a dying of older, white (conservative) voters.

When nearly half of all eligible voters don't vote, the gold is to be found mining there, not pandering to religiously backward people who are stubborn in their soup of racism, sexism, xenophobia, faux-patriotism, homophobia, militarism and superstition.

John Kerry can remain John Kerry and win. Here's how:

1.) By choosing Wes Clark as his running mate, Kerry would then have both Clark and Bill Clinton together helping deliver Arkansas whose electoral votes would make winning Florida not even necessary should the rest of the states fall in the same pattern as they did in 2000 (which they are likely to do). And lest the John Edwards crowd complain, check out how close the Gore/Bush vote was in Arkansas compared to that in North Carolina (Bush beat Gore 51% to 45% in Arkansas with a 50,000 vote margin as compared to Bush beating Gore in North Carolina 56% to 43% with nearly a 600,000 vote margin). Cherry-pick Arkansas and forget trying to win North Carolina.

2.) Then concentrate away from the South, besides Arkansas, Louisiana and Florida. Work Missouri, West Virginia, Arizona and Nevada.

Pandering to the right will not help John Kerry one bit. It will make him look opportunistic at best and silly at worst. Pandering to the right-wing will also only further the cause of Nader and alienate those on the Left who would still like to vote for him.

--DZ, Claremont, CA

[DenverDem]

1. You speak like a pro,

hopefully Kerry's staff has someone as wise as you and John is wise enough to listen.

[David Zephyr]

9. And The Corollary to This Is

How John Kerry can lose which would be being trapped into letting Bush set the agenda and debate making Kerry pander to the right and thereby losing his base.

Michael Stanley Dukakis learned this lesson the very last weeks of the election in 1988 when it was too late.

I'm certain that Kerry has competent advice within his campaign, but like all things, his campaign will be a dynamic condition of many competing thoughts and, sadly, motivations independent of his.

Kerry, to his credit, ran one of the best primary campaigns that I have ever seen...so good that he crushed everyone else including my candidate. That should have Karl Rove worried.

[Name removed]

2. Deleted message

Message removed by moderator. Click here to review the message board rules.

[rfkrocks]

3. why do you say so?

[David Zephyr]

4. Hijack Another Thread.

[MurikanDemocrat]

5. Kerry had BETTER be opportunistic about winning this election.

[lams712]

6. I basically agree, and I think that Kerry ....

...won't turn his back on the base like other Democrats in similar positions have. We should not get too bogged down in the electoral map. We only need to hold what we had and flip ONE other state. With Nader not being as big a factor, this should be a little easier.

If we get an energized base, we can't lose, NO MATTER WHAT the Republicans do. In 2000, the Republicans pulled out all the stops and still lost (for all intents and purposes). In 2004 we are (for now anyway) more energized and Nader will be less of a factor. This election is winnable, but we need to keep up the energy.

[David Zephyr]

11. Great Avatar Image, Lams712

:hi:

[blm]

7. I think he wins by being himself, too.

He's liberal on almost every issue and he should stick to who he is. I don't mind his moderate tone to appeal to the middle, though. I actually like that.

[David Zephyr]

13. He Ran the Most Effective Democratic Primary Campaign in Modern Times

where an incumbent Democrat was not in the race.

His campaign was disciplined and ran over all the others including my candidate. That bodes well for him against Bush.

[AZCat]

8. I thought Clark had ruled out a VP slot...

Am I wrong in remembering this?
What other prominent dems are available that have not been self-eliminated re. Clark?

[David Zephyr]

15. You May Be Right, AZCat

But I'd personally prefer Clark over who my hunch tells me will be Kerry's running mate.

My hunch is that Kerry will choose Gephardt for VP since Missouri is such a squeaker and it has a mother-lode of electoral votes, but will probably make a big deal of making Wes Clark Secretary of State in targeting Arkansas which is very winnable for the Democrats.

Both Missouri and Arkansas are in play, whereas North Carolina is not reachable...even with Edwards on the ticket.

[coloradodem2005]

10. Makes a lot of sense.

I hope Kerry follows your advice.

[David Zephyr]

17. Cherry-Picking a Few Pivotal Key States

can make it happen in November rather than trying to appease a "region" of the country or appealing to fickle conservative independents.

Kerry will win the popular vote just as Gore did. The challenge is to clearly win electoral votes.

All he needs is Gore' 2000 states + one.

[nothingshocksmeanymore]

12. The next few months are going to be brutal from Bush et al

So far Kerry has weathered the Bush game well. If he is left standing in three months, he will win.

[David Zephyr]

19. Disciplined Campaign.

He ran the most successful primary campaign in modern Democratic history. They will be "brutal" indeed. I guess the Bush Ads will begin almost any minute now.

[Crewleader]

14. I agree David

selecting Wes Clark for VP would be a very smart move on Kerry's part and everything else you mentioned, you know your politics my friend!:-)


:hi:

[IrateCitizen]

16. Don't lose sight of the VP forest by focusing on trees...

Of course, the immediate reaction to Kerry's all but wrapping up of the nomination is to start postulating VP candidates. And it is only natural that among those first considered are other candidates for the nomination, simply because they are in the biggest light right now. But that won't necessarily be the smart thing to do. Here's an excerpt from the latest "Online Beat" by John Nichols, courtesy of The Nation. My personal favorite pick is the last one, although I'm not so certain it would be the best choice electorally (Doggett or Napolitano in those instances).

http://www.thenation.com/thebeat/index.mhtml?bid=1&pid=1295

Among the people Kerry might consider are:

* New York Attorney General Eliot Spitzer, the single most effective battler against corporate abuses in either political party. Spitzer has been a watchdog on Wall Street and a fearless advocate for consumers. He's also got a great track record as a defender of women's rights. Spitzer's smart, he's quick on his feet and he already has achieved a stature that extends well beyond New York's borders.

* Wisconsin Senator Russ Feingold, the sole opponent in the Senate to the Patriot Act and the most prominent Democratic advocate for campaign finance reform. Feingold's got a far better record than Kerry on issues of concern to working Americans and farmers, meaning that he could be a particularly effective advocate for the ticket in the swing states of the Great Lakes and the upper Midwest.

* Texas Representative Lloyd Doggett, one of the savviest and most effective members of the current Congress. He's a former state Supreme Court Justice with a great legal mind. And wouldn't it be interesting to hear a Texas- accented voice explaining the folly of the war with Iraq, the Patriot Act and other Bush initiatives?

* Arizona Governor Janet Napolitano, who would bring to the ticket varied experience and a base in the southwest -- an emerging swing region. Born in New York, Napolitano moved to Arizona after law school, helped represent Anita Hill, served as U.S. Attorney for Arizona and was elected that state's attorney general in 1998. Four years later, she beat a top Republican to win the governorship.

* California Representative Diane Watson, a veteran Los Angeles educator who served on the Los Angeles Board of Education, as a state legislator, and as the U.S. ambassador to Micronesia before her election to Congress in 2001. A fierce critic of the Bush administration on education issues, she is, as well, one of the most consistent advocates in Congress for media reform. And, as a passionate and highly-energetic African-American woman, she could do a tremendous job of maximizing turnout among the party's base voters.

* Illinois Representative Jan Schakowsky, the truest heir to Paul Wellstone in the current Congress. An able grassroots organizer and a skilled communicator, she is one of the most energetic members of the current Congress. And she is arguably its most aggressive progressive. Schakowsky is often the first member of the House to voice criticism of the latest Bush administration misstep -- she had a statement out on Haiti before the administration had even started spinning. As a vice presidential candidate, she would drive Karl Rove and his crew crazy by outmaneuvering them at every turn. And it is almost too delicious to imagine her debating Dick Cheney.

[David Zephyr]

21. Good Points, IrateCitizen.

and anybody who posts from The Nation is AOK with me.

[David Zephyr]

20. Hey Crewbaby!

That would put two vets on the ticket further eroding the Bush base.

[Nederland]

18. Disagree on a few points

1) Demographic changes do not favor Democrats, they favor Republicans. Republican states like Texas have picked up electoral votes and Democratic states like New York have lost votes.

2) John Kerry may run mainstream, but his voting record is very liberal. Anyone who voted against DOMA is hardly mainstream.

[KoKo]

22. Kick....not so sure about Wes Clark as VP.....not prone to liking

"Military" as Heads of Govt., but think there are some interesting points here....I need to think about it more.

[Waverley_Hills_Hiker]

23. Im picking up on that AZ & NV thing

Dont know what Kerrys numbers are in Nevada, but hes doing good in AZ, so a Southwest Strategy might make some sense.

[David Zephyr]

25. Southwest Strategy.

Lots of electoral votes.

Socially liberal and tolerant region.

