The Race for Delegates is NOT Over

[jamess]

Delegate rules in Super Tuesday states might not produce clear front-runners

...
In a two- or three-person race such as the Democrats', proportional allocation means candidates will win some delegates in virtually every state, raising the possibility of a tie, or at least an unsettled race, after Super Tuesday. If there's no final decision on Super Tuesday, operatives in both parties said, attention would turn to primaries in Texas and Ohio on March 4, in Pennsylvania on April 22 and in other states.
...

"We're in uncharted territory," said Burdett Loomis, a University of Kansas political-science professor.

http://www.orlandosentinel.com/news/politics/orl-campaign21a08jan21,0,1579937.story
----

Well let's take time for an objective analysis of that Delegate Race ...
Sometimes a Picture or two is worth a 1000 rants ...


I've compiled the Delegate Counts from CNN's Politics page, as of the morning after the South Carolina Primary:

http://www.cnn.com/ELECTION/2008/primaries/results/scorecard/#D

These CNN Counts include Pledged Super Delegates.



These Pie Charts tell the story a still quite competitive race:


Pledged Delegates for the first 4 States




Pledged Delegated for ALL States




Pledged Delegates for ALL States Vs ALL Remaining Delegates






I've also supplements this with the Unpledged Delegates from Super Tuesday:

Starting with the baseline numbers from this Election Lineup site








As most objective analysis are now admitting, this still won't be decided by Super Tuesday. 1902 Delegates are up for grabs that day -- no one Candidate is likely to get enough of them, to get to that Magic number needed to win: 2025

Pledged Delegates for ALL States Vs Number of Delegate needed to win





So the race is still on ... it's a long ways from over.
A lot can happen in 3 months.

The best thing to do is to GET BUSY, supporting your Candidate.

As Professor Loomis noted well:

"We're in uncharted territory"

It's probably a good time to dig out those maps:

the Feb 5th Schedule:

Alabama (60, PP);
Alaska (18, CC);
Arizona (67, PP);
Arkansas (47, PP);
California (441, PP);
Colorado (71, CC);
Connecticut (60, PP);
Delaware (23, PP);
Democrats Abroad (11, PP+CC);
Georgia (103, PP);
Idaho (23, CC);
Illinois (185, PP);
Kansas (41, CC);
Massachusetts (121, PP);
Minnesota (88, CC);
Missouri (88, PP);
New Jersey (127, PP);
New Mexico (38, PP);
New York (281, PP);
North Dakota (21, CC);
Oklahoma (47, PP);
Tennessee (85, PP);
Utah (29, PP)

http://www.thegreenpapers.com/P08/ccad.phtml
----

The fight to Take OUR Country Back Continues

(as does the Fight to Keep it, no doubt.)

[tekisui]

1. Super delegates are not pledged. Other than that, these are great points

to remember. We have a long way to go, and we still won't have a clear winner after BigTues.

[jamess]

5. Our Voices are still NOT being heard

This elections SHOULD be about fixing past,
NOT ridiculing and discarding the past.

Justice demands righting past wrongs,
Like those neglect of New Orleans,

NOT just the building of some "brave new world",
with a "new kind of politics" and "nice thoughts".

Our Voices are still NOT being heard,
among the shouting rabble of "yes we can".

Obama has the rhetoric, of change,
for not the hard work, and commitment it takes
to make change happen, IMO.

Feel Good Politics just won't get it done.

NYTimes

Candidates Outline Ideas for Universal Health Care

March 25, 2007

Senator Barack Obama of Illinois appeared less conversant with the details of health policy and sometimes found himself on the defensive, trying to explain why he had yet to offer a detailed plan to cover all Americans.

“The most important challenge is to build a political consensus around the need to solve this problem,” Mr. Obama said.

http://www.nytimes.com/2007/03/25/us/politics/25dems.html?_r=5&oref=slogin&oref=slogin&oref=slogin&oref=slogin&oref=login

[AX10]

2. This thing is far from over.

[havocmom]

3. Thank you. Very easy to understand with the graphics you provide.

Another check to Edwards going out come payday. Small check, but if others do same, it just might help get the leadership we need.

[jamess]

4. thanks havocmom

Edwards continues to Fight for the nomination
and so will I

His cause is just!

The People deserve a Voice,
exactly because the COM does not give us one.

MLK III asked Edwards to continue the Fight for social justice
and I'm sure John will.

[havocmom]

6. Hope you don't mind. I pinched one of your pie charts to my photo host

and will post it along with link to this thread at every opportunity. Most educational.

edit: typo

[jamess]

14. No problem

post away

that's why I made the charts

[IsItJustMe]

7. All the more reason why JE should stay in all the way through the convention. Even if he don't win,

there is no telling what type of influence he will have when it's all said and done.


Go, John, Go.

[Blue_In_AK]

8. Mmmmm, I LOVE pie.

Nice charts.

[waiting for hope]

9. jamess - you are the King of Graphs!

I love it!

K&R! for Edwards!

[jamess]

10. thanks hope

you are too kind.

[halobeam]

11. I'm surprised this only has four recs!

Someone linked this thread from another thread or I would've missed it.

Thanks very much for these charts. They show us how much left there is to fight for. Even those of us who know better than to listen to what the media is only telling us, sometimes don't realize HOW much more there is to the story that isn't being discussed.

I knew Obama would take SC, but there is so much left for Edwards to win. I will take the endorsement from MLK Jr's son, as a sign to fight on with John.

[southern_belle]

12. Louisiana votes Feb. 9th -

I don't know how many delegates we have???? :shrug:

[jamess]

13. Louisiana has 66 Delegates in a primary

which takes place Sat Feb 9th

http://www.thegreenpapers.com/P08/ccad.phtml

don't forget to vote!

[havocmom]

15. Kick for the work week

There is lots of work to be done and every reason to do it!

:kick: