Why Obama's expected win in SC may well be a loss.

[cali]

I'm dreading this happening, but I'm pretty sure that it will. The Clinton machine will continue doing what it does best: Pointing out what a "black" candidate Obama is. They'll respond over and over to any victory there as a "black" victory. They'll bring up the racial composition of the voters incessently. Unlike in NV, where the latino vote going for Clinton was a source of pride, they'll try and belittle his win by marginalizing Obama as a candidate who only appeals to African American voters- despiste his win in Iowa and his good showings in NH and NV. And the media will parrot this line as well.

I really hate thinking this is how it will play out.

[Colobo]

1. It may be, but he needs to win it anyway.

[cali]

2. I know Katz,

I'm just dreading the spin the Clinton machine will use.

[Hello_Kitty]

10. I'm not quite on board the O-man yet but I am spitting mad at the Clintons over this

The racebaiting they've engaged in is blatantly obvious to anyone with 2 eyes and ears. Aside from it being disgustingly immoral, it's patently stupid. They have alienated the black community and young people with their behavior, 2 groups who are crucial to the dems in the general election. Bush beat Kerry among white voters by 17%! The gap has narrowed to be sure but this is no time to be squandering core support groups. The Clintons are trying to teach a young upstart not to interfere with their power and don't care who they hurt in the process. If this garbage keeps up say hello to President McCain. :(

[Cha]

16. They're going to keep the machine

spinning shit no matter what Obama wins or does not win..and there's no reason for us to be anything less than positive. I believe Obama said it..he needs South Carolina..and who knows what's gonna happen down the line?

[Hello_Kitty]

3. This is exactly what they'll do. Edwards making a strong showing would counter that a bit.

I hope he does well enough to knock her to a distant 3rd so she can't as easily claim it was a race thing.

[Andy823]

4. Here we go again

Now I am not a Clinton supporter, but to spin crap like this, and bring up the "race" thing again is not going to help Obama. If he loses, it will be because people disagree with his views, or they want an "adult" instead of one of the kids on the playground. Stop using the "race" thing as a reason he won't win. It's just as bad as the gender thing!

[Skwmom]

11. Have you been listening? It's the Clinton campaign and supporters which

are putting out the meme "Hispanics won't vote for a black" etc.

[aquart]

5. You mean you think playing the race card was a mistake?

But you'll blame the Clintons for that and it will make you feel better?

[Occam Bandage]

8. No, it was a brilliantly successful strategy by the Clinton campaign.

[Skwmom]

17. Brilliant for the primary election, stupid for the general election when

it comes back to bite them. Anyone who thinks this isn't going to peel away a certain percentage of the black vote (if Clinton is the nominee) really must believe in fairy tales. And guess what, Clinton can't afford to lose any of that vote b/c she'll already be losing independents and moderates to McCain.

[Occam Bandage]

19. It may hurt her in the GE, but if it's what she needs to get to the GE, it's what she'll do.

Personal interest above party interest above national interest.

[cali]

13. No, the Clinton's very effectively interjected race and religion

into it. They started with emails in Iowa, moved on to the late lamented state chairman in NH, segued to Bob Kerrey and Andrew Cuomo and Bob Johnson. They're good at being slimy. Very, very good.

[Skip Intro]

6. The talk has been for weeks the percentage of SC Democrats who are black.

The media has pointed to that repeatedly over the last few weeks, and if Obama does win, if, I am sure the media will say it was in large part to the African American vote here.

How Clinton gets the blame for this is beyond me.

[Occam Bandage]

7. Absolutely it will. They've already indicated repeatedly that they intend

to point out Obama's "blackness" whenever possible. They hope to marginalize him by playing racial politics.

[pocoloco]

9. Losing is winning

WAR IS PEACE
FREEDOM IS SLAVERY
IGNORANCE IS STRENGTH

[Sulawesi]

20. Great Post!

[DrFunkenstein]

12. You're Wrong...It Will Be a Key Part of His Southern Strategy

Proving that, unlike Clinton, Obama is viable in the South by bringing out voters who would normally stay at home. We need someone that can pick up a state or two in the South.

