Why are some people so eager for the primary to be over?

[Padraig18]

Please vote.

:)

[reprehensor]

1. They are trying to aid the GOP...

By narrowing the field to a single target for Repub attack ads.

[Padraig18]

2. They never think about that.

Multiple moving targets are harder to focus on.

[littlejoe]

22. Pretzle logic.

Kerry is having to fight not only democrats, but bush at the same time.

[emulatorloo]

3. they're all running out of $$, and I can't give any more until GE campaign

Some say the primary is "free publicity," but it isn't. It is costing these guys big $$$$s. I would rather see the money spent against Bush, but that's just me. . .other than that I am in no hurry

ON edit add qualifier

[Padraig18]

4. That's one point, of course.

Of course some of us would prefer a better candidate, even if it means spending more $$$ now to produce one.

:hi:

[Leilani]

17. If it was competitive, I would like it to continue

When Lieberman didn't win, everyone wanted him out. There was pressure on both Dean & Clark to get out.

Why is Edwards any different? Clark got 1 win, & placed ahead of Edwards in N.Hampshire, Arizona, N.Mexico, N.Dakota, but everyone wanted him out.

Now the odds against someone other than Kerry have grown much greater, because of the number of primaries that have been held, & the delegates that have been awarded.

It just seems pointless now, because of Kerry's huge lead.

[Padraig18]

25. It remains to be seen if he can retain that lead.

Everyone knows a horse will win the Kentucky derby, but no one *knows* which one, until the race ends.

:)

[KC21304]

27. Are you saying that Edwards was hinting that Clark should get out ?

That can't be. That would be like asking the spouse of a dying patient to go out on a date, or whatever . LOL

[Padraig18]

30. Edwards never said so.

That was an untrue statement.

[Padraig18]

5. Kick

[rock]

6. The human fraility known as seeking closure

It's a real weakness that most people have.

[Padraig18]

7. "Closure" for WHAT?

'Closure' usually follows a traumatic event of some sort. Are Kerry supporters traumatized by the fact that people would vote for someone other than Kerry?

:wtf:

[rock]

14. Closure for what ever's happening

In this case, the choosing of a candidate.

[Padraig18]

44. Seems sorta odd that 30% of the voters should tell the other 70%...

...when the 'proper' time for closure is, IMO.

[Protagoras]

8. None of the Above.

Again with the False Dichotomies?

How about we add a few things to the poll like: Because Bush is vulnerable and the sooner we can get our focus fully on him and stop tearing ourselves apart the better job we can do of chopping him down to size and removing him from office in November.

or

The sooner we can get organized for the presidential election the sooner we can remember that we also need to do something significant in the House and Senate or anyone we elect will be working with one arm tied behind their back come November.

or

Bush is defeating himself and the biggest threat we currently have to our party and the cause of liberalism are extremists in our own party who are more interested in spitting in the wind and soothing their own ego's than getting back into the whitehouse so we have SOME chance of change instead of no chance at all.

I'm sure there are a few other ideas out as well that were missed in the initial poll. Till I see these or some of those others, I'll just have to consider the 3 I listed to by my "write-in" vote :D

[Padraig18]

10. The haste strikes many as unseemly.

Kind of like approching the wife of a terminally-ill cancer victim in the hospital, and asking her if she wants to go on a date. What objection do you have to letting the VOTERS decide when it's over? Has 'Bush think' seeped into YOUR thinking, too? :shrug:

[KC21304]

15. No , I think it is more like the patient has already died,

and the family wants to keep him in the hospital until July, because it is too painful to bury him.

[Padraig18]

16. If the patient weren't alive...

you wouldn't be so eager to keep covering up the monitors...

[Protagoras]

19. Wow I'm mortally wounded.

Guess I was lying...I don't even have a right to think an organized party or some decent amount of unity and common cause is a good thing...it's all BUSH THINK and I secretly just want my fatally flawed candidate to sneak thru before the truth comes out and I'm lynched in the streets for the fraud I am.

