Atlanta Journal-Constitution/WSB/Zogby Poll 2/28

[Nicholas_J]

Atlanta Journal-Constitution/WSB/Zogby
Georgia Democratic primary poll

02.28.04

Kerry 41

Edwards 26

Sharpton 5

Kucinich 0.1

Undecided 24

May not add up to 100%,
due to rounding


http://www.zogby.com/index.cfm

[molly]

1. Looking good!

[tryanhas]

2. Yes...

...it's looking very good for Bush.

[lancdem]

4. Not with his current approval ratings

[tryanhas]

5. All of that is irrelevant

If Kerry becomes the nominee, after the GOP finishes with Kerry, he will be 20% behind Bush in 2 months....

[NNN0LHI]

10. Keep you chin up. Little Chimpy will be going on extended vacation...

...to cut some brush at his Waco pig farm before you know it.

Don

[tryanhas]

13. Actually, I'm not a Bush supporter.

I'm an Edwards supporter, who just happens to hate Bush and Kerry equally, because they are equals.

Edwards isn't intertwined in the crap that they are, so I'll support him, thank you very much.

[NNN0LHI]

24. Why do you feel it necessary to convince me you are not a Bush supporter?

I never suggested that you were. I was just trying to keep the moral up around here. Did I say something that offended you? Does the idea of sending Chimpy back to his pig farm in Waco for good not make you happy?

And by the way, are you attempting to convince me that there is no difference between Kerry and Bush? Because if you are don't waste your breath. Go find some idiot somewhere who will buy your snake oil. Because I ain't buying.

Don

[tryanhas]

26. When you say...

"Keep you chin up. Little Chimpy will be going on extended vacation...


...to cut some brush at his Waco pig farm before you know it.

Don"

As if I could care less about what Bush does, then you will get an answer.

I'm not trying to convince you of anything about Bush, because I could actually care less about you or him.

[NNN0LHI]

30. You could care less about what Chimpy does in November? Thats odd

You say your not a Bush supporter but you don't care if Bush wins in November? I have a surprise for you. This site is dedicated to removing the Chimp from squatting in the White House any longer than he can stink the place up. In case you were not aware of that you may want to consider an alternate site that is more closer to your views about the Chimp boy. Ain't telling you what to do. Just give it some thought.

Don

[tryanhas]

31. When did I say I could care less about whether Bush wins or not?

I said, KERRY AND BUSH COULD CARE LESS ABOUT WHETHER THE OTHER ONE BEATS THEM OR NOT, because as long as it gets a boneman in the White House, they are satisfied.

Idiotic Republicans and Idiotic Democrats think they are participating in a race, but Kerry and Bush are not competing against each other, they just want to make sure that a bonesman is in the White House.

[mountainvue]

35. Then don't vote for anybody.

:crazy: :crazy: :crazy:

[mountainvue]

34. Then vote Nader.

:crazy: :crazy: :crazy:

[GalleryGod]

36. Put this Child on the I-List,Everyone! It's obvious who he's working with.

Buh-BYE:nuke:

[aquart]

7. Anything good for Bush is bad for America.

He's our murderer.

[tryanhas]

17. And John Kerry getting the nomination is good for Bush...

...one, he is easier for Bush to beat in a general election, and two, BOTH OF THEM ARE MEMBERS OF SKULL AND BONES, so neither one really cares whether the other one wins or not.

How can you all, NOT, have figured that out by now...

[bigtree]

25. Edwards doesn't think Kerry is Bush. They're friends. Likely running-mates

How can you, NOT, have figured that out by now...

[tryanhas]

27. How could you, NOT, have figured out by now...

...that I wasn't talking about WHAT EDWARDS THINKS in the post that you just responded to???

How could you not have figured out that JOHN EDWARDS DOESN'T TELL ME WHAT TO THINK?

Oh, I forgot, you don't have a clue...

[Cuban_Liberal]

3. What was the last poll?

What's the trend here?

[DrFunkenstein]

6. Sucky For Edwards?

Unfortunately for Edwards, even if he were to pull from behind, he wouldn't get winner-take-all delegates. This is looking more and more like a done deal.

[tryanhas]

8. When will you all learn???

IN THIS SPED UP PRIMARY SEASON, MOMENTUM IS WHAT MATTERS THE MOST!