[Cant trust em]

14. We all know that America is historically racist

but the way that certain minority groups are still favored over others is fascinating. Now that hispanics are the up and coming voting block everyone is rushing up to curry their favor. Seems like the African American vote isn't changing much in demographic terms so I guess that politicians think it's OK to continually marginalize them.

[TomClash]

15. You're absolutely right

I posted something similar a few days ago. That's how they will portray his victory. But if he's such a "black" candidate how did he get 38% of the vote in Iowa and 37% of the vote in New Hampshire - two states with minuscule African-American populations?

[Perky]

18. Anf then on SUper Tuesday. He will have similar "losses" in GA, AL & TN (more on edit)

If they call it a "black victoryt and try to isolate Obama from white support. It will backfire because the endorsements for Obama will come from all quarters....not because it is abjectlyracist but because it will damage all DEM candidates in the fall If Hillary gets the nod and AA Voters are pissed off.

Black Talk radiio will absolutely revolt against the Clinton's It will be the biggerst story between Saturday and Super Tuesday. It would drive up AA voting across the country.

[ellacott]

22. I've been listening to Black Talk Radio all day

And there is no love for Hillary today.

I find it interesting that for weeks they kept saying that Blacks make up 40-50% of the Dems. in South Carolina. This week they are saying that they make up 60% of the Dems.

I wonder if they elevating the numbers to elevate expectations.

[Perky]

24. I think those numbers will be up

I am expecting it to be a 70/30 split

I am also expecting Indies to go 60% for Obama.

I think the win is going to be thelargest margin to date/

[ellacott]

25. I hope so n/t

[Hello_Kitty]

31. The Clintons are stupid stupid STUPID for doing this!

They are acting like bullies and may have squandered their goodwill in the black community forever. They are throwing the general election under the bus just so they can teach Obama a lesson about messing with their power.

[BenDavid]

21. I disagree but only the part you say the clintons will be pointing

out what a "black" candidate obama is....That is rather obvious obama is black, but the clintons to do that would make them bigots and racist and neither one are. what really will happen as someone said last week, and I paraphrase, obama does not want his campaign to be viewed as a black people only campaign. Once this happens it will be the end for him.....What I think will happen the media which I say is anti hrc will be the ones showing over and over how much a percent obama received from the black community in south carolina....this will be run into the ground......

it will be the mediawhores that will do all of what you said and I will copy and paste here what you said and place main street media and mediawhores where you referenced the clintons:

I'm dreading this happening, but I'm pretty sure that it will. The main street media will continue doing what it does best: Pointing out what a "black" candidate Obama is. They'll respond over and over to any victory there as a "black" victory. They'll bring up the racial composition of the voters incessently. Unlike in NV, where the latino vote going for Clinton was a source of pride, they'll try and belittle his win by marginalizing Obama as a candidate who only appeals to African American voters- despiste his win in Iowa and his good showings in NH and NV. And the mediawhore (reporters) will parrot this line as well.

I really hate thinking this is how it will play out.

[CoffeeCat]

23. I agree with you...

The Clintons know they're not going to win SC, so they must spin this loss in any way that
favors them. I have no doubt that they will position this as a win due to race.

Never mind, that Hillary was ahead by 15 points in SC, several weeks ago. She's blown her
lead. They won't talk about that though.

I do think the Clinton camp will try to solidify Obama as the "black candidate" as a strategy
to pull Hispanic voters in and alienate white voters from Obama--as they go in to Super Tuesday.

I will go one step further and say that Hillary's leaving the state of SC is an attempt to lose
even more. If it's close, they can't make that race-based argument. If he wins handily it
further cements their planned "He won because he's black" distortions.

Look for Clinton surrogates and others to position the SC win as about race.

