Poll shows Edwards dropping out rescuing Obama is a false hope

[jackson_dem]

With all the candidates: Hillary 49, Obama 36, Edwards 12, Kucinich 1, Gravel 0, no opinion 2

With only Hillary and Obama: Hillary 53, Obama 44, Neither 3, No opinion 1

http://i.a.cnn.net/cnn/2008/images/01/11/rel1a.pdf

[bigdarryl]

1. resucing Obama from what I don't take any stock in any poll after NH

[jackson_dem]

4. It is a "hopeful" fantasy that Edwards' support will flock to Obama if Edwards drops out

There was never any evidence for this belief of last resort. It was a way for some Obamites to blame Edwards for Obama underperforming compared to the high expectations they have set for him. You know the whole he is the new JFK, he is so inspirational, such a uniter thing. Obama is a great politician in many ways but he is not a god. It was also a way to keep hope alive that even if Obama lost to Clinton early that someday Edwards would quit and then his 18% would move over to Obama and there would be a happy ending.

[Tesha]

27. Edwards already represented a compromise from my positions; there's no way...

Edwards already represented a compromise from my positions;
there's no way that, if Edwards drops out, I will actively
support *EITHER* Hillary or Obama. I probably could vote
for Obama in the General Election (although he's pissing
that opportunity away every time he speaks) but Hillary
is right out.

Tesha

[Didereaux]

2. seems about right 2:1 split 1 for Clinton and 2 for Obama that is reflective of their supporters

[jackson_dem]

6. 3 go to "neither". One out of four Edwards supporters will simply sit it out

Edwards has 12 but while Clinton and Obama go up by 12 there is also a new category of neither. The real split is probably more like 3:2 for Obama.

[DaLittle Kitty]

31. Much Truth In That Prediction.......... Think People!

:think: But what would be the ratio of Hillary and Obama Supporters voting for Edwards when he IS The Nominee... More like 90%!

[cali]

3. Another divisive post from you

and surprise surprise it's all about bad news for Obama. Why don't you worry about your candidate. Speaking only for myself, I don't think Edwards should drop out. He owes it to his supporters to keep fighting. And I've never thought his dropping out helps Obama. In fact, In SC, it's the opposite.

[jackson_dem]

7. Obamites have been pushing this meme for an entire week

And now there is evidence proving it wrong. It deserves to be put out there so the scare tactics used to poach Edwardians who hate Hillary for Obama end. I didn't hear you calling that divisive...

[cali]

8. Then you didn't look

I posted an OP about how Edwards shouldn't drop out.

Try again. Oops, I note you're too busy slamming Obama in yet another thread.

[jackson_dem]

11. You don't speak for all Obamites

Many of them have been pushing this and you know it. Where were your comments about divisiveness then? This post was the last straw. There wasn't anything unusual or mean about it but once you hear this meme a certain number of times you resolve to debunk it. From a thread "Why Edwards Must be the Nominee":

TheWebHead (1000+ posts) Click to send private message to this author Click to view this author's profile Click to add this author to your buddy list Click to add this author to your Ignore list Mon Jan-14-08 04:40 AM
Response to Original message
17. the thread title should be

why edwards must continue to be supported to ensure Hillary is our nominee... because that's the net effect of your argument.

[cali]

10. keep addressing Obama supporters derisively

and using that old broad brush, EdWARdian.

[jackson_dem]

12. Obamite is offensive?

I call Edwards supporters Edwardians. I don't find anything offensive about that.

[Double T]

5. Hillary/Edwards ticket would be a winner.

[cali]

9. Any ticket with Hillary at the top faces unique problems

You con't have negatives close to 50 and not face an uphill battle. If she's the nom and we watch her negs climb even higher, we're in for a world of hurt.

[jackson_dem]

13. That is divisive. All the candidates will have high negatives by the election

[cali]

17. not necessarily

The truth is that Hillary has negatives over 20 points higher than Obama and much higher than Edwards. That's just a fact, and if it's divisive that's hardly my fault.

[DaLittle Kitty]

30. My Points Exactly... Wake Up Fer Edwards Democrats! If You'd Like To WIN?

[Mythsaje]

14. If certain Hillary supporters don't learn to think before they speak

that lead isn't going to last long.

[jackson_dem]

15. That may be the case

The OP's point is just that it is a total myth that if Edwards drops out that his 12-18% will move over to Obama overnight and thereby hand Obama the nomination. There was never any evidence to back that up and now there is evidence that debunks it.

[michaz]

16. No way Edwards should drop out! Who would believe a poll of 1,033 people!

Polls have been proven wrong this go round! The next poll should ask the question, "Do you believe that the media is selecting the candidates." Let's see how accurate the poll would be then! If a candidate needs to be "rescued" then there is a problem with that candidate already.

[robcon]

21. Edwards should drop out because he blieves the effort is hopeless.

If he doesn't believe he's in a hopless situation, he should drop out because he's too uninformed to stay in the race.

[Kolesar]

22. after a fraction of a percent of Democrats have voted...no thanks

I am looking forward to voting for John Edwards in Ohio

[RC]

18. All the people here discussing the merits of the candidates as if

the outcome of both the primary and the General election was not already predetermined.
Get a clue people. It is not business as usual.

[robcon]

19. It narrows Clinton's lead - that's the meme

You've proven the point.

[jackson_dem]

20. There is no significant difference between losing by 13 or 9

Is the new JFK, the great inspirer, who is so kewl and charismatic really that desperate for four points that he needs to be handed them?

[robcon]

23. You seem to be new to politics.

The idea is to win. 4 points is precious and rare.

You actions are like someone who has a $500 shortfall in his/her budget, but you would refuse a gift of $250 because it doesn't solve the entire problem. Any politician who "wouldn't bother" for four points is not much of a politician, IMO.

[Proud2BAmurkin]

24. Agree, the Edwards to Obama vote is a fantasy. If they were for Obama they'd be with Obama.

nt

[robcon]

26. In other words, if Edwards drops out, Edwards' supporters won't vote?

Pathetically lame post, IMO.

[Renew Deal]

25. That's terrific for Obama.

I think those numbers are great for Obama.

[Bullet1987]

28. C'mon...another misleading national poll

States like Iowa with large union or populist backings would DEFINENTLY help Obama if Edwards dropped out. You can't use some BS national poll to justify something on a state-by-state basis.

[origin1286]

29. 2:1 would have made...

Iowa: 58%-39% Obama

New Hampshire: 48%-45% Obama

If recent polling in Nevada and SC are accurate

Nevada: 50%-39% Obama

South Carolina: 53%-38% Obama

So...

Where is the false hope again?

[Bullet1987]

32. Jackson_Dem is misleading again...

[redqueen]

33. Not really news to me...

I never assumed all his support would somehow automatically go to Obama.

[indimuse]

34. Edwards is a fighter and NOT going anywhere!

Nor should he...

[robcon]

37. We'll see. My prediction: he'll be gone before Super Tuesday.

n/t

[Freddie Stubbs]

35. It doesn't resuce Obama, but he certainly gets a greater increse in support than Hillary

[Clarkansas]

36. Hillary +4, Obama +8. That looks very good for Obama

and is what I would expect.

[Infinite Hope]

38. That's why Edwards staying in the race is good for Obama.

He ensures his support is kept "under one roof" and then can give Obama the delegates at the convention to put him over the top.