"Clinton leads in 19 of 22 Super Tuesday states"

[Seen the light]

Let's take a look at when the last polls were taken in these states shall we?

New Jersey: 1/19/08 (a week ago) Clinton
New York: 1/18/08 (8 days ago) Clinton
Georgia: 1/22/08 (4 days ago) Obama
California: 1/17/08 (9 days ago) Clinton
Arizona: 1/22/08 (4 days ago) Clinton
Alabama: 1/23/08 (3 days ago) Clinton
Connecticut: 1/13/08 (13 days ago) Clinton
Oklahoma: 1/12/08 (2 weeks ago) Clinton
Colorado: 9/14/07 (um....last year) Clinton
Illinois: 1/23/08 (3 days ago) Obama
Utah: 2/11/07 (oh dear God...) Clinton
Missouri: 1/23/08 (3 days ago) Clinton
New Mexico: 9/5/07 (last year) Clinton
Arkansas: 12/14/07 (last year) Clinton
Delaware: 10/6/07 (last year) Clinton
Idaho: 7/12/07 (last year) Obama
Minnesota: 9/21/07 (last year) Clinton
Tennessee: 1/20/08 (6 days ago) Clinton
Alaska: No data
American Samoa: No data
Democrats Abroad: No data
Kansas: No data
North Dakota: No data

Only *7* of the Super Tuesday states have been polled in the last WEEK. Of those, Clinton leads in 5 and Obama in 2.

Now, I'm not about to sit here and pretend that Obama doesn't have his work cut out for him in these states, but we've seen time after time after time that he narrows the gap in these polls when it's actually time to vote. For example, Clinton's biggest margin of victory in a state so far has been 5 points. Obama's biggest margin has been 28 points. Obama has won 2 states and so has Clinton. In all 4 states, Clinton started off with HUGE leads. So if you think Clinton is going to just roll over Super Tuesday in a cakewalk....you're in for a big surprise on February 5th.

[Why Syzygy]

1. Wasn't she leading in SC? n/t

[Maven]

2. No.

Not for several weeks before the primary.

[Windy]

10. Yes, she was up twenty percentage points at one time.

she lost ground after Iowa, gained ground after New Hampshire and before Bill got involved, she was within the margin of error.

Obama had a clear victory here. Face it. Hillary only won NH and NV by small percentages. It was a landslide vote in SC which means it was across all demographic lines. This is very significant.

I think it bodes well for him.

[Maven]

16. Yeah, at one time, way back when.

The fact is she wasn't expected to win SC for several weeks.

And I would really tamp down the hubris after this big win, if I were you--it didn't work out so well for you after Iowa.

[Windy]

19. oh yes, he was just trounced wasn't he... he was still up one in delegates coming into SC

I'm simply stating facts.

You may want to send a note to the clinton camp to put a muzzle on Mr. Clinton if they want hillary to have a chance of pulling this out.

[Maven]

23. More hubris.

Not good for you.

[Proud2BAmurkin]

33. before Obama was born

[Seen the light]

3. Indeed she was.

In fact, other than possibly Illinois, I don't know of a single state where she hasn't had huge double digit leads at one point.

[IsItJustMe]

36. National poles only show BO a few points behind HRC, and thats with a margin of error. Don't kid

yourself, BO can easily pull this off, especially with his win tonigt. The fat lady is no where in sight righ now.

[Labors of Hercules]

40. uh... not to bright though.

might want to reread the post you're responding to.

[DJ13]

5. Wasn't she leading in SC?

Up until a month and a half ago, by a 2:1 margin over Obama.

[Drunken Irishman]

6. She was leading BIG in SC, Nevada, New Hampshire and Iowa.

She split those states, but didn't win big. In fact, she lost the delegate count in Nevada and essentially tied Obama in New Hampshire. The two biggest wins of the primary season have come from Obama's camp: Iowa by 8 and So. Carolina by 30.

[goodgd_yall]

12. She hadn't been in the lead in S.C. since December

And at that time it was a small lead. The last time she had a large lead in S.C. was early November.

Reference: www.realclearpolitics.com

[BringBigDogBack]

43. yes.

[Dark]

4. We can only hope.

Please, dems, Hillary will hurt us in the national election.

[Tulkas]

7. Polls will move after this HUGE win

Also Barack can get back on message if the attack dog has been muzzled.

[rodeodance]

20. You assume those big states care what happens in SC..

[Tulkas]

48. I think people care.

[alcibiades_mystery]

8. Good for her

Nothing to worry about, then.