It's extremely disheartening to see this manipulative bunk happen, especially after seeing
Obama's campaign up-close-and-personal in Iowa. It was not about race in Iowa. It was
barely mentioned. Hillary had a big lead in Iowa, but when Obama introduced himself to our
state, more and more people joined his camp. Those supporters were gained because of his
ideas and his ability to inspire. It was almost a utopian campaign. The Iowa Dems increased
voter turnout by 100 percent, from the last caucus in 2004. Everyone was on fire and so excited,
and no one was focusing on race.

It's so sad...to see the deep manipulations. The Clintons are like a big shredding machine--cutting
up the hope, sincerity, inspiration and dignity of our political process--and anyone who gets in
the way of their perceived entitlements.

[Bread and Circus]

26. agree

[Perry Logan]

27. Since what y'all say about the Clinton campaign is bullshit, I'm sure your predictions are, too.

[BootinUp]

28. Disagree

with your charge that it was the Clintons who brought race into this. It is you and others who falsely charge that, that are the root of the problem. Keep it up.

[sniffa]

30. ..

[robbedvoter]

29. Whatever fails to meet the expectations - Clenis's fault. We get it. Preemptive too.

[rox63]

32. Cali - Why so downcast?

A victory in SC would give Obama a nice boost going into Super Tuesday. It would show him as a Dem who can win a southern state. His opponents will slime him no matter what. If he lost SC, they'd slime him even worse because he lost. Don't give up on our guy. This race is far from over.

[Kurt_and_Hunter]

33. This analysis is too simple

It is true that Obama is much more identifiable as "the black candidate" than he was in Iowa. And I will grant that it is in Hillary's interest that, nationally, Barack be seen as an ethnic niche candidate. It does not, however, follow that all such perceptions are the result of Clinton campaign efforts. The nature of news coverage and Obama campaign strategies that went awry are just as responsible.

The media was never going to allow Barack to run as race-neutral forever, and everyone has always known that. They were not waiting for Hillary's permission to commence the 24/7 "Campaign 2008: race in America" bullshit. Racial matters arouse passions, and that's what sells.

When Clinton won NH, the possibility of skating through the primaries disappeared, and Barack had to turn to practical state-by-state politics, with SC a must win. The fact that Senator Obama was running as above race in Iowa and NH (states with almost zero people of color), yet became more identifiably "the black candidate" when the battleground shifted from all-white northern states to a state with a 50-50 white/black dem electorate is pretty basic politics.

I don't see how, or why, you would focus on only one side of a symmetry. Clinton has lost almost all support among SC black voters. Obama is in the same position vis-a-vis white South Carolinians. If the only move we had seen was a collapse of white support for Obama that would be one thing, but the racial divide has developed symmetrically, and the racial divide will deliver a big win for Barack in a must win state.

Divisionism is a terrible long-term strategy for Barack, but it is essential in the short term because if he losses SC there is no next act. Rather than attributing everything to Clinton, one can ask who benefits and recognize that BOTH campaigns benefit in their own way, and both have been involved in the developing dynamic.

The "Hillary said MLK needed a white man to succeed" smear was started by jaded TV news types, then given the imprimatur of the NYT in a (very ugly, irresponsible, race-baiting) editorial. Either the Obama campaign or rogue elements of support blew up the story, and it played out very badly for Obama in terms of national politics. But it benefited Obama in SC (undeniable) and was not anything Hillary chose. She tried to tamp down the story within minutes of realizing anyone was trying to create a story. (There are no votes to be had from Democrats of any color by disrespecting MLK. MLK is no Sister Souljah.)

I think it somewhat simplistic to lay all of the emergence of racial identity politics at the feet of cynical Clinton campaign moves.(If the Clinton's really controlled the zeitgeist to such a fine degree we would be fools not to nominate Hillary.)

[Auntie Bush]

34. Then stop making up another one of your predictive little make believe plays.

Then you won't have to think about how it plays out. :rofl:
You sure are laughable and pathetic with your great imagination. All I can say is "here we go again". Cali and her imagination!

Another example of if you can't find something worthwhile to complain or worry about...make it up! I suggest you not quit your day job... as a playwright you're sure to fail. I suggest you get a shovel and do some digging into some real facts and real things to worry about. Talk about fairytales.