Clinton not dented in new polls

[sunonmars]

New USA GAllup polls today have not dented Senator Clinton's support in California or New York

Clinton still winning CAlifornia by over 12 in a High turnout election (47 to 35) and by 18 (51 to 33) in a low turnout Election.

Voters in CA believe Clinton can beat the Rep cand. by 60% to 30% to Obama.

Voters believe 61% to 23 % Clinton can get things done in Washington.



In NY its 2:1 Clinton 56% and Obama 28%

Clinton beats Obama in Electibility by 61% to 23%

Clinton beats Obama by 71% to 23% in Can get things done in Washington.

On the economy Clinton wins 51 to 20%, with 13 to Edwards.

Thats a big wide gap to pull up.


Those are big wide margins going into ST.

[libbygurl]

1. Let's hope these numbers hold up. By the way,...

...could I ask some help keeping this fine Paul Krugman piece kicked and recommended:

http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=show_mesg&forum=103&topic_id=334613&mesg_id=334613

[ElsewheresDaughter]

2. absolutely k&r

[libbygurl]

4. Thanks much! nt

[elixir]

6. I'm a newbie, how do I K&R? Thanks.

[libbygurl]

17. Hello there, and here's a warm welcome to DU! To kick a piece,..

...one simply leaves a comment on it. To recommend a piece, there's a link you can click on located on the lower left-hand corner of the original article's window.

Thanks for the k & r!

[robbedvoter]

40. Welcome to DU!

:hi:

[MadBadger]

3. 12 points isnt a wide margin. When were these polls done?

[DemocratSinceBirth]

8. That's The Best Case For Obama

In a high turn out primary he loses Cali by twelve...In a low turn out primary he loses by eighteen!


http://www.gallup.com/poll/103984/California-Poll-Clinton-Leads-McCain-Romney-Close.aspx

[MadBadger]

14. First of all, we know there will be high turnout... and this race will tighten up.

The poll was taken before SC, There still is a week until Super Tuesday, and things can change.

[sunonmars]

16. After tomorrow night when people see Hurricane Hillary smash Florida

They will sit up and really take notice.

[book_worm]

34. the media has already dismissed Florida just like they dismissed Michigan

[aquart]

35. Very funny.

Laughing just so much.

[cali]

23. Actually not. just listened to "On Point" and

that was decidedly not the conclusion of Peter Hart or the CA analyst they had on. She said that Obama was very shrewdly targeting districts for the delegate hunt, and both Hart and this woman believe that Kennedy's endorsement will have a real impact and that the polls will tighten considerably. They think the race is much closer than you do.

[UALRBSofL]

9. That's what I was wondering?

When were these polls taken?

[MadBadger]

12. It was taken before SC--Jan 23-26.

[Cameron27]

5. Fingers crossed!

K&R

[suston96]

7. Florida counts.......

Even if it is a "beauty contest" it will still reflect what happened on Saturday in SC.

[Tatiana]

10. California will tighten up.

Obama is finally pulling his ground came out there (esp. So Cal) together, while Clinton has had a presence for a long time now.

NY, however will be a blowout.

[forsberg]

19. will it?

The larger the state, the harder it is for it to "tighten up"

California made up its mind a long time ago.

HILLARY!

[Tatiana]

32. Hillary will probably win it, but I think Obama will pull closer.

All of California has not "made up its mind." Yes, Hillary has a lot of superdelegates and leaders promising their support, but you have rank and file folk like those in the California Teachers Association (who nixed their organization's planned endorsement of Hillary) that will break Obama's way.

[sunonmars]

27. I understand NY gives a large amount of Delegates just for winning

and then splits the rest.

[Tatiana]

36. 83% are pledged to a presidential candidate.

"In accord with the Party Call, the Delegation shall consist of two hundred eighty (280) delegates and thirty-nine (39) alternates. Of the Delegation, two hundred thirty-two (232) delegates and all alternates shall be pledged to a Presidential Candidate."

151 (District Level Delegates)
51 (At-Large Delegates)
30 (PLEO Delegates)

If the polling #'s play out (say, Clinton gets 55%), that's almost 130 pledged delegates, not counting the superdelegates. If you add in the supers, it's possible that Clinton could walk away with anywhere from more than twice as many delegates as Obama.

[sunonmars]

37. no actually

the 232 are the regular delegates, the other 48 are superdelegates and Clinton has those already.

I hnik something like 130 goes to the winner and the rest split, i'm sure i read it somewhere.

[Tatiana]

38. It's based on proportional voting in the primary, provided the candidate reaches the 15%

threshold. But the 48 are unpledged (or supers) as you have indicated. Thanks for correction. I am not sure that Clinton has "all" those, however.

[sunonmars]

44. She has, all 48 have pledged her as Super Delgate apparently.

[Rosa Luxemburg]

29. I think it will

a week is a long time in politics!

[MadBadger]

11. Poll was taken Jan 23-26, all before SC

[Joe the Revelator]

13. These are pre-SC polls, how can you say she wasn't dented

with a straight face?

[UALRBSofL]

21. Wolsh

If it were before the SC primary then I don't think these numbers are accurate today. However, I'd like to see how tomorrow's primary in florida will affect the polls as well.

[forsberg]

15. ha! So much for South Carolina

Let's face it, that state was pretty much gift wrapped for Obama demographically. It'll be Hillary in a Super Tuesday route

[MadBadger]

18. Hey buddy, why dont you try reading the other posts, then get back to me.

[forsberg]

22. Obama got no SC bounce, his win was expected

[MadBadger]

25. He was expected to win by about ten points....He won by 28.

[forsberg]

30. well alot more african american showed up at the polls

and who are they going to vote for, Obama of course. it was his state to begin with. if few of them showed up, he wins by 10, if alot show up, he wins by 28.

[pampango]

28. Shhh. Dude check out post 11 above or click on the link in the OP. n/t

[pampango]

24. Perhaps forsberg thinks that polls are taken the same day they are released.

;)

[Beacool]

20. Crossing my fingers that the numbers hold up!!!

Thanks for posting!!

[Rosa Luxemburg]

26. HRC is expected to win NY

things may be closer in CA.

[Seen the light]

31. BEFORE SOUTH CAROLINA

HOW many times will people keep posting this #1 like it's new and #2 like it's post-SC?

[book_worm]

33. I see you provide no link probably becuz all are before SC and two Kennedy endorsements.

[Rageneau]

39. Don't CA and NY each have more delegates ALONE than all the primaries till now combined?

I'm too lazy to look it up, but I'm pretty sure than California and New York both have more delegates ALONE than Iowa, NH, NV, and SC have -- COMBINED.

If that's true, doesn't it mean that it means more to win in one of these two states than in a half-dozen others?

[sunonmars]

45. its actually 5 times as many.

[shayes51]

41. Good news!

[totodeinhere]

42. After what happened in N.H. you are still paying attention to polls?

[Awsi Dooger]

43. This is not a fluid election

With Hillary in the race it's immune from huge shifts in either direction. That will be true of the general election also.

I don't understand how the accepted theme for more than a year can be Hillary is a polarizing 50/50 candidate with 100% name recognition -- yet always the frontrunner -- then in mid primaries we want to deny the basics, and pretend she is eligible to tank big time.

State results vary based on demographics. And statewide polling is lousy in primaries. That's what were seeing now. It's been discussed on this forum for as long as I've been here, late '02.

Hillary has the foundational and long term edge, based on white women, Hispanics and older voters, and that will play out on February 5.