Is that better?

Or...Maybe after a few decades of elections I have seen what works and what doesn't work so well on the national scale and I'm of the opinion that the voters have pretty much decided, and the screams and attacks from a number of people are just stalling tactics because they can't accept the fact that everyone else doesn't see the world exactly like they do. Do you know what attribution theory is? you might want to check it out.

Btw the cancer victim was a nice touch...interesting analogy. In fact, lets play with it a bit. When treating cancer (which I think is a pretty good analogy for the Bush administration) do you wait till the last possible minute to start treatment or do you start trying to nail it down and cure it? Do you tell the doctor to go back for a 8th and 10th and 28th diagnosis while you dither and bluster, or do you try and take some diffinitive action as soon as possible before things metastasize? I know...you'll say the doctor is out...we don't know...but guess what...you are in the minority on that view and in this system (excepting florida) it's based on votes...and those votes are telling us what we need to know.

*shrug* back at ya...I'm ready to move on and worry about Bush...how long am I supposed to wait for you? Why are You the one who gets to set the timeline? What benifit I'm receiving if I wait another 3 months while you and others continue to pick our own party apart. You vote for you're candidate for your pure reasons when it's your primary and guess what...I'll do the same for mine.

And no...you don't know who my candidate is :D

[Cuban_Liberal]

155. Some of us would also like to vote, before the 30% tells us it's over.

That is if the folks planning the coronation don't mind holding off a bit...

[Dookus]

157. What you call coronation

is just inevitable reality. Nobody is crowning Kerry. He's just winning. Again and again and again. That's victory, not coronation.

[Cuban_Liberal]

158. Then let him keep doing so, until he has 2161 delegates.

Though you yourself are not involved, the concerted effort here on the part of certain Kerry supporters at DU to characterize those of us who are not presently ready to jump aboard the Kerry bandwagon as 'Bush enablers', or worse, is at best disrespectful. What you see as 'inevitable reality' others see as conjecture, and NEITHER we nor you can empirically prove that we are correct, you because your offer of proof must neccessarily reference polling data, we because our offer would neccessarily include 'bounce' and optimism/hope.

Do you hear what we're trying to say at all? We are loyal Democrats, too.

Peace. :hi:

[KC21304]

11. I like your poll better, Protagoras.

I vote for all of the above in your poll.

[AntiCoup2K4]

9. It's a combination of.

All of the above - except 1 and 6

[MrSlayer]

12. Other: Let's concentrate our money and effort toward ousting Bush

Instead of wasting it against each other.

[Protagoras]

26. Oh good one MrSlayer!

That should definately be added above. Considering how many people are yelling (and rightfully) about the impact on money in elections, I can't believe the amount they are willing to spend trashing each other rather than Bush.

[Dookus]

13. Why are some people so reluctant to face reality?

a) Bitterness
b) Spite
c) Petulance
d) Sour grapes
e) Childishness
f) All of the above


Edwards needs to get over 60% of ALL the remaining primary votes to win the nomination. He's not even polling close to 60% in ANY state. It's simply a mathematical reality that, barring an unforeseen disaster, Kerry will secure the nomination. Get over it.

[Padraig18]

18. Get over THIS

Until Kerry has 2161, he isn't the nominee, and he won't get those on Tuesday.

[KC21304]

20. Then we will continue on until someone does. Like you said,

the VOTERS DECIDE.

[Padraig18]

21. Thank you.

It's so rare to see a Kerry supporter say that. I applaud you.:)

[Dookus]

23. so you keep saying

but that just ignores reality.

How do you answer the fact that Edwards needs 60% of ALL remaining primary votes to get the nomination, and that he's not even CLOSE to getting that in ANY state?

While you are technically correct, you are correct on a meaningless point of fact. Do you really believe there is ANY chance that Edwards is going to get 60+% of all the remaining votes? What do you put that chance at? 50%? 20%? 1%?

