Even a Few Upset Victories Won't Help Edwards's Odds - WSJ's Al Hunt

[question everything]

(snip)

Sen. Edwards has a political scenario for the next 10 days: winning a couple major victories on Super Tuesday -- in Georgia and Ohio; running closer than expected behind Sen. Kerry in the other contests that day, including New York and California; and then eking out victories in the four Southern primaries on March 9 in Texas, Florida, Mississippi and Louisiana.

(snip)

Even if the Edwards optimal case is realized, his nomination prospects remain somewhere between slim and none. Mark Siegel, a former executive director of the Democratic Party who played a major role writing the Democratic presidential nomination rules, has calculated the likely tally if Mr. Edwards' political dreams are realized. After next Tuesday, he would still trail Sen. Kerry by more than 2-to-1, and a week later, when more than 70% of the delegates will have been selected, the Massachusetts Democrat would be within striking distance of the 2,162 delegates needed for the nomination.

That's because, Mr. Siegel explains, in almost every state delegates are awarded on a proportional representation basis, or according to what percentage of the vote a candidate gets; that kicks in once a candidate meets the threshold of 15% in any congressional district. So, for example, if Mr. Edwards were to suddenly gain momentum with upsets going into Illinois on March 16 and then won 60% of the vote there -- a landslide -- he still would only get three-fifths of that state's 156 pledged delegates. Since Sen. Kerry would have a huge lead by then, all he would have to do is get 35% or 40% of the vote in the remaining primaries to win.

(snip)

The third element is the so-called super delegates, or office holders and party officials who are automatic delegates. They are 802 out of the 4,322 total delegates, and they already are lining up behind front-runner Mr. Kerry's candidacy.

"The concept was that these professional politicians in a close or deadlocked race would give the party wiggle room based on electability," recalls Mr. Siegel. "But in fact what they do is rush to be with who looks like the winner."

[saltpoint]

1. A cousin told me today that Edwards has a strong gift for --

-- communicating with people. He's run a great campaign. Any number of people in Iowa want to have his children. I'd be happy if he were our nominee for P or VP, or became Att. Gen. in a new Democratic administration.

Also, there seemed to be a lot of North Carolinians who had written him off, only to find that Iowa Democrats loved him. Sometimes it takes outsiders to discover the virtues in those we think we know.

Edwards is a talent.

[Skwmom]

2. Iowans are getting only a surface look at Edwards

The people in his own state have looked beyond the hype. If the Democrats put a personal injury attorney on the ticket, they have really sunk to an all time low.

[saltpoint]

3. Aw, I don't know about that.

Edwards has surprised a lot of people.

The support for him to be on the ticket is running strong.