If either Senator Clinton or Senator Obama get elected president...

[rateyes]

who will be the person(s) to take their place in the Senate? When Senator Edwards retired from the Senate to run, and became Kerry's running mate, we ended up with a Republican. If Edwards was still there, we would have one more Democratic seat, and could have told Joe Lieberman to go away.

Is there a real possibility that a Republican could take either one of these seats in the Senate?

[robbedvoter]

1. No. Both states have Dem governors.

[SteppingRazor]

6. Not only that, but both of those Democratic governors are not up for re-election this cycle...

so even if there was a chance of one being ousted by a GOPper (which I don't think there is anyway), it won't happen before they get the chance to name a replacement for their respective senators.

[readmoreoften]

2. Not in Clinton's case. I'd say probably not in Obama's either.

NY isn't voting for a Republican in this climate.

[SteppingRazor]

3. No chance at all of that happening.

Neither Illinois nor New York have gubernatorial elections in 2008, and both governorships are currently controlled by Democrats -- Rod Blagojevich and Eliot Spitzer, respectively.

[rateyes]

5. What about when elections roll around? nt

[SteppingRazor]

8. Even if there was a chance of either being replaced by a Republican, it wouldn't matter...

because they'd already have nominated their replacement for Obama or Clinton.

That said, I seriously doubt either Blagojevich or Spitzer will lose their re-election campaigns.

[Nailzberg]

16. I think Blago will.

He's fought so hard with other Dems, and they can smell the blood in the water. The guy is short on friends. He very well could lose if challenged in the primary.

[Occam Bandage]

20. But to another Democrat, not to a Republican.

[ronnykmarshall]

11. The senator(s) that are appointed would face election in 2010.

In case of Clinton's seat, they would run in 2010 for the final 2 years of the term. And then if elected in 2010 would run for the full 6 year term in 2012.

In Obama's cause, the appointed senator would face election in 2010 for a full six year term. Obama's seat is up in 2010.

[Occam Bandage]

4. The IL Republican party is moribund.

I'd like to see my Congressman, Jesse Jackson, Jr., take his place, but that's unlikely; he'd have to scrap for that seat every six years, while he's got an uncontested House seat as long as he wants it. It would be interesting for them to give it to Duckworth.

[terrya]

12. Blagojevich could appoint Lisa Madigan to that seat.

It would get her out of the way if she wanted to run against him in 2008.

Of course, he could be under indictment before then, so who knows?

[Occam Bandage]

21. Like you say, I think she has her eyes on Blago's seat.

[MADem]

7. Robert F. Kennedy Junior, son of another 'carpetbagging' New York Senator, is said to

be the likely successor to Clinton.

I really do not know enough about IL politics to say who might replace Obama.

Who's STRONG in the IL national caucus? Which IL reps are standouts? It might be one of them.

[Occam Bandage]

10. Well, in the national party,

Rahm Emanuel and Jesse Jackson, Jr have the most strength. Emanuel might go for it, but Jackson seems happy where he is. My money would still be on Tammy Duckworth.

[MADem]

15. The machine might want Tammy to go to the House first.

Rahm is probably a good bet, or Jesse. I think Rahm has the advantage due to his work with the DNC on grooming candidates. He's "owed" some national help if he wants the job, because he really was one of the architects, along with Steny Hoyer, of our retaking of the House.

[Occam Bandage]

18. I would think so too, but much as with Obama,

the IL state Democratic party doesn't seem to mind catapulting their prospects into the big leagues. I would say she'd be their first choice internally--but at the same time, if Rahm wants the job, he has enough sway to turn the machine in his favor. If he intends to challenge, they won't run Duckworth (even though she lost her house bid by only two points, another loss and she'll be used goods).

[MADem]

26. How does IL handle legislators and their districts?

Here in MA, all you have to do is rent a studio apartment and run from whatever district looks good (Kerry did that in Lowell--the locals didn't buy it).

They could plunk Tammy down into a shoo-in district, and launch her that way, if the local regs allowed.

