Kerry vs Bush Electoral Map

[BGrier]

Has anyone seen this particular Kerry vs. Bush electoral projection?

http://www.presidentelect.org/e2004.html

I think they have Iowa in the wrong column. I don't know about the rest. Any thoughts on the map or who is behind the site?

[Ediacara]

1. I am not sure who's behind the site

but I think all their light blue states should be pinkish except maybe Florida.

[Hippo_Tron]

2. Bush will not carry ANY Gore states...

Putting people out of work doesn't make you popular.

[BGrier]

5. True.

Yeah, I noticed they have New Mexico firmly in Bush's column too - that's not right.

[anti-NAFTA]

9. He might carry Florida this time

by fixing it in a more clever manner.

[renegade000]

3. i highly doubt this outcome

...and it would be a tradegy if it really did occur.

[lancdem]

4. There was a thread on this a week or so ago

A lot of us think some of the leaning-Bush states, such as Ohio and Iowa, could easily go to Kerry, and that would be enough to put him over the top.

Edit: Also, Arizona is in the solid-GOP column, and polls show Kerry running even with Bush there.

[PROGRESSIVE1]

6. Kerry will win all of the Gore states.

Kerry can win Ohio, New Hampshire, West Virginia, and Missourri.

[lancdem]

8. I think he can win Nevada, too

[IndianaGreen]

7. Bush is only 6 points ahead of Kerry in Indiana

Indiana may not be solid GOP this year. If the Democratic nominee were to spend a couple of days campaigning in Indiana, he may just win Indiana.

President, Head-to-Head, IN 2/18/2004

Bush (R) 51%

Kerry (D) 45%

http://www.surveyusa.com/currentelectionpolls.html

[saltpoint]

10. It's an interesting site.

I think they have Iowa wrong, too. Bush is in trouble in Iowa, Ohio, and West Virginia.

Indiana is probably Bush Country once more, but by a much narrower margin than a sitting Republican should command. That doesn't change Indiana, but it is a hint that Missouri may be in play.

I think the Democrats win in November and Bush junior is on the next Greyhound to Crawford.

[Endangered Specie]

11. Well, he got the colors mixed up... so Im not convinced

[ochazuke]

12. Iowa was extremely close in 2000

In fact, that whole area of Gore states: IA MN WI -- they were all close, and it'll probably be close this time too.

[Lexingtonian]

13. It's almost certainly wrong on Arizona and Nevada

The site is listed to one James R. Whitson.

The electoral map is, like all Beltway type analyses generally made by elderly white men, too certain about what Hispanic-American voters are and are not going to do and in what numbers.

Pollingwise, Iowa and Wisconsin seem to always have nearly identical results to each other. I don't know what rational basis there is for splitting one from the other in the prediction.

I think a lot of the prediction has as basic assumption that the Rove plan of turning out 3-4 million additional Christian Right voters will work, that there won't be a sufficiently effective Democratic response, and that it will carry most or all swing states necessary (and then some) for Bush. Those are three assumptions I'd strongly hesistate to buy into. (For one thing, the 3-4 million Christian Right votes that Rove is missing in his tallies could well represent many older churchgoing voters who died between 1994 and 2002 and are replaced in CR and Republican tallies by mostly more middle aged, politically scarred and relentlessly passive, voters.)

So: the site buys into Republican best-case scenarios, which are well known and publicized and internally strongly argued to be a guarantee of success in the crucial places. The Republican efforts to fully register, organize, motivate, and turn out their voters has been running for several months. It hasn't helped stem recent polls putting Kerry up by on average 50 to 44, though, so you have to wonder about its real efficacy in getting them what they want. They're running out of elderly undereducated white people.

The Democratic counterpart plan ('Plan 51/04') is by far not as well publicized, more focussed, and set to hit the ground in swing states this month. I'd say a half to one million new registations in these targetted states is what we're looking for; population growth in the Blue States will bring in the other three million we're likely to get.