28-point win even shocked Obama campaign

[TeamJordan23]

28-point win? Once again, polls missed it

January 27, 2008
BY CAROL MARIN [e-mail]

COLUMBIA, S.C. -- When David Axelrod, Barack Obama's star strategist, walked into the cavernous convention center here Saturday, the polls in South Carolina had not closed yet.

But he knew.

The exit numbers had hit his BlackBerry like a lightning bolt right before he arrived. He'd been with Michelle Obama at the time, he told me. When he looked down at the tiny screen and saw the numbers, he said he blurted out, "This can't be!"

That apparently was enough to stop Michelle Obama's heart for a second.

"What?" Axelrod said she urgently demanded.

When she realized it wasn't unexpected bad news but phenomenally good news, Axelrod recalled with a laugh, "She told me, 'Don't ever do that to me again!' "

For those of us who obsessively read campaign blogs and watch an abnormal amount of cable chatter, the reality of this presidential season finds pollsters and pundits stuck on Mars while voters are on Venus.

So it was here in South Carolina this past week.

While polls had Obama somewhere between 8 and 15 points ahead of Sen. Hillary Clinton, they also showed his white support dropping to 10 percent.

On Thursday, when I asked Obama to predict the outcome, he smiled and took the road of lowered expectations: "I think somebody will win by less than 10 points, how's that?"

Nobody -- nobody -- saw a margin of nearly 30 points.

News people and campaign operatives alike are horse-race-driven, conflict-craven, poll-possessed souls. It's in our DNA.

But the conflict, the negative ads and the over-the-top conduct of Bill Clinton backfired with voters.

And they put all of our political quarterbacking to shame.

Full article at: http://www.suntimes.com/news/otherviews/761937,CST-NWS-marin27.article

[Unsane]

1. Gobama!

[OzarkDem]

2. Odd, GOP crossover perhaps

The GOP would much prefer to run against Obama in the GE.

[TeamJordan23]

4. Yep, because he defintely is not getting the most Independent voters of our nominees, right? nm

[cali]

5. gee, that's original. it's also clearly not true from what I'm reading

and hearing. chew on those sour grapes, honey. It's a shitload of fun to watch.

[babylonsister]

7. I'm sure that's why Obama got so many more votes.

:rofl: That's a straw I hadn't seen grasped yet!

[Adelante]

8. Actually Edwards took slightly more GOP votes than Obama

I think it was 37% Obama and 40% Edwards.

[SoxFan]

9. Wrong

The exit polls indicate that only a small number of Republicans voted, and those that did favored Edwards.

[BeyondGeography]

10. Black turnout was up 2X over the 2004 SC primary; 18-24 yr. olds up 3X

real GOP types there.

Nice try, though.

[MadBadger]

11. Republicans supported Edwards actually

He led in that vote.

[Laurab]

12. I disagree - I think HRC is the GOP's dream candidate.

Also, I think she's the only one of the top three who could possibly lose the general. She would GOTV like no one else, just for the wrong party.

[Occam Bandage]

13. Actually, Edwards was the beneficiary of GOP votes in SC. Which makes sense;

Southern Republicans are the ones most likely to be terrified of a black man or a woman becoming President.

[ErnestoG]

19. pffft. LOL!

You should do stand up.

[aquart]

3. "The over the top conduct of Bill Clinton."

Well, how dare he.

[thoughtcrime1984]

6. Gobama!

.

[Kermit77]

14. LOL! David almost gave Michelle a heart attack!

I am so happy about his big margin of victory.

[populistdriven]

15. K&R! nt

[Barack_America]

16. And that highlights why none of these Super Tuesday polls are to be trusted...

Thanks for posting that!

:hi:

[usregimechange]

17. That rules!

[DeepModem Mom]

18. K&R