Bush turning Nevada into a nuclear dumping ground alone makes that state ripe for picking.

So, I agree with you on this, Waverley_Hills_Hiker.

[KoKo]

24. He just might squeek by in NC....hard to know, but population has exploded

since 2000. My impression is that most are Northern Repugs...but they may turn on Bush. Edwards might not be as popular here as a draw for VP as one would think.

I think writing off the South might be wise. I hate to see that happen, but unfortunately looking outside NC, I don't seem much beyond Fundie Bush supporters in my neighboring states. It still could change but those folks in those states who are definitely Repug in the South will have to come to the Dems on their own. I don't see putting that much money here, when Bush will be pouring in big bucks any way he can because he knows he can't lose the South.

So, David, your strategy does make good sense in many ways.

[David Zephyr]

28. Thanks, KoKo.

I just don't see any good coming from Kerry kayaking down the dark and treacherous waters of pandering to irrational cultural conservatives who won't vote Democratic anyway and which will only help alienate his base...a base that Nader is paddling for as well.

And John Kerry should watch "Deliverance" once again, for old time sakes, with the banjos pumped up high on his Bose Surround Sound System there on Beacon Hill...and then target the winnable states in the midwest and especially the Southwest.

P.S. I saw your other thread about giving money to MoveOn.Org. I think it's a great idea and that's exactly what I am going to do!

:hi:

[displacedvermoter]

31. What about Kentucky, a surprise perhaps if you take the

recent Chandler win as a good omen? And could Oklahoma be in play, even if enough to make Bush spend money in a state he should have in the sack? Curious little things I've heard say that might not be a crazy thought.

[JPJones]

26. Close, but no cigar

Due to changes in demographics, the Gore states plus Arkansas is 266 EV.

Add New Hampshire to AK and you have 270.

[David Zephyr]

30. You Are Right With Regards to Electoral Votes, But

I was speaking strictly about popular votes, "With the change in demographics within the nation in the last 4 years alone, Al Gore would now have won the election by a shockingly wider margin than he did." I have heard that Gore's 540,000 margin might now be greater than 1 million.

Still, we have already been down the road of winning popular votes and having the election stolen through contested electoral votes which was the motivation for my thread.

My #1 and #2 suggestions for Kerry winning dealt strictly with electoral votes which is why I hope he will target the winnable states and I don't think that risking the entire election on the dicey proposition that John Edwards can deliver North Carolina is a sound strategy.

[PurityOfEssence]

27. More than anything else, he simply has to BE HIMSELF

He's an uncomfortable and awkward guy. So what? He should be that way. Whatever one thinks of him, he's wound up on the right side of things a hell of a lot more times than someone of his background and personality.

He shouldn't wear costumes keyed to the event, and he shouldn't try to be all things to all people; he's already enough things to more than enough people that he has nothing to hide.

He should stay true to himself, and he can continue in the mold of an FDR; he pointed out this example himself, and it's prescient.

Just as Junior gets a lot of sympathy for being dumb and simplistic, Kerry has a constituency for being uncomfortable and reserved; most people would characterize themselves as a bit shy, and that's fertile ground to plow. If he stays true to himself, many will find many different reasons to like him.

[David Zephyr]

32. We Agree!

That's why I wrote in the originating post, "John Kerry can remain John Kerry and win."

When you write, "If he stays true to himself, many will find many different reasons to like him," I couldn't agree more.

The thing that struck me about Kerry the most as he began to whip his opponents, including my very own candidate, to shreds was how he didn't change who he was in Iowa, how he just kept at it no matter how bad the polls were, John Kerry remained John Kerry.

I like that.

Will you still have a margarita with me, POE?

[nothingshocksmeanymore]

33. I'm willing to be the designated driver

[David Zephyr]

35. Driving In Cars With Teena!

Damn. How can PurityofEssence turn that down? I owe him at least a Cadillac Margarita.

[Name removed]

29. Deleted message

Message removed by moderator. Click here to review the message board rules.

[David Zephyr]

34. My Business Partner Who Voted For Dean Said The Very Same Thing You Did

He told me today at lunch that Kerry will win in a landslide because people can no longer stand Bush. I wish I was that optimistic, but I will open the shutters of hope for one single nanosecond long enough to say that I hope you are right, KerrySupporter.

[Mayberry Machiavelli]

36. Agreed. It is a referendum on the incumbent.

Incumbent = crappy pres