Candidate rankings: No longer a race for states -- now a fight for delegates

[DeepModem Mom]

WP political blog, "The Fix," by Chris Cillizza
The Friday Line: Uncertainty Reigns

....we head into Nevada's caucuses and South Carolina's Republican primary on Saturday acutely aware of how much we don't know. The key thing to remember ahead of both of these contests -- as well as next week's South Carolina Democratic primary -- is that the nomination fights have both turned into a battle for delegates. No single state's vote is going to end the race or give any candidate all that much momentum. The contest will likely extend until at least Feb. 5, when 24 states vote and a huge chunk of both parties' delegates are at stake.... The candidates are ranked by their current likelihood to win their respective party nods. The number-one ranked candidate is seen as the front-runner -- if there is such a thing in this election....

***

DEMOCRATS

3. John Edwards: While the focus tomorrow will be on Obama and Clinton, Edwards may have the most to gain or lose. Edwards continues to insist the Democratic race is a three-way contest and has switched from attacking Clinton alone to criticizing BOTH Obama and Clinton as flawed candidates who could cost Democrats the White House. That rhetoric is all well and good but if he can't crack the top two -- or at least come close -- the road ahead becomes much, much more difficult for Edwards. The MSNBC/McClatchy survey shows Edwards in a distant third place in South Carolina, affirming past polls that show the Palmetto State as a two-person contest. Edwards has pledged to stay in the race through the convention, but could he truly compete after losing South Carolina? (Previous ranking: 3)

1. (tie) Barack Obama: Winning New Hampshire might have locked up the primary nomination for Obama but losing there hasn't damaged the Illinois Senator the way some predicted it might. Over the past ten days, Obama has racked up a number of high-profile endorsements from the likes of Sens. John Kerry (Mass.) and Patrick Leahy (Vt.) as well as Arizona Gov. Janet Napolitano. Now, endorsements don't equal a victory, but they prove that the establishment of the party is split between Obama and Clinton. With the race certain now to extend to Feb. 5, it is Obama who starts with the early lead -- organizationally -- over Clinton in many of these states. And, with several southern states with large black populations -- Alabama, Georgia and Tennessee -- and Obama's home state of Illinois voting that day, he'll likely have a solid delegate foundation no matter his ups and down between now and then. (Previous ranking: Tie for 1)

1. (tie) Hillary Rodham Clinton: While the Clinton campaign (rightly) notes that the race is now a delegate fight rather than a series of single-state contests, a win in Nevada would be a nice insurance policy against Obama's expected triumph in South Carolina one week later. Even if she loses both states, Clinton, like Obama, enters Feb. 5 in relatively strong shape with New York, Arkansas, New Jersey and Connecticut all looking strong for her. Clinton also went on-air in California late Thursday, a sign that she is ready to fight hard for the crown jewel of delegates available on Feb. 5. (Obama beat Clinton to the California airwaves by five days.) Since her win in New Hampshire, Clinton has sharpened her campaign message nicely -- focusing heavily on her ability to bring about change and contrasting that with Obama's alleged lack of results in public office. Winning New Hampshire bought Clinton time to make just this sort of case against Obama. The question now is whether Democratic voters are buying what she is selling. (Previous ranking: Tie for 1)

http://blog.washingtonpost.com/thefix/2008/01/the_friday_line_uncertainty_re.html?hpid=topnews