The million dollar question?

[debatepro]

Fresh of his victory in NH… McCain seems to have the momentum.

1. He was recently endorsed by Detroit News and Freep.
http://tpmelectioncentral.com/2008/01/new_ad_michigan_newspapers_back_mccain.php

2. Rasmussean and another outfit has him overtaking Huck in SC.
http://tpmelectioncentral.com/polltracker/scpres_r/

3. Survey US has him within 3 of ghouliani in New York
http://tpmelectioncentral.com/polltracker/nypres_r/

4. Rasmussean has him in the lead for GOP candidates overtaking Huck
http://tpmelectioncentral.com/polltracker/pres_08_r/


Given that McCan’t has typically done well with independents, which of our 3 candidates has the best shot as siphoning off some of those independent voters and being the next president of the United States?

[ayeshahaqqiqa]

1. Personally, I think Edwards, followed by Obama, then Clinton

Here's my reasoning: Edwards is from the South. Many Southerners I know will vote for another Southerner before they vote for someone from another region. Obama and Clinton both have handicaps-Obama has the "Muslim" smear and Clinton has, for good and bad, the legacy of her husband. The rw noise machine has been talking against her for years, and that persistent noise has got to have had an effect on many voters.

[debatepro]

3. Question

Where might we see early proof of this southerns vote for southerns phenomenon? Edwards winning the democratic primary in South Carolina?

Back to the first question: Wouldn't the person who wins most of the independent voters in the primary be more likely to the best matchup against McCain?

[ayeshahaqqiqa]

6. Answers

The Southerners voting for Southerners phenomenon I have noticed here in Arkansas. In 2004, for example, our local Democratic Committee chair stated flatly that he would not support Kerry or Dean because they were "Yankees", and if Clark or Edwards weren't at the top of the ticket, the committee would sit out the election. It took an independent group made up of "newcomers" to the region to raise funds to post signs/newspaper ads for Kerry/Edwards and to offer rides to the polls. Maybe it is something that is localized to the Ozarks; I hope so.

As to your second question--it depends upon where that primary is held. If Candidate X is able to win the most independents in NH, but doesn't do the same in states rich in electoral votes, we're sunk. That's one reason I wish all candidates could stay in the primary race until more than two states have voted. Another problem is that many states have closed primaries, and therefore independents tend not to vote. I have many acquaintances from Illinois who never vote in primaries because they don't want to have to declare for one party or the other.

[northzax]

2. Rasmussen?

the group that had Obama up by 17 points on Monday night? those guys? come on.

[debatepro]

4. Clearly: Your missing the point!!!

Pretend McCain wins... Who is the best match up? The data just points out what we all thought was impossible this summer. That is that McCain is positioned pretty well over the next couple weeks.

[northzax]

7. well, no

my point is that Rasmussen is almost always an outlier poll, and this entire post is based on Rasmussen polling.

and any combination of Hillary/Obama/Edwards beats McCain, the man is old and tired and you can tell.

[debatepro]

8. Ok...

so empirical statistical data (not just what I posted but historically) that says McCain does well with Independents is trumped by "any combination of Hillary/Obama/Edwards beats McCain, the man is old and tired and you can tell." The reason for your argument the man is old and tired?

Lets not kid ourselves... most republicans will vote republican even if its McCain and most democrats will vote democrat even if it's Hillary... the question is which one is best poised to take independents and siphon off some republican votes.

[northzax]

9. McCain has a good reputation with independants

compared to the wingnuts he's running against. Give Obama/Hillary/Edwards a week, and hopefully they are smart and tough enough to show him as the Bush Lovin little bootlicker he is.

[debatepro]

5. Obama

I'll pick Obama because he has done better than the other candadates with Independents and republicans.

Exit polling New Hampshire:
http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/21225995/
Indepenents -
Obama 41%
Clinton 31%
Edwards 18%


Exit polling Iowa:
http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/21225980/
Independents -
Obama 41%
Edwards 23%
Clinton 17%

Exit polling Iowa:
http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/21225980/
Republicans -
Obama 44%
Edwards 32%
Clinton 10%