Clinton holds crushing lead with nearly 50% support-New CNN Poll

[Tropics_Dude83]

Looking at the just released CNN National Poll, I feel foolish for thinking the nomination could go to anybody besides Hillary Clinton.

It's: Clinton 49%, Obama 36%.

Being near 50 percent is huge as well. It's also of note that, as Jay Cost, pointed out, Clinton's win in New Hampshire put together the Mondale coalition so perfectly that she did it better than he did. She won NH. Mondale didn't!

Mccain also holds a crushing lead but I don't have the numbers.

[MadBadger]

1. We'll see where those numbers stand after Nevada and SC

[skipos]

2. Clinton 08 and Mondale 84 will have a lot in common.

I don't know if Hillary can win MN like Mondale did though.

[DemocratSinceBirth]

9. Ahhhh

Lashing out indiscriminately is always the last resort of the defeated...

[skipos]

20. So why is Hillary lashing out then? She certainly isn't defeated yet.

I don't think that will happen until November.

[DemocratSinceBirth]

24. Who Has She Lashed Out At

I'm glad you're hoping for a Democratic loss in November...I think the board you're looking for is that way- >>>>>>>>>

[skipos]

32. The Clinton/Bloomberg/Nader/McCain race you are hoping for

is recipe for a Democratic loss. And I am not hoping for that, sorry.

[DemocratSinceBirth]

35. Jesus Christ Wouldn't Have Beat Reagan In 84

Just as Jesus Christ wouldn't have beat Johnson In 64

Or FDR in 40

Or Clinton in 96

I can think of a lot more examples...

[skipos]

41. Jesus Christ could be McCain. Obama and Edwards too. Hillary can't

with Bloomberg and Nader in the race, *imo.* I would love to be wrong, but I would also love to have a nominee that I don't dislike.

[DemocratSinceBirth]

45. Edwards Couldn't Even Carry His Own State In 04

Obama polls eleven points worse than what he actually gets in votes...Yeah, that's the ticket...That means if we go into the election leading by ten points (a landslide) we're going to lose by one percentage point...

[skipos]

48. Edwards got the 4% boost you would expect

but it doesn't matter in a state with a PVI of +14R.

Biden, Dodd and Richardson would poor horribly against Giuliani right now, but that doesn't mean they would lose to him. Polls matter a lot more when everyone knows the candidates and has been exposed to them. The only candidates that *everyone* knows, not just the politically active, are Hillary and Giuliani. McCain and Edwards are close, but still behind. And if you don't believe me about Edwards' lower name recognition, look it up. I guess some people don't pay much attention to VPs.

Polling Americans who aren't paying attention is useless. Polling Iowans, who have payed more attention, is probably more indicative. A SUSA poll from a few days ago had Obama 55, McCain 38 and Hillary 44, McCain 48.

You can work for the Hillary/Bloomberg/Nader/McCain race you desire, but I am going to work against it.
Everyone knows Hillary, and @50% are committed to voting against her. Good luck with that.

[DemocratSinceBirth]

52. No-Gore -Lieberman In 00 And Kerry-Edwards Both Got 43% Of The Vote In NC In 04

John Edwards is 2-31 in elections... The two wins being his 98 Senate race and the primary race in his birth state in the 04 primary...

You miss my point...Obama led Hillary by eight percent on the eve of the New Hampshire primary...That's what New Hampshire voters told the pollsters then they went out and did the opposite...They lied to the pollsters...That should scare you!!!

[krkaufman]

69. The people didn't lie to the pollsters. That's speculation.

The people simply weren't "firm" in their support for Obama, as the shift had mostly occurred within the last 5 days. Then, on election day, they may have changed their minds and voted for a different Democrat based on intervening events... or ... being led to believe by the media's misreporting what the polls actually said (leaving out the "firmness" caveats and numbers), that Obama was a runaway train in NH and couldn't be stopped, they decided their votes might be more needed on the Republican side.

[last_texas_dem]

74. But if you look at the partisan voting index totals

the Kerry-Edwards ticket improved 4-percent over the Gore-Lieberman ticket. Meaning, NC voted 4-percent more Democratic in 2004 than they had in 2000 when you compare how they voted to how the country as a whole voted in the Kerry-Edwards race vs. the Gore-Lieberman race.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Cook_Partisan_Voting_Index

[krkaufman]

68. Ummm... You mean Kerry couldn't carry Edwards' state, right?

I think the SC results were far more affected by the top of the ticket than the bottom.

[fightindonkey]

81. skipos, Keep Telling Us What Your Psychic Readings Are Telling you!

Dumbass.

[no name no slogan]

47. Nixon in '72

the fix was in WAY before we even nominated McGovern

[Beacool]

73. Good one!!!!!!!!

:rofl:

[Renew Deal]

39. You'll know a whole lot about that if Hillary is the nominee.

;)

[Muttocracy]

11. LOL!

I like Mondale but that really made me laugh.

Where is MN these days? I lived there during the rise of Jesse Ventura and Norm Coleman.

Hoping it's swung back again

[no name no slogan]

49. Last GOP president to win MN was Nixon in 72

currently, the DFL controls both the state house and senate. 1/2 our congresscritters and US senators are DFL, the other half GOP.

Coleman is up for re-election this year, and is about as popular as a case of the clap. The DFL could run Dick Fransen against him and win.

The Repubs in MN are on the ropes, and have been since they took a serious beating in '06.

[sniffa]

57. I'm beyond excited for Coleman's replacement.

I love the idea of Senator Franken. :loveya:

[Muttocracy]

58. Coleman going out

Hurrah! He took Wellstone's seat, right? Now THAT was insult on injury.

Coleman's one of those politicians where you can't even respect him for sticking to his beliefs :eyes:

[Nedsdag]

17. You're right.

This is exactly like 1984 all over again, with a hint of 1968 in it as well.

Especially if Bloomberg's third party movement takes off.

[DemocratSinceBirth]

28. Humphrey Lost By A Fraction Of A Percent

Most observers say if the race was held a week later he would have won... He had already closed a fourteen point post convention gap...

[paparush]

34. Best Bert Breathed (Opus) Cartoon Ever-

Its the 84 election
The Prairie Party (PP) is holding its convention in the same hotel as the Dems.
A Mondale supporter meets a PP supporter in the hallway.
The Mondale supporter asks, "So, who is the PP running against Reagan?"
The PP supporter replies, "A dead cat and a flightless bird..."
Last frame is the Mondale supporter removing his hat and sash and joining the PP.

[Rock_Garden]

3. K&R, and whoohoo!!!

[goldcanyonaz]

4. YES!! Fired up and ready to go!

[Big Blue Marble]

5. Oh how original.

:sarcasm:

[Buzz Clik]

6. Excellent. Those polls are infallible. Cue the music, prepare for the inauguration.

[DemocratSinceBirth]

13. No... You Have To Factor In That Obama Actually Polls About Eight Points Better Than He Actually

Does When People Vote

[Buzz Clik]

16. Well, that settles it! If Hillary has 50% (and who can doubt that),

... then Obama is screwn.

[DemocratSinceBirth]

31. No -It Just Means It's Not 49-36 But 57-36

~

[sunonmars]

26. well if its like NH....

she's about 10% underestimated, if you want to start that

[William769]

7. I'm not going to hold my breath.

I'm staying out of polling till Super tuesday.

[2rth2pwr]

8. Hope is on the way! nt

[Cant trust em]

10. Let's not forget what happened before NH

[Big Blue Marble]

12. Post NH bounce.

We will have to see what happens after Nevada and SC. If Obama loses both. I agree it is over
and we will have a McCain administration. Sometimes you cannot save people from themselves.
I am still very hopeful that the people of NC will recognize the importance of Obama's candidacy.
We shall see.

[Radical Activist]

14. Her lead keeps shrinking.

I'm sure the trend will continue. Of course we see what her lead in national polls evaporated into in Iowa and New Hampshire.