Let's keep it clean.

:thumbsup:

[Windy]

24. exactly, keep it clean, dignifed and democratic. If she is right on the issues,

she won't have to worry right?

[neutron]

45. She's been smeared

in the blogs and on cable news.
The right wing is in this primary bigtime.
They always get us to pick off our strongest candidate.

[polichick]

9. I think the victory tonight will change those numbers...

It was a big moral victory ~ against what is perceived as the same ol' dirty politics. It was hope in action.

[Windy]

13. Agreed! It proves that the american public wants no more rovian styled politcal games.

Stick to the issues and don't try and bully your way into the whitehouse.

[goodgd_yall]

15. South Carolina is in the South

I don't think what happens there transfers easily to other parts of the country.

[Seen the light]

17. Why not?

:shrug:

[neutron]

46. Like Maher said: it was an OJ Simpson repeat

A junior senator isn't enough of a qualification to be a candidate.

[arewenotdemo]

51. Maher said that? If so, he's quite the idiot.

[ISUGRADIA]

59. a junior senator like Hillary?

[calico1]

56. Overwhelming number of AA's are

registered Democrats in SC. A minuscule number of Hispanics which isn't a reflection of a lot of the big states. It's a good win for him of course, but I am more interested in seeing how states like NY, NJ, CA and AZ vote.

[CatnHat]

27. Not likely

Obama's win proved nothing. The playing field is level. With all the squawking going on, seems to me the only candidate raising above it is Edwards. I wish these voters can rise above gender and race cards, and see who really has the interest of this country at heart. Let the other two duke it out. Its a shame that this primary had "hopes" to make history. Obama and Clinton have royally screwed things up. Obama turned out to be just another "politician".

[bigdarryl]

11. With a almost 30 point lead coming out of tonights primary EVERY THING has changed so throw those ..

polling numbers in the trash this race is going to tighten up

[Egnever]

14. Agreed today doesnt do much

It helps obama to be sure but he still has a tough road to the nomination.

[rodeodance]

18. Rollover? Hillary? she is figher!!---and all FIRED-UP

So if you think Clinton is going to just roll over Super Tuesday in a cakewalk....you're in for a big surprise on February 5th.

[Windy]

21. Well, she better put Bill in a box... the American people don't want anymore of his dirty politics

he hurt hillary in SC. There can be no doubt of that.

[rodeodance]

37. Bill will do what he does best--talk with people

[gorekerrydreamticket]

55. Yep, he worked magic in SC....n/m

[neutron]

47. The Right Wing WISHES

she'd put Bill in a Box. That's exactly where this BS spin is coming from.

[HILLBILL]

49. hurt Hillary in S.C.

He sure did by crying about racism for the last five days knowing the chicken shit media not wanting to offend any black people would just bash the hell out of the Clintons for him. No wonder the polls are changing when thats all you hear on TV because their all in his back pocket. HOW PATHETIC

[Bright Eyes]

22. Do we know what the "Keith Number" is

in these states?

[still_one]

25. Thanks, I guess it is over now, we should all go home and wait for the general election

appreciate the heads up LOL

[doc03]

26. The MSM did their hit job

on Hillary in SC and I suspect there will be more of the same in the other states. It doesn't really matter to me if either Hillary or Obama get the nomination both will lose the general election. Why is it the Republicans pander to their base to get the nomination and the Democrats try to get as far away from their base as they can. One thing can be said we are really good at snatching defeat from the jaws of victory. So far we are running true to form, run a corporate Democrat and suffer through 4-8 more years of Republican rule then whine about the election being stolen.

[still_one]

29. So if Hillary or Obama are the nominee, then there is no point voting

because in your infinite wisdom you have said they will lose the general election

thanks

[doc03]

32. I am one that thought

exactly the same thing when the MSM picked Kerry in 2004. I work in a Union shop and I haven't heard one co-worker say they would vote for either one. Just this morning a guy was telling me that Obama was a Muslim and wouldn't even swear on the Bible when he was sworn into the Senate. So fine vote for Hillary or Obama but don't whine about the election being stolen.

[still_one]

35. I noticed you are from Ohio, and after what Ohio has been through

if your associates continue to vote against their own interests in 2008, that is quite sad

[doc03]

38. I agree totally but give us a

Democrat we can vote for, not another corporate Democrat. You know who gets the blame (Clinton) when someone talks about our jobs being sent to China or elsewhere. Clinton pushed NAFTA and the WTO through, I know it was with mostly Republican votes but the Democrats still get the blame. Our industry in particular was decimated under Clinton when he refused to enforce trade laws against the Asian countries when they were dumping steel in this country. He was more worried about saving the Asian economy than us workers in the US. Edwards would win in a landslide in Ohio but the Democratic candidate is always selected before we ever get to vote.

