Brand New Florida Poll-Clinton-50% Obama 30% Edwards 12% RCP AVG INC

[DemocratSinceBirth]

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2008/president/fl/florida_democratic_primary-261.html



http://www.realclearpolitics.com/articles/docs/012808FLPRESBP.html


“Even with Sen. Obama’s landslide win in South Carolina, he still trails Sen. Clinton by 20 points and a comeback of that magnitude in the final hours would be virtually unprecedented in recent political history,” said Brown. “Moreover, the demographics of the Florida Democratic electorate are not nearly as favorable to Obama as was the case in South Carolina, where more than half the voters were African-American.



Florida is not awarding any delegates but I think the fact that it is demographically very similar to the twenty two states and primaries that will be voting on February 5th the numbers do have some relevance...Here's a link to demographic information about Florida and the rest of the nation...The indices suggest they are very similar:


http://quickfacts.census.gov/qfd/states/12000.html

[mckeown1128]

1. OMG she is going to get all of those zero delegates in FL...nt

[zanne]

3. HAH! How true.

Florida's vote means nothing to me in the primaries; why should it? No delegates--no winner.

[DemocratSinceBirth]

4. If The Demographics Are Similar To Super Tuesday States Why Isn't It A Dry Run For Super Tuesday?

~

[Teaser]

6. the Demographics aren't actually that similar

If I put those proportions in a contingency table, they would obviously not be from the same population.

[DemocratSinceBirth]

16. Well- No State Is Going To Exactly Match The Nat'l Average

I certainly can't think of one... Folks always bring up California but Cali has twice as many Hispanics and half as many African Americans as the rest of the nation on a percentage basis...

[panader0]

17. I didn't look at the link, but I agree

The demographics in Florida are unique. Lots and lots of old white retirees. There's an enclave like that near Phoenix called Sun City, and they are solidly Repub.

[DemocratSinceBirth]

19. There's Eighteen Million People In Florida

Yes, 16% of Floridians are over 65 as opposed to 12% for the rest of the nation but other than that it's pretty similar...

I can pick out any state and find a demographic that makes it atypical...But demographers look for trends that make them typical...

That's why so many restaurants and other businesses use Florida for pilot programs to test new products...

[zanne]

7. Florida is a very conservative state.

When you compare it to MA and California, you have to admit that even the Democrats in Florida are Republicans.

[DemocratSinceBirth]

11. 48%, 49% And 47%

Those are the numbers that the Democratic candidate received in the last three presidential elections in Florida...Those are within two percentage points of the share of the popular vote that the Democratic candidate received at the national level...Florida is a bellweather state...

[zanne]

13. I thought you were talking about the Floriday Primary...

Dems in Florida are very conservative and they'll vote for the most conservative Dem, which is Hillary.

[DemocratSinceBirth]

27. I See Your Point

Florida Dems aren't as liberal as California or Massachusetts Dems but they are as liberal as Missouri or Georgia Dems so it all works out...

I suspect you could find a study of the attitudes of Florida Democrats and compare them to the attitude of national Democrats... I don't think the difference would be all that dramatic...

[cali]

12. how on earth do you figure that. You live there. You know better.

How is FL like KS, CO, MO, MA or CA? It's not. And as you're aware FL has many older white retirees. In fact, 10% of Floridians are ex-New Yorkers.

[DemocratSinceBirth]

21. Heres' The Census

http://quickfacts.census.gov/qfd/states/12000.html

There are thirty three indices...Florida is statistically indistinguishable from the rest of the nation on thirty or so of them and on the three or so where they aren't it's not that far off...

[mckeown1128]

18. FL shouldn't be a dry run for super tuesday because...

The vote wont be accurate. Many will opt out of voting since it is for ZERO delegates. That is why the MI vote shouldn't be represented in delgates. Not everyone will show up to vote for nothing.

[Leopolds Ghost]

20. Is Obama allowed to campaign in FL?

No campaign = Hillary can coast on her existing name recognition and ties to elderly New Yorkers, hawkish conservative centrist suburban soccer moms in mickey mouse towns like Orlando, and the Hispanic community.

Put it another way: what do you suggest the Obama campaign has been doing,
or should do to change the Florida non-outcome?

Given that they're both supposed to be boycotting FL, and Hillary is
running nationally as an incumbent which makes her the default candidate
for elderly and less-active Democrats?

[CreekDog]

23. Because they didn't campaign in Florida

A dry run would be somewhere both candidates campaigned.

[Uben]

2. and remember

Florida is a big factor in the GE!

[Teaser]

5. Obama will lose, but not by that margin

.

[Bullet1987]

8. I don't think Obama will lose by 20 points either...

and why Clinton supporters on this site keep bringing up Florida is beyond me.

[hogwyld]

10. We will see as Florida is an early voting state

and I'm sure a lot of votes have already been cast. So there is a negligible SC bounce to be had there.

[zanne]

When Hillary wins a primary, you project her as the nominee...

When Obama wins a primary, you call him a loser. Pathetic.

[DemocratSinceBirth]

29. I Think You Are Projecting

First of all , most but not certainly all of my observations are of the empirical variety...I pride myself on being a logical positivist...

Second of all I don't think I have ever suggested, implied, inferred, whatever that Senator Obama is a "loser"...

DSB

[zanne]

33. You're no impartial observer, DSB. nt

[DemocratSinceBirth]

30. I Think You Are Projecting

First of all , most but not certainly all of my observations are of the empirical variety...I pride myself on being a logical positivist...

Second of all I don't think I have ever suggested, implied, inferred, whatever that Senator Obama is a "loser"...

DSB

[zanne]

15. dupe

[Medusa]

9. It's a dog and pony show

and Hillary plans on puttng on her "blue ribbon" performance by flying down there and declaring "Victory" on Tuesday. What a farce.

[Labors of Hercules]

14. it is a farce. An even bigger one than Michigan...

But I still hope we will see a record upswing of younger voters in Florida like we have everywhere else.

[Maribelle]

22. This morning Obama is tripping all over his tongue pandering to Floridians

He will make sure they will be seated at the convention?


He will!


:rofl: Remember all of his supporters spitting hate towards Hillary for saying the same thing?

This morning Obama is rattled for a reason.

[madrchsod]

24. any results from florida are worthless

why do people think results from florida have any validity....

[NJSecularist]

25. Where are people getting this notion that the demographics of Florida...

are very close to most of the Super Tuesday states and that the results here are a indicator of what is to come on Super Tuesday?

Because it couldn't further from the truth.

[DemocratSinceBirth]

32. Here's The Census...You Can Decide

http://quickfacts.census.gov/qfd/states/12000.html

[Avalux]

26. Wow - Hillary's really kickin ass in Florida! Amazing.

:eyes:

[UALRBSofL]

28. A double digit win in florida gives Hillary a boost on super tuesday

Even though DU discount's the double digit win in florida the average american that will be keeping an eye on the Florida primary will be influenced by the great showing and all cameras will be on Hillary tuesday night.

[DUyellow]

34. The cameras will be on the republicans, dems will be a sub story

[MadBadger]

31. Jan 24-27, meaning only one day after the SC results.

[robbedvoter]

35. Are we allowed to even say Florida? Will DNC not send the DNC cops after us?

:shrug:

[book_worm]

36. Since Obama and Edwards have not been campaiging in FL I think they are doing fine.