[DemocratSinceBirth]

19. Shrinking

It was all tied up on the evening of the New Hampshire primary...

[Radical Activist]

27. In national polls?

I missed that one. She has been leading in all of them for the entire campaign.

[Cameron27]

15. Great news,

but polls are polls. I'll wait and see. :-)

[zulchzulu]

18. Have a link?

Welcome to DU btw...

[MadBadger]

23. I can confirm that it was on CNN about five min ago.

[Omega3]

38. here's a link

some of the polls here are a little old, some not. just put your cursor over any state.

http://www.electoral-vote.com/

[Tropics_Dude83]

21. Absent a scandal...

Absent a scandal, I don't see how she isn't the nominee. It was something like 53-23 in the mid-December ABC poll. So true about not being able to save people from themselves.

An example, Mccain beats Clinton by 8 points in Maryland. Our other two frontrunners are up by 8 over Mccain.

Just saying...

[Thrill]

22. Lets see them after Neveda and SC

[sunonmars]

25. So basically she not only....

stopped the momentum juggernaut, she flung it off the rails.

[Name removed]

29. Deleted message

Message removed by moderator. Click here to review the message board rules.

[surfermaw]

30. Again Bill Clinton knows how to win primaries, you learn that early in the south

back when Clinton was growing up in the south, most states were democratic solid, you had to get out there and win the primary...Carter knew how to win primaries, after the primaries in a state, you knew that the GE woud be the same/

[alcibiades_mystery]

33. It's over

As I noted this morning.

Obama will play it out, but it's effectively over.

[beachmom]

37. If it's so "over", then why are the Clintons writing off NV? I am not sure

how predictive national polls are. And frankly, I don't really believe state polls either after the NH primary.

I think we have to wait for the actual votes honestly. Which makes it all a nailbiter, that's for sure.

[alcibiades_mystery]

43. Absolutely wait for the votes

But it's not really an "any given Sunday" sort of thing. It boils down to on-the-ground organization, entrenched positions, and machine politics. Luckily, this time some of the big states will be in play, rather than afterthoughts, but the big states will nail it in. That's where the Clinton campaign has its embedded institutional and organizational strength. They've also been more effective with their arguments. That's not to say that their arguments are better. They're just better at wearing people down with them. The absolutely despicable way that some Clinton supporters have behaved on this board in the last week is an obvious example. Eight, ten, fifteen posts an hour, many dishonest or filled with hyperbole. It wins. It simply does. They are relentless, and that's why they're going to win.

Senator Clinton is a wonderful and caring person, and will likely make an excellent President.

Many of her supporters on this board, on the other hand, are beneath contempt.

[Andromeda]

77. I'm a Hillary supporter and I,

take exception of your characterization of Clinton supporters. Maybe some are offensive, I'll give you that, even though I haven't read any posts that come anywhere near the hate and vitriol that comes from some of the Obama supporters.

I have never said one mean thing about Obama except that I can't support him because I don't feel that he is ready to become president. My issues with him are valid. I don't hit below the belt.

People that hate Hillary don't just stop with saying they're not going to vote for her because they don't like her policies; they go for the juggler! They get personal. They critisize her age, her wrinkles, her laugh and her emotional reaction to a question asked her in an interview.

Those are the people who are beneath contempt.

[alcibiades_mystery]

82. Well

You're blinded by your bias.

[1corona4u]

56. I don't think they are writing of Nevada....

I think she'll win Nevada.

[AGirl]

36. I am not suprised

I am a regular user of facebook and myspace and I’ve noticed that even the younger people on those sites are beginning to be less hostile to Hillary Clinton after the win in NH, you know Hillary is winning when the notorious young suburban male voters are warming up to her.

[Vincardog]

40. Are we back to the inevitable mode now?

[LittleClarkie]

60. And that's such a great way to win votes and influence folks

doncha know.

[Cha]

64. Yeah, and I like that

inevitable mode so they can get knocked off their freakshow pedastal.

[RamboLiberal]

42. Problem still comes down to can she win the General

And the damn electoral votes scare me!

[suston96]

44. Where are you "looking" at that CNN poll?

[Tropics_Dude83]

46. Link

http://www.time-blog.com/real_clear_politics/

Since some of you think this poll is being made up

[Lucinda]

51. Don't take it personally. There have been a lot of "poll wars" here lately.

:D
Welcome to DU!

[slick8790]

50. Perhaps you should check the RCP poll averages.

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2008/president/us/democratic_presidential_nomination-191.html


Yeah, looks like an absolute runaway.

[jeffrey_X]

53. wow...this is just like two months ago!!! :rolleyes:

eom

[workinclasszero]

54. Those who fail to learn from history...

Yeah that Mondale coalition worked so well the first time.:sarcasm:

Lets see what happens in Nevada and SC before we go off the deep end.

Its one thing to capture the nomination of your party, its another thing to get the nod from the people at large.

We all know how horrible Hillary's negatives are with independents right?

Just sayin...

[calteacherguy]

55. You are certainly fond of unrestrained hyperbole, LOL. nt

[CyberPieHole]

59. Welcome to DU Tropics_Dude83...

Although the news is good for Senator Clinton, I prefer not to rely on polls after NH. Still, I'll take those numbers any day~~~~hopefully they will hod up but there are a lot of states in play and nothing is certain.

:hi:

:kick: and recommend

[indimuse]

62. lol...what a name....:))

Awesome poll news! let's hope they hold.:woohoo:
:applause:
:kick:

[ColesCountyDem]

61. While national polls are interesting, we select our nominee state-by-state.

National polls don't mean much, frankly.

[Thickasabrick]

63. Poll...Schmoll - I don't trust them anymore. A bad hair day before

the election could change the results. We need to stop being obsessed with the polls and try to focus on how bad the republicans look right now. :)

[ileus]

65. 50% = 50 states....Hillary 2008.

[AntiFascist]

66. Diebold is getting awfully brave n/t

[Infinite Hope]

67. I don't buy it. n/t

[Wisconsin for Hill]

70. done deal... Edwards and Obama need to concede

...or be no more than 2008 versions of Nader 2000. Or 2008 versions of Kucinich in any election year.

[last_texas_dem]

75. Is this post a joke?

[martymar64]

86. Fuck off with your anti-democracy bullshit

You want a coronation,not an election.

Fuck you and your royalist attitude.

[Wisconsin for Hill]

87. no, YOU stfu

you jerk.

[Barack_America]

71. This poll was among REGISTERED DEMOCRATS ONLY!

That is very important to note. It in no way represents the opinion of the entire nation and is not an approximation of what the general election might look like.

Just want to make sure the right information is out there.

[SmellsLikeDeanSpirit]

72. When and if Hilldawg gets the nomination, DU will go into meltdown mode

[depakid]

76. "I feel foolish" -as well you should for relying on cheap media polls

[Perry Logan]

78. Does being smeared make you stronger? Have 15 years of incontinent slander made Hillary invincible?

[Major Hogwash]

79. Since when does CNN decide American elections?

They don't! Fuck CNN! Fuck the mainstream media!

I suppose you believe their version of the Iranian speedboat incident, too, just because CNN says so, huh?

[fightindonkey]

80. Republicans Would Lose To A Chicken. They're DONE!

[NoBorders]

83. Glad to see Obama trending up

After Nevada and SC, they should at least be tied again.

[vee]

84. Clinton the Cryer.. em Crusher....Clinton The Crying Crusher!!

[martymar64]

85. If Clinton wins the nom, say hello to President McCain.

They're two peas in a pod, pro-war, pro-likud, pro-bombing iran, pro-outsourcing, anti-worker, pro-corporate, pro-Blackwater, pro-domestic spying.

Either way, this country is fucked.

[Perry Logan]

88. If any anti-Clinton people wish to leave the party now, you have my permission.

[MonkeyFunk]

89. hell

I'll bake a cake!

[Perry Logan]

90. I just hope they weren't lying when they said they'd leave the party.