She NEEDS to make her move soon, if she is going to do anything at all. Right now, "the servicemember who served in THAT war" is still "in fashion" as a motivator for both political parties--no one's gonna "out-Patriot" us, now, are they?

As with all wars, after they're over, there seems to gradually develop a sense amongst the population that they just want to shove all that war shit under the rug. We saw it after WW2 (buck up, move on, pretend it was no big deal), Korea (a lot of underserved vets from that conflict) and of course, Vietnam, where no one would even admit they were there.

There's always a cycle, and it is worse for the vets if the conflict was a failure or ambiguous in its results. Years later, of course, they revisit the whole mess, and honor the poor bastards who have been suffering in silence, but those interim years can be dicey. So she needs to get back out there ASAP and run if she's going to, IMO.

[SteppingRazor]

19. Again, I don't see why Rahm would give up being chair of the Democratic Caucus and the DCCC...

just so he could become a backbencher in the Senate. It doesn't fit the man's personality too well.

[SteppingRazor]

17. I seriously doubt Rahm would give up a powerful position in the House to become a junior senator.

Also, I don't think a party guy like Blagojevich is going to tap an outsider (and, sadly, a losing candidate) like Duckworth. Yes, he made her head of the Illinois Veterans Affairs Dept., but I think that was more a PR move than anything else. My money would probably be on Jackson or maybe Luis Gutierrez.

[Occam Bandage]

23. Duckworth lost her bid, but narrowly, and in Henry Hyde's district. Keep in mind

Obama lost a 2000 bid for the House as well.

[OneBlueSky]

13. which is pretty much why RFK Jr. is supporting Hillary Clinton . . . n/t

.

[SteppingRazor]

14. The biggest name among the Ill. reps is, of course, Rahm Emanuel...

but I doubt he'd leave his powerful position in the House to become a junior senator. If the governor wanted to nominate a black man to replace Obama, he could pick from Danny Davis, Bobby Rush or Jesse Jackson Jr.

[MADem]

22. He just might! The House is several hudred rabidly ardent legislators, and

the 'cooling saucer' of the Senate is a hundred guys (generically speaking) who are very collegial. Fewer elections to deal with, and the chance to move in more rarified air. And also, since about a quarter of the Senate that is up for reelection or will have a vacant seat is GOP, he probably won't be the MOST junior kid on the team, coming from the House. He'd be senior to, say, Senator Franken!

He could probably find himself a seat on a nice, high profile committee or two without any trouble. As I said elsewhere, the Party OWES him for the great gains of the last election cycle. Now's the time for him to jump, if he gets the shot.

[SteppingRazor]

25. Yeah, those are all good points.

Strike while the iron's hot, and all that. Right now, among the party bigwigs, Rahm's got a lot of capital.

[Auntie Bush]

24. Now that's the best thought of the day.

[MADem]

28. If HRC gets the nod, she'll be hauling his ass all over the state

and introducing him to all of her friends--especially the ones who hated her at first, and then grew to love her.

He could actually do a lot of good for the struggling, historically GOP pockets of the state--those areas are RIPE for environmentally sustainable energy development projects--wind farms and the like.

[Nailzberg]

9. Vacancies in the Senate are filled by the executive of that state.

Both IL and NY have democratic governors. Obama's seat is up in 2010. Clinton's in 2012.

[Gidney N Cloyd]

27. In Illinois, a lot of people used just this scenario to convince themselves to...

...vote to re-elect Gov. Blagojevich. The "we need a dem gov in case Obama or Durbin move up" combined with the hope that the dumb SOB gets indicted well before the next governor election so Lt Gov. Pat Quinn can take over and establish himself for 2010 was my motivation.
As for Jesse Jackson being appointed to Obama's seat, I think Jackson's looking more at running for Mayor of Chicago. I don't know about Rahm's chances but I wouldn't discount Blago appointing himself. He's certainly got the ego for it and the law always seems to be a few steps behind him.