[still_one]

60. I am no Clinton fan, and agree with everything you said. Very little options at this point /nt

[Tatiana]

28. Obama certainly has his work cut out for him.

With McCaskill's endorsement, I think Missouri will break for Obama. I also think Alabama and Colorado will go in the Obama column. I think Obama will be surprisingly competitive in Arkansas and Tennessee.

However, Clinton has Cali on lock-down, as well as New York. I'd be interested to know what the numbers for Massachusetts look like.

[still_one]

30. The interesting thing is that you just try to get as many delegates as you can

anything can happen

[Zorro]

31. The South Carolina vote is ultimately irrelevant

South Carolina's open primary results are not very representative of registered Democratic voters nationwide.

IMHO -- as goes California on February 5th, so goes the nomination.

[MoonRiver]

42. Yes, but it gave untold Obamaniacs a terrific runners high!

[calico1]

57. I wouldn't take it away from them but I agree

with the previous poster. CA, NY, and other more diverse states will be the real test.

[K8-EEE]

34. This is a fluid race and things can change fast.

You gotta figure at least half of those would change to Obama after SC momentum.

[zulchzulu]

39. Delegates, primary vs caucus map

There will not be a decisive winner on February 5th. I bet it comes down to Wisconsin on February 19th!

[BenDavid]

41. when well teh iq's of the 65 and under leave the du. DAMN! if

anyone believed those high polling numbers back in july, august etc etc then please in thefuture do not trust any polling right off teh cuff.......obama folks hrc folks edwards folks day in and day out said not to take serious the polling until....until what? until the state race got closer and then you would see better polling results for each candidate.......

Yes the polling will change as 2/5 gets closer but will not change becasue obama won south carolina.....I still say hrc will win 75% of those states like :*******************means a clinton win
New Jersey: 1/19/08 (a week ago) Clinton**********************
New York: 1/18/08 (8 days ago) Clinton************************
Georgia: 1/22/08 (4 days ago) Obama
California: 1/17/08 (9 days ago) Clinton**********************
Arizona: 1/22/08 (4 days ago) Clinton*************************
Alabama: 1/23/08 (3 days ago) Clinton
Connecticut: 1/13/08 (13 days ago) Clinton********************
Oklahoma: 1/12/08 (2 weeks ago) Clinton***********************
Colorado: 9/14/07 (um....last year) Clinton*******************
Illinois: 1/23/08 (3 days ago) Obama
Utah: 2/11/07 (oh dear God...) Clinton************************
Missouri: 1/23/08 (3 days ago) Clinton************************
New Mexico: 9/5/07 (last year) Clinton************************
Arkansas: 12/14/07 (last year) Clinton************************
Delaware: 10/6/07 (last year) Clinton*************************
Idaho: 7/12/07 (last year) Obama
Minnesota: 9/21/07 (last year) Clinton************************
Tennessee: 1/20/08 (6 days ago) Clinton***********************
Alaska: No data***********************************************
American Samoa: No data***************************************
Democrats Abroad: No data
Kansas: No data***********************************************
North Dakota: No data*****************************************

[Muddy Waters Guitar]

50. Dream on

and keep taking those meds. What we've found consistently is that Hillary has an early lead in those states before the campaigning starts-- due largely to name recognition alone-- and then, that lead consistently melts away by the time of the voting. That's because both Edwards and Obama run better campaigns on the ground and drain Hillary's support away.

The only answer about what'll happen on Super Tuesday is, we haven't the foggiest idea. We really don't know, and the campaigns in the interim will be very interesting. Remember, Obama didn't just beat Hillary in SC-- he more than doubled her votes, won White as well as Black voters. And Edwards did much better than most expected, he's still very much in this as well.

[KitchenWitch]

44. And yet, the votes have not been cast.

[Hardrada]

52. These polls are meaningless at this point.

[democrat2thecore]

53. All those polls were before the Bill Clinton Road Show that has embarrassed America -nt

[GalleryGod]

54. I was looking at the box score...

"Little Pup" fouled out..

[cooolandrew]

58. Over optimism is a dangerous thing. As supporters we must work just as hard as him til the last min

[populistdriven]

61. K&R! nt