FINAL ARG SOUTH CAROLINA POLL: HILLARY CLOSES OBAMA LEAD TO 3 POINTS

[Herman Munster]

Obama 39% Hillary 36% Edwards 22%

http://americanresearchgroup.com/

[Politicub]

1. It will be a truly intersting vote

I'm hoping Hillary pulls out all the stops tomorrow and brings home a win. If not, it's on to super Tuesday.

Go, Hillary, go!!

[NJSecularist]

2. Obama should just pack up and quit if he loses tommorow

He should be embarrassed if he loses tommorow.

[joshcryer]

8. He won't do that. No way no how.

He's in until Super Tuesday at the bare minimum. Lots of Southern states he expects to get.

[NJSecularist]

27. Sure, he'll stay until Super Tuesday

But it will be a slaughter if he loses South Carolina. He would save time and money by just packing his bags. He has no chance of getting the nomination if he loses South Carolina.

[joshcryer]

35. If he loses he is done, that's for sure.

[leftynyc]

16. No he shouldn't

This campaign is very close. Super Tuesday will be interesting and all three should stay in until at least then.

[NJSecularist]

51. Are you serious?

The campaign will not be very close if Obama loses South Carolina. He is already trailing Hillary in virtually every state other than Illinois, he needs the momentum from South Carolina to have a fighting chance at staying past Super Tuesday and winning the nomination.

[leftynyc]

58. I really havn't been paying attention to polls

I got so turned off them after NH. Between the rolling 3-day polls and not polling within 36 hours of the race- they really are worthless considering the amount of undecideds. I think there is a lot of support for Obama out there and frankly, all three should stay in until at least Super Tuesday. Let's see what the people have to say.

[aquart]

25. Then don't assume he'll lose.

There's no reason to.

[wisteria]

62. Why should he be embarrassed? It is the Clinton's who have behaved shamefully.

They do not deserve to win anything.

[bluestateguy]

3. Paging the ghosts of Mayor Bradley? Mayor Bradley?

Who knows.

ARG has done some real garbage polls this year and in past years.

[MADem]

12. I've never heard of them, actually. Or if I've seen them, I haven't focused on them.

Do their assertions have any resemblance to reality (off by a reliable X percent, or what have you?), or are they totally off in LA LA land?

[bluestateguy]

26. In Nov. 2000, ARG had an election eve New Hampshire poll with Gore up 10 points

He lost NH by a little less than 1%. I've never trusted them since.

[MADem]

34. Can't say as I blame ya...! That's "off!" nt

[MADem]

4. I kinda doubt that. I'd be shocked if she came close.

Edwards is surging, too in that report.

If she can keep it within ten points, given all the trash talking that has been going on, that's as good as a win.

[robbedvoter]

33. Any of the 3 can win!

[aquart]

81. Yep.

[joshcryer]

5. HOLY CRAP THIS IS THE BEST PRIMARY SEASON EVER

[NJSecularist]

19. double post

double post

[robbedvoter]

20. I know I'll stock up on popcorn for this one!

:popcorn:

[aquart]

28. Regular little thrill-seeker, aren't ya?

[joshcryer]

32. Yes, secretly I love all the insanity of this forum. :P

I really should get into politics.

[robbedvoter]

37. I'd say, it's a guilty pleasure for me too...my 2004 experience taught me a few things

I find I can guess events ahead of others and it's fun!

[Hoof Hearted]

78. Then you need to get some money on Vegas quick.

And send any unwanted leftover cash to me? :D

[aquart]

38. Then perhaps you should change the plant in the corner.

To, say, a daisy?

[joshcryer]

44. Hahaha :D

[Seen the light]

6. And Obama is up 20 points in the PPP poll released today

http://www.13wmaz.com/news/national_story.aspx?storyid=48194

Obama leads in every single poll in SC and is going to win handily.

[NJSecularist]

7. Do you remember New Hampshire?

[Herman Munster]

10. Obama also lead in every single poll in NH

Don't count your chickens before they hatch. Zogby had Hillary within 5 points in the Thursday only sample.

