SurveyUSA may show white backlash against Obama driving up white turnout and Edwards surge

[Herman Munster]

http://www.surveyusa.com/index.php/2008/01/24/what-are-south-carolina-independents-trying-to-tell-us/

The side effect of this possibly real and possibly exaggerated enthusiasm by Independents and Republicans, is that the percentage of African Americans who qualify as likely voters in SurveyUSA’s SC Democratic Primary pool has decreased from 54% in SurveyUSA’s sample six weeks ago to 42% today. The percentage of white likely voters is up from 44% six weeks ago to 55% today.

Counter-intuitive? Absolutely. But, alas, there it is in the data.

Are black voters somehow newly discouraged? Unlikely. More likely the reverse: that some whites are newly energized. Or, that some whites are newly energized to tell pollsters that they are energized.

Whether these whites are motivated with the best of intentions, or motivated by the worst that is within us, remains to be seen.

....

There are many possibilities. Here are several:

There is a genuine white backlash to the racial rhetoric in South Carolina. Some whites, possibly white males, may be newly motivated to vote for the white male Democrat in a way they were not a few weeks ago. In this scenario, Edwards’ surge is real. He may challenge for 2nd place.
John Edwards’ message has newfound appeal to a broad coalition of South Carolina voters. Managing to stay largely above the fray in the contentious Democratic debate, Edwards has managed to appear Presidential, and voters of all registrations are genuinely moving to his side. Again in this scenario, the surge is real and Edwards has momentum.
Everyone in South Carolina is fed up with the Clinton-Obama bickering, having nothing uniquely to do with race or with John Edwards. In this scenario, voters are turning to Edwards to punish Clinton and Obama more than out of genuine regard for Edwards. Even if this is the explanation, the Edwards uptick would be real.
Or, there is “noise” in SurveyUSA’s poll, and in the polls from others, triggered by the week-long hiatus between Republican and Democratic voting. While Edwards has a strong group of core supporters in South Carolina and elsewhere, the number of Independents and Republicans who show up in SurveyUSA’s likely voter pool is overstated, and Clinton will finish comfortably ahead of Edwards.

[jackson_dem]

1. Edwards has surged seven points among blacks as well this week

He is rising among both groups. Obama and Hillary are the ones who have plummeted with one racial group over the past couple of weeks. Obama collapsed with whites, Hillary went from leading with blacks to 13-24%.

Edwards' gains among whites come at the expense of both Hillary and Obama. It isn't as if he is drawing all of it from Obama. There goes SurveyUSA's racist theory against white southern Democrats. We now know who SurveyUSA is pulling for.

[midnight]

5. Thank you for having those figures to share with me. I

think Edwards message is so important that it trandsends race.

[aquart]

2. Best intention would be to vote for Obama?

Question: Does SC allow crossover voting? Can Republicans vote in the Dem primary? Can independents?

[2rth2pwr]

3. This is Edwards birth place, and he will come in third.

Hillary will pick up these newly motivated voters as a protest against the tactics of the Obama camp.

[Binka]

6. John Is Gonna Rock SC Just Wait And See n/t

[ShortnFiery]

4. RACE BAITING ALERT!

:thumbsdown:

[rodeodance]

7. your sensationalist subject lines are boring as you never back them out-