The big thing hurting Edwards is Hillary will get at least about 15%-20% of the black vote when all is said and done. Edwards is doing abysmally there, averaging about 2-4% in polls. Even if Hillary ties Edwards with whites which I don't think will happen, her large advantage over Edwards with blacks will ensure her second place.
Hillary has what is considered the best "traditional" organization in the state. Most of the South Carolina politicos support her. Obama's organization is grassroots. The polls are not reflecting Hillary's organization and GOTV program. They will get the vote out and make it at least respectable for her, my prediction is within the single digits. If she can hold his margin of victory under 10 points, she will have done as well as could be expected in this environment.
http://online.wsj.com/article/SB120105705756408791.html?mod=googlenews_wsj Mr. Obama, in contrast, is trying something many observers say has never been done here: He is circumventing entrenched local leadership and building a political machine from scratch. His staff consists largely of community organizers -- many from out of state or with no political experience -- who are assembling an army of volunteers. It is a strategy often used by labor organizations and in neighborhood and town politics.
Some evidence suggests the strategy may be working. After lagging far behind Mrs. Clinton in state polls for much of last year, Mr. Obama has jumped ahead. According to an automated poll conducted Monday by Public Policy Polling of Raleigh, N.C., Mr. Obama leads Mrs. Clinton 44% to 28%, with about 12% of respondents undecided. As late as October, Mrs. Clinton had a 20-percentage-point lead in many surveys. Nationally, Mrs. Clinton remains in the lead.
"If he pulls this off -- and I think he will -- Barack Obama's organization will be studied and replicated in this state for many years to come," says Inez Tenenbaum, a former South Carolina superintendent of education who has run four statewide races in the past decade. She is one of the few prominent state Democrats backing Mr. Obama.
The strategy has risks. The endorsement system of politics evolved precisely because it was locals, not outsiders, who knew where voters here lived and how to get them to the polls.
Clinton campaign officials greet the Obama strategy with skepticism. Kelly Adams, state director for the Clinton campaign and a South Carolina native, says her staff does its share of grass-roots organizing, staging fish fries, rallies and what she calls "salon outreach" in the state's barbershops. But she says these activities aren't enough to win an election. "We have a lot of endorsements from people who have been doing this longer than I have been alive," says Ms. Adams. The campaign will also involve hiring scores of locals, based on the recommendations of pastors and politicians, to drive out the vote. "I think it's a pretty fair fight -- we have a political machine unmatched by any other in the state."
The campaigns' differing strategies have opened a split between the old hands at Southern black politics who back Mrs. Clinton, and a new generation of Obama supporters who are often more attuned to hip-hop culture than civil-rights history.
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