You can stomp your feet all you want, but it won't change the underlying fact that Kerry is going to be the nominee. Posting bullshit flamebait threads like this one won't change that fact, either.

[Padraig18]

28. Neither will bullshit flamebait replies.

So just don't click on them, if they upset you so much.

[littlejoe]

31. You know all about bullshit flamebait replies, don't you, Padraig?

[littlejoe]

33. and meaningless polls?

[Padraig18]

37. Apparently not meaningless.

Seems to be getting quite a few votes. Oh, wait, I forgot--- we're supposed to let you determine what's 'meaningful', right?

[littlejoe]

42. People will usually put their two cents worth in. But don't confuse

the fact that people participate with something that is meaningful.,

[Padraig18]

48. I never confuse that.

The rules forbid me from making the follow-up comment I'd like to make, but I'd be happy to IM it to you.

[Padraig18]

34. No.

I know nothing about them. Care to teach me?

[Dookus]

35. they don't upset me

they amuse me more than anything.

Sorry, you don't get to decide which threads I contribute to. I enjoy pointing out how petulant and childish some people can be.

Don't hurt your feet with all that stomping.

[Padraig18]

40. 'Petulant'?

This from a 'drop out now' fan? If THAT isn't petulant, nothing is.

Pot. Kettle. Black.

[Dookus]

45. I haven't said

Edwards should drop out. You must be thinking of somebody else.

And this thread is a sign of petulance. And childishness. Sour Grapes. etc. etc.

[Padraig18]

49. So say you.

Not everyone in the thread (OR the poll) agrees, pretty obviously.

[jansu]

145. If all the other Candidates have 2161 + at the convention, Kerry loses

if they all decide on nominating someone else. This is why the Kerry team and supporters want us all to quit! DON'T! Vote for your candidate or one of those who has not backed Kerry, if you don't want Kerry as the Nominee!

[Dookus]

152. yes

but there are only 477 delegates currently pledged to other delegates.

Kerry will secure the nomination easily.

[littlejoe]

29. Good question, Dookus.

[Padraig18]

32. Maybe because 70% of the delegates remain up for grabs.

Think that minor fact might have something to do with it?

[littlejoe]

36. What makes you think that the remaining 70 percent will

vote any differently than the first 30 percent?

[Padraig18]

39. What makes you hink they won't?

I certainly have no crystal ball, and have no problem with letting the voters decide when it's over. Do you have a problem with that?

[Dookus]

41. Nobody is suggesting

cancelling the upcoming primaries.

We are merely pointing out that Kerry is going to win the nomination, no matter how hard you stamp your feet.

[Padraig18]

53. No matter how many times you say 'stamping your feet'...

...won't mean I am stamping my feet, sweetie cakes.

[Dookus]

59. It's a metaphor

for the childishness displayed in your original post.

It wasn't a sincere question - it was a way to attack people, as evidenced by your selection of answers.

Maybe you'll feel better after your nap, sweetie-cakes.

[Padraig18]

64. Calling it 'childish' doesn't make it so.

You see, some people here are getting shit fed-up with the 'drop out now ande jump on the Kerrybot bandwagon' threads. Those are far more numerous, precious.

[Dookus]

73. again

I'm not urging Edwards to drop out.

I'm urging people here to a) stop posting silly, divisive threads like this one and b) face reality so we can move on to the important task of beating Bush.

[Padraig18]

76. 'face reality'

Is just another way of saying 'drop out'.

[Dookus]

80. No it's not

the assertion itself is silly.

Please tell me how Edwards is going to overcome at least a 30 point deficit in most remaining states to secure the nomination.

[Padraig18]

84. It's not silly.

He overcomes it by getting momentum, which is why Kerry supporters are so eager for everyone to drop out. They are TERRIFIED that the voters will NOT continue to vote as they have. Deny it, if you likie, but some of us KNOW better---just like you 'know' Edwards can't win.

[Dookus]

90. What momentum?

There's no indication that Edwards has such momentum.

[littlejoe]

46. History, young man. Or don't you pay any attention to it?

[Padraig18]

50. Snappy one-liners are better said in comedy clubs.

I happen to be a history major.

[Dookus]

52. oooh...

nearly as dangerous as a psych major.

[Padraig18]

54. he asked.

I answered.

[littlejoe]

61. If that was your answer, it was a heck of a disconnect.

[Padraig18]

67. No, it wasn't.

That's the problem with one-line posts: they convey little in the way of substance. The miscommunication was yours, dear, not mine.

[littlejoe]

77. You answered my question about paying attention to history with

something completely off the wall. If that's not a disconnect...

[Padraig18]

82. 'I'm a history major' is not off the wall.

Nice try on your part, though.

[littlejoe]

87. May I suggest changing majors?

[Padraig18]

89. May I sugest you cease petty, ad hominem attacks on me?

*flip*

[littlejoe]

106. You may suggest it, but it's really up to you.

[Padraig18]

109. I'd suggest the contrary.

By all means, hit 'Alert' on any post of mine you think violates the rules.

[Dookus]

38. Why do you keep ignoring the facts

that 60+ percent of the remaining primary voters will have to choose Edwards in order for him to get the nomination, AND that Edwards isn't anywhere CLOSE to 60% in ANY state?

How about responding to the RELEVANT facts, instead of just spouting your silly, irrelevant fact?

[Padraig18]

43. None of them have voted.

So I don't know that they won't. Have you a crystal ball that says otherwise?

[Dookus]

47. it doesn't take a crystal ball

it takes a little common sense, and the realizatin that Edwards isn't polling close to 60% in ANY upcoming state.

I can't guarantee that the sun will come up tomorrow, but it's the smart way to bet.

[Padraig18]

51. 'common sense' tells me that...

70% of the voters haven't voted.

[Dookus]

57. You're a broken record

Why not address the facts that I've outlined here multiple times:

That Edwards needs 60+% of the remaining primary votes, and he's nowhere NEAR getting that in ANY state?

Please tell us why any of us should believe Edwards will accomplish that?

You can't - all you can do is repeat the meaningless fact that a lot of votes have yet to be cast. Tell us why the situation will turn around so drastically in the next 4 days?

[Padraig18]

58. "...repeat the meaningless fact that a lot of votes have yet to be cast...

When did we become the Young Pioneers, instead of the Democratic Party? I ahppen to think allowing the other 70% to vote to be meaningful.

[Dookus]

60. I'll try again

Edwards needs to get over 60% of all the remaining primary votes. He isn't CLOSE to getting that in ANY state.

How do you respond to that? Why should we feel that the situation will turn around drastically before Tuesday?

[Padraig18]

62. Who SAYS he's not close?

A poll? That's where your whole mantra breaks down.

[Dookus]

69. not A poll

EVERY poll

Can you find examples this primary season where a poll was off by 40% 3 days before the election? Are ALL polls off by that much?

There is NO reason whatsoever to believe Edwards will get 60% of all the remaining votes. Not a single reason. Not a single piece of evidence even POINTS to that.

[Padraig18]

75. Gee, EVERY state is voting 3 days from now.

I'd better call our county clerk--- she foolishly thinks our primary is March 16th.

[Dookus]

92. silly diversion

I never said such a thing.

If Edwards DOESN'T get 60+% in Tuesday's states, he'll need an even higher percentage in the following states. Probably 85% or more.

There is no reason to believe he will accomplish that.

[Padraig18]

102. 2 facts that just don't seem to sink in with you 'face reality' folks

Fact 1: 70% of tyhe voters haven't voted.

Fact 2: Kerty doesn't have and won't have 2161 delegates AFTER 3/2, or even close to it.

Those are facts, too.

[Dookus]

105. I have never denied those facts

I just deny that they're particularly meaningful.

Unless you tell me how Edwards is going to gain 60% of ALL the remaining primary votes, your facts don't mean squat.

[Padraig18]

110. Your facts don't mean squat either, snookums.

You're talking history-- I'm talking the future.

[Dookus]

114. ya know...

the "snookums" and "cutiepie" shit is just more childish passive-aggression.

My facts mean a lot, even if you won't recognize that. Edwards needs to do the impossible to win. That's worth recognizing.

[littlejoe]

68. This one may be a lost cause, Dookus.

[Dookus]

78. oh, I have no delusions about the possibility of changing HIS mind

that is a lost cause. His guy lost, and he will kick and scream and try to drag the whole party down with him in his tantrum.

But other people read the thread, and I think they've seen very clearly that there is absolutely zero reason to believe Edwards will secure 60% of the remaining primary votes.

[Name removed]

65. Deleted message

Message removed by moderator. Click here to review the message board rules.

[Padraig18]

70. Try typing with dyslexia AND a cast.

Then come talk to me.

[Name removed]

81. Deleted message

Message removed by moderator. Click here to review the message board rules.

[Padraig18]

86. You listen and you listen GOOD

I've had it with you and your ad hominems on me.

Can you hear me now?

[littlejoe]

91. Hit a nerve?

If you can't take it Padraig, don't dish it out. I don't go around starting fights, but by god, I sure know how to finish them. If you want to call a truce, I'm willing to listen. But if you want to continue to attack me, well.....

[Name removed]

93. Deleted message

Message removed by moderator. Click here to review the message board rules.

[littlejoe]

100. You have a short memory young man. I too, have a fistful of

flaming threads directed to me by you. Go ahead. Make my day.

[Padraig18]

103. Then alert on them.

How many warnings did you get Thursday? 2? 3? More?

[littlejoe]

111. I get alerts. Your point is?

[Padraig18]

113. My point is this:

Put up, or leave me alone, sweetums.

[littlejoe]

116. Now, do you want to know what MY point is?

Anyone with an ax to grind can hijack any thread. You, and other people have started this sort of crap by hijacking threads of Kerry supporters.

I didn't start this. YOU did!

If you are interested in civil discourse, as you claim, I suggest you put an end to this, or no one will be happy.

[Padraig18]

123. Prove it.

Otherwise, bye.

[littlejoe]

133. Easy enough. Prepare to get some moderator messages!

[Padraig18]

134. I'm shivering in my boots.

:scared: What the fuck ever...

[Cuban_Liberal]

143. I feel left out.

You're not going to alert on me?

[Dookus]

147. Fuji makes the tag

and Tanaka enters the ring

[littlejoe]

153. I find it interesting that the same people who start fllame wars on

other people's threads go running to the moderator when they can't take the same heat.

[Cuban_Liberal]

154. I don't know anyone who does that, if Mod warnings are an indication.

Mod warnings and deleted posts go hand-in-hand, and it seems to me that the number of those are a better indication of who is following the rules. How many have you had since Thursday? 5? 6?

[Dookus]

156. And how many has Padraig had?

I know for sure a few of his posts here got pulled.

But why would you bring up the subject at all? Drama royalty isn't terribly welcome outside certain circles. It's definitely annoying on a political board. The real issue here is why you or Padraig think it's possible for Edwards to get the nomination. I've expressed my position repeatedly, using math and real numbers. Tell me why I'm wrong.

[Cuban_Liberal]

160. I did, in post #158.

He has one, in answer to your question.

[Padraig18]

164. One, and I got it last night. n/t

[Dookus]

94. LOL

very very funny.

[Padraig18]

96. Think so?

Check ATA.

[Dookus]

97. why not hit alert?

hasn't Skinner said at least 500 times that running to ATA is NOT the way address such problems?

I know it's more dramatic to do it your way, but not everybody thinks drama is the be-all and end-all of public discourse.

[Padraig18]

98. If I said I did that, *I'D* get a warning.

How would you like being accused of what he's accusing me of, to wit:

littlejoe (1000+ posts) Sat Feb-28-04 06:14 PM
Response to Reply #70

81. Drugs don't help much, either, do they?




Think that's funny, Dookus? I think it's VILE.

[Dookus]

101. I didn't say

you had to announce you'd hit alert. I suggested you hit it if you think a post violates the rules. And again, Skinner has said hundreds of times that going to ATA isn't the way to address these situations.

The worst that will happen is the post that offends you will get deleted. You don't have the authority to demand anybody be tombstoned, and making such a threat is just downright funny.

[Padraig18]

104. You don't need 'authority' to argue that someone should be tombstoned.

And if you'd read the ATA post, you'd know that wasn't what it said.

[Name removed]

108. Deleted message

Message removed by moderator. Click here to review the message board rules.

[Padraig18]

112. I don't.

And neither will he, by the time I'm done.

[Dookus]

118. whee

this is better than a Bette Davis movie.

[XanaDUer]

120. "Fasten your seatbelts, Dookus, it's going to be a bumpy night."

Eom.

[XanaDUer]

117. Skinner and the other mods tell a certain segment of DU, who are in ATA

constantly, to hit alert, hit alert, hit alert when they see something they do not like.

But I love when they go to ATA to say, "Please PM me asap!", like they are some special segment of DU.

[oxymoron]

119. But didn't you read the post

in ATA? It's a matter of "HUGE importance."

Obviously the mods should drop everything and jump right on it.

:eyes:

[Padraig18]

125. When was the last time someone posted crap like this about YOU?

littlejoe (1000+ posts) Sat Feb-28-04 06:14 PM
Response to Reply #70

81. Drugs don't help much, either, do they?

[oxymoron]

128. I've had my share.

And the alert button always worked just fine.

[Padraig18]

131. Seems to be working here, finally. n/t

[littlejoe]

149. What crap. Didn't you admit it?

[Dookus]

127. reminds me of the Fedex commercials

we're DOOOOOMED!! DOOOOOMED!

[Padraig18]

129. You never have said what you thought about this, Dookus:

littlejoe (1000+ posts) Sat Feb-28-04 06:14 PM
Response to Reply #70

81. Drugs don't help much, either, do they?




your thoughts?

[Dookus]

130. my thoughts are that

people who post flamebait threads ought to be prepared to be flamed.

[Padraig18]

132. Duly noted.

If that's how it's to be, then that's how it's to be.

[Dookus]

136. LOL

look - the post was deleted. What more do you want?

You are not innocent by any means. I've seen plenty of flaming coming from you - not just in this thread, but many others. When a post violates the rules, just hit alert. Running to ATA and/or threatening to have other people tombstoned is overly dramatic.

Much worse has been said about me, here on DU, and not once did I behave the way you did. Just hit alert and move on. Why do you require that I join you in condemning everybody else?

It's not reasonable to start flamebait threads and then expect everybody else to play nice.

[littlejoe]

138. My entire point EXACTLY!

[littlejoe]

140. That was the whole point of my exercise. But I guess it has been

lost on a certain individual!

[Cuban_Liberal]

144. How many 'dings' did your exercise cost you?

Seems it might be YOU who missed the point, don't ya think?

[littlejoe]

150. I've taken my spanking, like I should. But you started it, with your

sabotaging of other people's threads. Maybe you think it's cute. I don't know. I can't get into the minds of 19 year olds anymore.

[Padraig18]

161. 'You started it'

Did I, or did I simply respond in an appropriate manner, given the substance and tone of the post you made? :think:

[littlejoe]

137. Which reminds me of another commercial....Brilliant!

[littlejoe]

63. Another disconnect.

[Padraig18]

72. Nope.

Your opinion.