[DemocratSinceBirth]

15. That Poll Is A Bit Of An Outlier..We'll See

Zogby said his Thursday polling was 36% 31% 19%...

Mason Dixon had it 38% 30% 20%...

[leftynyc]

23. With the usual 3-4 point MOE

That could be a very close race. We'll soon see.

[DemocratSinceBirth]

54. I Don't Want To Mislead You

That was only Thursday polling for Zogby; a small slice of the rolling average...

[leftynyc]

59. Thanks for the info

polls have been a joke lately. They MAY show trends, but they are really just a snapshot of the moment.

[MADem]

24. I think everyone expects Obama to win. If he doesn't blow it out, with all these

"expectations" it will be interesting.

The thing about polls closer to the election is that the "undecided" number drops considerably...

[balantz]

56. Actually, Zogby today has the numbers at 38 25 21

http://www.zogby.com/

[DemocratSinceBirth]

57. From The Survey

Thursday’s polling alone had Obama leading with 36%, but Clinton was just five points back at 31% (a good day for her). Edwards came in with 19% yesterday alone. The one-day sample was not enough to draw sweeping conclusions, but it is an indicator that this race continues to change.

[tabatha]

9. Actually, it is

Edwards who has taken some points from Obama.
Clinton has more or less stayed the same.

[HughMoran]

11. Another close one - they always get tight at the last minute

Tomorrow could be closer than expected - I'm going to say Obama 42%, Hillary 36%, Edwards 22%.

[Proud2BAmurkin]

13. No fuckin way

[bigwillq]

14. It should be fun here tomorrow!

:bounce: :P ;) :)

[robbedvoter]

17. Gloat, gloat - I told you so! My prediction - wide open!

http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=show_mesg&forum=132&topic_id=4180669&mesg_id=4180669

[aquart]

36. God punishes gloaters.

Now you sit in that corner with your hands folded and be good.

[robbedvoter]

41. Aw, al wright

:spank:

[joshcryer]

52. I love you. =P

Awesomeness. If you are right then you should get into politics.

[laugle]

18. I watched Bill Clinton tonight on CSPAN. He

was in SC. He was fantastic, an unbelievable advocate for Hillary. I hope you get to see it.

I suspect he made a large impact today, his words were full of substance and wonderful plans for this country........talk about hope and vision.......this was hope and vision with a plan.......

Even my husband woke-up to listen.......

[MADem]

30. Fuckin ' Rude- eee is on now. What an ASS.

He won't give the translator a pause to translate.

The poor guy is struggling....

Clinton did a great job. So did Edwards, earlier.

[laugle]

50. It made me remember what it was like to have someone

with a brain talking, and not that idiot in the WH who has to read 2 sentences. I'm constantly amazed at Hill and Bill's master of the issues....maybe It's 8 years of having a dummy for a president...... but geez they are both brilliant!Heaven help us all, if the rethugs ever get back in again!!

[wisteria]

63. We have been there and done this already with the Clinton's .

It wasn't all sunshine and roses. The Clinton's haven't changed. They are just betting that everyone will forget all the negatives of having them back in office. And, besides, why would we want to go backwards and re-instill the Clinton's when we need to move forward. George Bush's election was in a way, the second tern the first President Bush didn't get to have. We were lead again by all the old Bush people and look where that has gotten us.

[bellasgrams]

70. I would love to have 8 more years of Clinton. Just think, no wars,

But anyone that gets in, regardless who, won't be able to fix this mess right away. It's the worst shape I have ever seen and I'm not young. An unending, useless war, people losing their homes, costs a fortune to go to college, everything going up and up and wages have been stagnate for yrs. I could go on but you all know and I'm sure most have been touched in some way by 'W' and his cabinet of misfits.

[AlertLurker]

86. No WARS???

Bosnia-Herzegovina
Kosovo
Somalia/Ethiopia/Eritrea
Congo
Angola
Rwanda-Burundi

I am sure that there were other, but this is just off the top of my head...