If Edwards wins 3 of the Primaries on Tuesday, he will get a lot of momentum from it, and Kerry will stall, given Edwards the chance to possibly win most of the southern primaries on March the 9th, and then all of a sudden Edwards could be winning over 50% of the remaining primaries, instead of Kerry.

All he has to do is steal Kerry's thunder, and things could quickly turn on a dime...

[DrFunkenstein]

12. Edwards Would Have To Win Extremely Lopsided Victories To Compete

And that's before we even get into superdelegates.

[Nicholas_J]

15. Edwards would have to

Take every primary since Wisconsin with a minimum of 58 percent of the delegates, plus get all of the superdelegates that are left in order to reach the 2162 delegates necessary to win the nomination. A full half of the delegates necessary to win the nomination are being selected on Tuesday. Even a win in 3 states on tuesday will not do it for Edwards, as after Tuesday, there is nowhere for that momentum to take him, except into second place. Kerry will still be receiving delegates in those states, so no matter what, Kerry stays ahead of Edwards. There is almost no mathematical possibility to Edwards to win, as all Kerry needs to do is maintain an average of 35 percent in all of the remaining primaries to win. After tuesday, there are only 25 percent of pledged delegates left.

[tryanhas]

19. NKKKKK, all Edwards has to do is get the momentum...

...momentum turns into BIG WINS, just ask Kerry.

Kerry is riding on a wave of mythical electability.

take that from him and he will fall flat on his face.

Democrats don't really like Kerry, they just like Bush less!

There was a poll that came out last night that said that 2/3rds of the democrats in Super Tuesday states said that they don't know enough about the candidates to make an "INFORMED DECISION" about who to support, but yet, Kerry is dominated those polls?

Don't you see the disconnect there???

They did say that they know more about Kerry than Edwards (some don't even know who Edwards is), but the main thing they know about Kerry is that he has won the other primaries, and he is supposedly electable.

KERRY DOES NOT HAVE SOLID SUPPORT, and that's what I'm trying to get you all to understand!

Because his support is not solid, it doesn't take much to bring him down, just a change in the dynamic of the race, and Edwards could begin winning primaries by large margins...

[molly]

22. Edwards likes Kerry - why are you so vehement?

you are an Edward's supporter - right?

[tryanhas]

29. Because John Edwards...

...doesn't tell me what to think.

I support Edwards, not some flip flopping, Walmart investing, Skull and Bones brother of Bush, fake like John Kerry.

I hate his guts.

[Nicholas_J]

33. Edwards

Has to win every single state from the time of Wisconsin by 58 percent, PLUS have every remaining superdelegate endorse him for him to get enough delegates to win the nomination. If he does not do that on tuesday, there wll not be enough reamining delegates for him to add enough delegates to his delegate count to either be the nominee or even pass Kerry in delegate counts:

A recent poll in whihcEdwards was closing the gap has shown Edwards beginning to fall back:

Kerry 48% Edwards 32%

Edwards Slips Two Points

National Democrats

Kerry 48%
Edwards 32%
Sharpton 6%
Kucinich 2%
Not Sure 12%
RasmussenReports.com

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

February 28, 2004--As Super Tuesday approaches, Massachusetts Senator John Kerry leads North Carolina Senator John Edwards by 16 percentage points among Democrats nationally. The latest Rasmussen Reports tracking poll shows Kerry with 48% support compared to 32% for Edwards.
Today's results show Kerry's number holding firm while Edwards slipped two points.

Earlier in the week, Kerry held a 25-point lead over Edwards, 54% to 29%. While Edwards has gained a net 9 points since then, it is not clear whether the North Carolinian is still gaining ground. Kerry still has a substantial lead that will be very difficult to overcome.

Looking at polls from the states scheduled to vote on Tuesday, the hill looks even steeper for Edwards to climb. Statewide polls show Kerry with big leads in six states including the two biggest prizes, California and New York. The other states with big Kerry leads are Connecticut, Rhode Island, Maryland, and Ohio. While polling data is not available, it seems safe to assume that Kerry will also win big in his home state of Massachusetts and neighboring Vermont

http://www.rasmussenreports.com/Democrats_Ballot_Preference_2004.htm

Even in Georgia, one of Edwards strongest states, Kerry is advancing his lead on Edwards:

Likely Democratic
primary voters Feb 24 Feb 28

John Edwards 37% 38%
John Kerry 45% 48%
Dennis Kucinich 1% 1%
Al Sharpton 4% 4%
Other 2% 2%
Undecided 11% 7%


http://www.americanresearchgroup.com/ga/

In the next strongest state, Maryland, Edwards polling numbers are dropping. Kerry increasing:

Likely Democratic
primary voters Feb 25 Feb 28

John Edwards 35% 34%
John Kerry 42% 46%
Dennis Kucinich 1% 1%
Al Sharpton 2% 3%
Other 5% 5%
Undecided 15% 11%


http://www.americanresearchgroup.com/md/


Even Edwards own campaign beleives it chances of comng up from behind Kerry have become almost impossible.

If Edewards does not beat Kerry in every single state on tueday, by couble digits, there are not enough reamining delegates for Edwards to pass Kerry's delegate count at that point.

Three polls in the last few days showing Edwards losing momentum in the states he most needs to keep it.

[Nicholas_J]

9. Also

The Rassmussen polls which showed Edwards pulling up 11 point in 4 days, have just reflected a drop again .

Kerry 48% Edwards 32%

Edwards Slips Two Points

National Democrats

Kerry 48%
Edwards 32%
Sharpton 6%
Kucinich 2%
Not Sure 12%

RasmussenReports.com


February 28, 2004--As Super Tuesday approaches, Massachusetts Senator John Kerry leads North Carolina Senator John Edwards by 16 percentage points among Democrats nationally. The latest Rasmussen Reports tracking poll shows Kerry with 48% support compared to 32% for Edwards.
Today's results show Kerry's number holding firm while Edwards slipped two points.

Earlier in the week, Kerry held a 25-point lead over Edwards, 54% to 29%. While Edwards has gained a net 9 points since then, it is not clear whether the North Carolinian is still gaining ground. Kerry still has a substantial lead that will be very difficult to overcome.

Looking at polls from the states scheduled to vote on Tuesday, the hill looks even steeper for Edwards to climb. Statewide polls show Kerry with big leads in five states including the two biggest prizes, California and New York. The other states with big Kerry leads are Connecticut, Rhode Island, and Ohio. While polling data is not available, it seems safe to assume that Kerry will also win big in his home state of Massachusetts and neighboring Vermont.

http://www.rasmussenreports.com/Democrats_Ballot_Preference_2004.htm

[tryanhas]

21. And Kerry stayed the same...

...because there is not excitement around him at all.

After the debate tomorrow, Kerry will drop four points and Edwards will go up 7...

[King of New Orleans]

11. the 2-26 Zogby

had it at 39-26

[Cuban_Liberal]

18. Thanks!

A simple, direct answer to a simple, direct question. :hi:

[Cuban_Liberal]

14. What is the GA trend, once again?

:)

[JohnLocke]

20. It's absurd to say that Edwards has no chance in Georgia.

It's a southern state, about 1/4 of voters are undecided, and he's a great "closer."

[mohc]

16. Zogby waits so late to factor in leaners

That its hard to judge where things actually stand. Generally only his Monday and Tuesday releases will factor in leaners. By contrst, here are ARG's numbers

Kerry 45
Edwards 37
Sharpton 4
Kucinich 1
Other 2
Undecided 11

Far smaller undecided and a smaller lead for Kerry. Numbers from MD are similar. Just keep in mind, at this point in WI Edwards was down by over 30 points.

[King of New Orleans]

23. Two other polls in MD (actually after ARG)

Mason Dixon and Survey USA have Kerry with a 40pt and 25pt lead. Odds are Edwards is about 20 pts behind in MD too.


While Edwards certainly prove the polls wrong in Wisconsin, there just isn't the same variety of factors (plus the addition of 9 other states that he's trying to catch-up in) that will enable him to close much (though I do think in most states he'll pick up about 2/3rds of the undecided).

Work hard, hope for the best.

[DancingBear]

28. Clark stumped very heavily for Kerry in Georgia

Anyone here think this is having an effect (positive, of course) for JK?

(very curious to hear from GA residents on this)

[jsw_81]

32. Excellent