Obama must win South Carolina and probably will

[quinnox]

I think South Carolina is a must win state for Obama for a few reasons. One is he is leading comfortably there in polling. Two, it has a large black population, if Obama can't win there it will show a critical lack of ability to appeal to an important core base of Democrats.
Three, he needs another win to show Iowa wasn't a fluke.

I think Hillary will probably win Nevada, and it will be close to a must win because otherwise Obama may gain too much momentum if he wins both Nevada and South Carolina.

If they both win those respective states, then it will of course come down to a super tuesday battle royal.

[skipos]

1. SC is a must win for Obama and anyone who doesn't want to see

Hillary vs. Bloomberg and Nader and McCain in 2008.
I know I don't.

[tired_old_fireman]

4. Threats, threats, threats

I am so sick of people trying to threaten other people into voting for Obama.

[KingFlorez]

9. I agree

These threats are getting ridiculous

[skipos]

11. I don't think Bloomberg and Nader are threatening people into voting for Obama

Bloomberg sees Hillary as the a polarazing candidate he could beat. I think he is rooting for Hillary.
Nader hates Hillary a ton, and has indicated he would run against her, but hasn't told anyone to vote for Obama.

[Andy823]

25. The politics of fear!

Sounds more like the republicans, doesn't it? Those who use these tactics better "fear" that the public doesn't wake up and see that the only one with any substance is Joh Edwards, and if that happens, the other two are toast! :woohoo:

[Anouka]

10. I agree n/t

[BringBigDogBack]

30. also agree

[cali]

2. I agree. If Obama doesn't win in SC

I think he's in big trouble. But I'm not convinced that Clinton will win in NV.

[Drunken Irishman]

3. I think So. Carolina is a must win for Obama and Nevada is a must win for Clinton.

If Obama takes both Nevada and So. Carolina, he will be on his way to some big mo heading into Super Tuesday. If they split, you've got to give a slight edge to Clinton and if Clinton wins both, it's over.

With that said, I think Obama stands a far better chance of winning Nevada than Clinton does of winning So. Carolina.

[tired_old_fireman]

5. Even if Clinton loses both states, I would never count her out.

[Drunken Irishman]

13. Of course you shouldn't count her out, but it would be very difficult.

Anything is possible, but if Obama wins both states, he'll have won 3 to Hillary's 1 heading into Super Tuesday (not counting Michigan, since he's not on the ballot there). That would be big enough momentum to carry Obama to some big wins on Super Tuesday, which could make him the clear frontrunner.

With that said, I think you can basically say the same thing about Clinton. If she wins both, it's, in my opinion, over.

I don't see how either Obama or Clinton can comeback from losing those two states, since the campaign will dramatically shift. It's one thing to comeback in ONE state, it's another to do it nationally and that's exactly what either would have to do if they lost both states.

[Renew Deal]

20. Insert Chris Matthews joke here

:D

[Frances]

21. Agree. The same goes for Obama.

IMO. both Obama and Hillary would still have a chance on Feb 5 if either lost both South Carolina and Nevada.

Everyone keeps assuming that Obama will get the African American vote in South Carolina.

But what if there is a gender gap among African Americans just as there is among other groups?

[quinnox]

7. I normally never agree with you but

this time I think you are batting 1000.

[Renew Deal]

19. This is my view as well. n/t

[librechik]

6. Are you kidding? Dem leadership has already decided that Obama's The One

they like that narrative, and everyone else is going to be ignored to death--by them.

The Republicans still want Hillary. They will finance her battle to the bitter end, praying that Huckabee gets raptured before the convention and of course either the puppet McCain or the evil Giuliani will be Left Behind as their Dark Overlord. It's all good.

[cali]

14. wrong. Dem leadership is overwhelmingly supporting

Clinton still. All you have to do is look at her Super Delagates. She has 3x as many Obama.

[librechik]

15. so--why the Big Movement to Obama? Kerry, Napolitano, I could go on

there is a trend to endorse O v C. Please explain this to me, given the fact that Clinton has so many delegates. What is going on? Is there a DNC/DLC split? I can't figure it out.

[cali]

24. I believe that some dems see her as fallible do to Iowa

and they've long seen her as weak in the general. They want the White House. This isn't about the DNC or the DLC. It's about putting up the strongest candidate.

[librechik]

27. there's strong and there's strong, though

If you are thinking about the General, polling still shows Edwards beating every pukkke, while H&O are mixed in various matchups. Seems risky when we have a sure thing in hand. Why aren't they throwing everything behind Edwards, if the strongest candidate is the goal? Since we MUST win, is putting up a black/female (NO PRESIDENTIAL TRACK RECORD AT ALL) candidate the wisest course, or a sentimental favorite?

I still don't get what's going on. I see too much racism and misogyny among the electorate. Pukkes have stoked those fires relentlessly, and they will blaze up again when we pick one of their favorite pinatas.

I just feel like we're falling off a cliff, but everybody in charge is perfectly happy with that.

[cali]

29. Yes, I'm thinking of the general. Polls 10 months out are merely

a snapshot. People remember the Edwards of 2004. That's not what they'd get. The pukes would frame him as a world class hypocrite: Fortress, house, haircuts, flip flopping, etc. JE doesn't have the money to fight it and he can't raise it due to caps. Not to mention that Edwards has less experience than Clinton and Obama. But most of all, Edwards wasn't able to win in Iowa, a state he'd been campaigning in for over 3 years and that is not unduly effected by the MSM. They see what I see: If he can't swing Iowa he's a weak candidate in the general.

[librechik]

31. thx, cali--that was helpful n/t

[Anouka]

8. Why would Obama win blacks who don't think he's black in the first place?

and have such warm glowing memories of the Clinton administration?

This thinking of blacks as some monolith who will vote 100% for Obama is as offensive to me as thinking all women in America will vote for Hillary because she has a vagina.

Clinton had a toehold in South Carolina for a reason.

Clinton began losing that toehold because Obama proved himself viable after Iowa.. but she didn't lose it completely.

There are a variety of reasons for that, and those must be discussed instead of handing over the black vote to a black man in the same way so many are blithely wanting to hand over 'the woman vote' to a white woman.

[quinnox]

12. So do you think Hillary will win South Carolina?

[Anouka]

34. I think TPTB have too much money on Hillary for her to lose the nomination.

I will not vote for her in November.

South Carolina is moot.

[Big Blue Marble]

16. Do blacks really think that Obama is not black?

I have strong memories of how the black community rallied around Clarence Thomas and OJ Simpson because they felt
that the white power structure were out to get them. And your telling me they would not support Obama.

Obama has shown a strong ability to attract white voters both in Iowa and NH. He will win the black vote in NC because they
understand that he is an historic candidate that has national appeal.

[Anouka]

33. Obama's daddy is Africa black, not slave black.

That matters to a lot of people. He doesn't promise to be all about black folks like Jesse and Al; that matters to a lot of people, too. He's not 'pro-black' enough for them. It's a case of missing the forest for the leaves, nevermind the trees.

It's a case of not wanting to get hurt. Unfortunately, most of those saying this are Clinton supporters; so have to wonder what's really going on here.

I remember Clarence Thomas... and Anita Hill. The less said about that the better (I was on Thomas' side, by the way; I did not trust the way Anita Hill was brought in at the 11th hour to knock Thomas down. Whatever one may think about Thomas' years on the Supreme Court, that was wrong what was done to him through the surrogate black woman).

I remember OJ. That wasn't as tightknit as the Mike Tyson trial or the Rodney King verdicts. But there was some cosmic justice in a man finally being able to defend himself instead of being accused - rope around his neck - set on fire, within 24 hours of the accusation. You know, like back in the old days.

You want folks coming together, talk about the first few hours after the verdict came in from Simi Valley. THAT was ... that was unity like you wouldn't believe.

Where were you when the verdicts came in Koon, Powell, Briseno and Wind's favor?

I know where I was. That was black folks 9/11. Or 9/11 was white folks Rodney King verdict. Take your pick. The feeling of unity in abject helplessness.... nah, I don't think whites have a comparable event to April 29, 1992 -- not even the OJ verdict. But I could be wrong, since I'm not white, and should not speak for whites.

[MethuenProgressive]

17. Do they use evil optical scanners in SC?

Just prepping in case he loses.
:popcorn:

[KoKo]

23. They use the DRE's in SC....

[BenDavid]

18. I too believe hrc will win the nevada caucus cause according

to SOME obama people there will be enough racist whites and hispanic folks to give hrc the win....I know that is awful to write but it is looking exactly like that in here from SOME obama folks....if you do not support obama then you must dislike black people and be called a "racist".

You obama folks do not know a damn thing about me, but I will let you in on something, both my parents and I are Jews and both live in Mississppi and both went through all that hatred in the 50's 60's and 70's and there is still bigots and racist out there today. we all saw the hatred not only towards blacks but also Jews as well. Read and saw the church burnings and the crosses burned in the yards. Blacks, Jews, Christians killed because they stood up to the hatred of the racists.

I dislike obama cause he is a fraud, and self appointed messiah. Hell Oprah out there calling him "the one" I thought I was having flashbacks of Neo in The Matrix....he too was some type of messiah....but what really turned me completely off obama is the following. This happened on Monday morning....Obama speaking before a crowd said, " tomorrow when you go into that booth, the heavens will open and a light will shine down on you and as you are standing there you will have an epiphany, and you will hear, vote for obama, and you will vote for me.......This is not an exact quote but damn close enough.....

[AX10]

26. He sounds like Huckabee.

:puke:

The self-appointed messiah crap is beyond Bush.

[robcon]

22. No single state is a must win.

This is a classic 'setting up to fail' thread.

Even CA is not a must win - if the other candidate wins the big ones like NY, IL, PA, etc.

[goldcanyonaz]

28. I totally agree with you. What's with the rush to end the process?

[butterfly77]

32. Can the racists repubs vote in either party?