[FrenchieCat]

94. Don't forget Haiti!

[bellasgrams]

68. I watched it too. I've always loved listening to him. He can talk

intelligently on any subject. Hillary is good too. They speak of what is wrong, how it can be fixed and not just flowery words.
After 8 yrs of Bush they sound even better.

[maddiejoan]

21. I wouldn't put that much stock in it.

Obama is likely to win by at least 10-15 points --and I predict Hillary and Edwards duking it out for a close race for second.

[aquart]

22. Undecided down to 2%.

And black women have left Obama for Clinton!

Holy shit. Wow, that was a hard decision.

Yikes.

[joshcryer]

40. I bet more black women leave for Clinton.

[aquart]

82. They can change their minds again.

I know I'd have a hell of a time with that decision.

[Thrill]

29. LOL. You only post the polls you like.

[Auntie Bush]

31. I think I'd be actually be happy if she lost it by only 2-3 points! I was worried that

it would be a lot more than that...like it was reported last week. I'd be ecstatic if it turned out to be another NH type upset...but I doubt it.
Then we'd hear about how she stole the election, again.

[robbedvoter]

45. She may not lose at all...Edwards can get it too

[Auntie Bush]

64. You certainly are optimistic and that wonderful.

I'll try to be more positive...something I've been working on.

OK, I can admit to making a mistake or changing my mind. I'll really be disappointed if Hillary doesn't win. It's going to be an exciting night.
My computer is acting up and I'll be sooooo frustrated if I can't post or read DU regarding the outcome. Wish me luck!

Heres to all old faithful Clarkies. :beer:

[Occam Bandage]

39. They did very well in IA and NH, as I recall. Didn't they?

[jefferson_dem]

46. They had Hillary winning by ten in IA. Every pollster was off in NH.

I think they nailed NV.

[Justice Is Comin]

76. But they sure didn't get the Latino

vote right. Obama was supposed to run away with it. The Culinary Union even endorsed him and he got clobbered. They went to Mrs. C.

It looks to me like the trend is swinging that way in S.C. too.

[Joe the Revelator]

47. I thought they had been off in each state

nt

[Occam Bandage]

53. Oh, you're right, they haven't gotten one within ten points yet.

[jefferson_dem]

42. Hillary is the front-runner. The ClitnonInc Machine is brutal.

She should win. I just hope Obama keeps it close.

[joshcryer]

48. I want Super Tuesday to give us a clear winner.

I don't give a crap who it is (ok maybe a little bit partial to Clinton given the utter garbage I've gotten from Obama supporters here).

[robbedvoter]

55. 60% chances SC will decide that before Super Tuesday

[aquart]

80. "ClitnonInc Machine" I hope that's a typo.

I really do.

Interesting that Hillary is now being condemned for good organizational skills. Because, of course, it's so common and easy to elect a woman to the presidency that little needs to be done or planned.

[jefferson_dem]

84. No typo.

It's not just Hillary. There's a well-oiled, corporate-like, ruthless "Machine" of entrenched interests promoting her candidacy. Kind of like the antithesis of bottom-up *democratic* action. It fits.

[goldcanyonaz]

43. Regardless of who one supports, tomorrow is going to be a very, very ugly day.

I'm not looking forward to it, or the spin that the media will pump us with afterwards will be deafening.

[robbedvoter]

49. I will enjoy this. The primary may get gentler after it.

[UALRBSofL]

60. TO BE HONEST ! ! ! ! !

During this election cycle I have quit following poles. I'm a Clinton supporter but I believe Barrack will take South Carolina. I can't remember but is SC an all or nothing state? I know florida is one of the few states that is. TIA.

[Dumak]

67. The Democrats haven't had winner-take-all primaries for many years.

The Republicans still use it for many states

[smalll]

61. Please, for Hillary's sake, Herman, don't push this poll - it is a total outlier -

according to the RealClearPolitics.com SC poll page, the last ARG poll had Obama over Clinton at only 9% -- while EVERY other poll has her beating her with double digits ever since then -- 13%, 15% even higher. RCP's average of polls has Obama up by 15% right now.