[greatauntoftriplets]

99. How about the fact that we in Illinois do not vote until March 16?

:shrug:

Apparently, our voice does not matter.

[Padraig18]

107. Gee, you have that silly notion too, huh?

At least there are two of us.

:hi:

[greatauntoftriplets]

122. Yes, there are!!!

Happy to see you are feeling better.

:hi: back at you.

[Padraig18]

126. Thank you.

I'm on the mend. :)

[RetroLounge]

162. Oh, there's more than two...

:hi:

RL

[Padraig18]

163. There are LOTS more than two.

:hi:

[jsw_81]

24. Other

Because we need to unite and defeat Bush/Cheney.

[MurikanDemocrat]

55. None of the above

So the concentration can be on beating Bush instead of on trashing the candidate that is the only hope of taking Bush out of the White house in November.

[Padraig18]

56. Some of us don't agree.

Some of us, in fact, think that Senator Nuance is going to hand us a second Bush term...

[MurikanDemocrat]

66. And that is still not a good reason to trash him

just for the sake of trashing him.

[Padraig18]

74. we're not.

Some of his supporters are a different matter--- which is what THIS poll's point is.

[Name removed]

83. Deleted message

Message removed by moderator. Click here to review the message board rules.

[MurikanDemocrat]

88. That didn't make any sense

:shrug:

[Padraig18]

95. It makes perfect sense.

It's very plainly worded.

[littlejoe]

71. We know some of you do.

[citizen snips]

79. Objects in your mirror are closer than they appear.

[littlejoe]

85. But a speck is still a speck.

[zulchzulu]

115. You forgot "None of the above"

Your leading intentions in the phrasing are obvious.

Add "None of the above" and I'd vote. Either that or add "Because it was too embarrassing to see their candidate spend $41 million and not get one state".

[janx]

121. Hey, if that's supposed to be aimed at us Deaniacs--

we have no dog in this fight anymore, right? We can kick back and sip iced tea for months, watching this whole thing play out.

[zulchzulu]

124. It was aimed at the starter of the thread

The leading intention of the poll was obvious. I'll just use one of my favorite features on this site and never have to see this kind of poll again.

[janx]

135. That's probably wise, ZZ.

;-)

[Cuban_Liberal]

139. "They KNOW their candidate is vulnerable."

That's why they want to shut it down; they're afraid that people might notice that Emperor John has no clothes...

[littlejoe]

142. Who's candidate isn't vulnerable?

[revcarol]

141. Barring sudden death or finding one of the candidates in a church

making love with five nuns at once, NONE of the candidates is going to win the nomination ON THE FIRST BALLOT.

It's going to be a brokered convention.

So much fun watching the tag-team effect on Bush. The electorate is more interested in the primaries than they have been in YEARS. A win-win situation for Democrats that NO ONE drop out!!

[Dookus]

146. What possible

evidence is there for that?

Kerry will have the overwhelming majority of the delegates. What scenario do you envision that results in a brokered convention?

[revcarol]

148. 2161 is the magic number for the first ballot.

Dean and Clark delegates are pledged to that candidate and CANNOT vote for anyone else on the first ballot.Kerry would have to win almost EVERY STATE by 80% or more to get it on the first ballot.

[Dookus]

151. right now

there are 257 delegates pledged to Dean and Clark.

there are 4,322 total delegates.

Kerry needs 1,407 more delegates to secure the nomination.

There are over 3,000 delegates so far undecided.

So Kerry needs less than 50% of the remaining delegates to secure the nomination.

There hasn't been a brokered convention in ages, and Kerry will likely secure more delegates than any other candidate in a widely-contested primary.

It will not be a brokered convention. Your math is way off.

[jansu]

159. Or he tosses the VP to Edwards and takes his delegates.

Does that give him enough on the second ballot? Along with all the others who have dropped out and now endorse him?