Obama has to win SC by at least 10% -- or it will be an expectations victory for Hillary. If she actually "lost" by only 3% in SC, it would be a total upset -- Comeback Girl territory, in fact.

[wisteria]

65. Well, I hope Obama blows her away. It is what her and her husband deserve. n/t

[bellasgrams]

72. No, it's BO that should be blown away. He has been so

nasty and he and his supporters have tried to blame her and Bill. I hope she wins and the media accepts that they can't push Obama down our throats. The people should choose not the media.

[onyxred]

66. ARG predicted a Hillary win in Iowa, an Obama win in NH

As you can see, ARG is arguably the most unreliable pollster out there.
It differs from all pollsters regarding the SC vote. All polls but this one have Obama winning by a margin approximately 13-20%.

Obama will win SC tomorrow and it will not even be close.

[Seabiscuit]

69. Once again, the polls are all over the place.

The SC voters could prove all the pollsters wrong.

[Lucinda]

71. Thanks for posting. I'm not fond of roller coasters as a rule

But this IS kinda fun. :)

[book_worm]

73. Wow, Herman, if Hillary loses by by more than five it's a total defeat for her

She's been making all these massive gains and the momentum must be with her. Let's hope for her spin she keeps it up.

[TeamJordan23]

74. ARG is 0 ofor 2. They had Clinton up by near double digits before Iowa, and was wrong in NH. nm

[Jester1183]

75. ARG is a Republican front

This is a firm that doesn't poll people with cell phones, "because young people don't vote".

http://ajacksonian.blogspot.com/2007/12/problem-with-american-research-group.html

[Hoof Hearted]

77. Very cool. Nice to see Edwards doing well on that poll too. But we all know

about polls.

Good luck to all the candidates! Tomorrow, we will know who won this one and it will be on to the bonus round.

:toast:

[Andromeda]

79. That's really interesting...

AOL's straw polls have Hillary winning SC, but AOL's polls also have Ron Paul getting a lot of support.

Go figure.

GO HILLARY!

[hayu_lol]

83. No matter the outcome in SC, it is going to be a very exciting day...

for the people of SC tomorrow/today.

We are so used to having Iowa decide for all of us. What a welcome change this primary is.

Now, if the machines only work....

[suston96]

85. Go to RealClearPolitics.....

http://www.state.sc.us/cgi-bin/scsec/96vr?countykey=ALL&D1=RACE

On the left, Presidential Polls, if you click on to Iowa and then the others below, you can know for sure the final listings for each state as compared with the actual results.

Whether delegates are seated or not is meaningless right now. The score is Hillary Clinton 3 states. Barack Obama 1 state. In point of fact, none of the delegates have actually been allocated so that argument is senseless. But it is really about the delegates. So we have to wait.

If you want to spend some time Google the 2004 primaries and compare them with what has happened so far. By this time back then, 2004, Kerry was on his way to running the table.

That ain't gonna happen this time.

[mrmx9]

88. Clearly ARG missed a zero off the end - 30% not 3%!

[JI7]

87. oh really

[jefferson_dem]

89. We'll see...

:scared:

[TeamJordan23]

90. Can we stop posting this garbage from this polling company now? nm

[BluegrassDem]

91. I agree, Herman really needs to give ARG polls up! LOL

[RoveRage]

92. Boy, were they on the money, or what?

[loveangelc]

93. whatever ARG says I'll now believe the exact opposite.lol

[FrenchieCat]

95. Polls are reliable like a taxi passing you by when you need one....

[grantcart]

97. quick what is arg saying about American Samoa

“We now turn our attention to the millions of Americans who will make their voices heard in Florida and the twenty-two states as well as American Samoa who will vote on February 5th.”

[VolcanoJen]

96. It makes me happy when people trump pollsters.

:bounce: