Obama vs McCain - McCain wins ... if the following scenario plays out

[demo dutch]

I think that experience will become a bigger issue down the line and if it's Obama vs McCain in the GE, one terror alert, and I'm afraid that the Indies (leaning Dem or GOP) will drop Obama like a hot potatoe. Whether the terror is fake or not, the probability that this will occur is pretty likely since the GWB/GOP Administration will do anything to win, as we know. I think that the GWB administration might be very motivated to repair the massive damage they've inflicted on their party. We might be underestimating them (incl. Rove) once again and it's a long stretch between March and the GE, anything can happen.

As far as underestimating McCain, according to KO, the GOP leadership is already discussing who would be the most likely candicate to beat the Dems and McCain has come up on several oocasions. They're crunching the numbers and if it's McCain or losing the WH, they'll push through McCain, because he is the most centrist of the bunch, and thus likely to get the most sway-votes. So, despite his views on immigration, and opposition within the GOP party from the extremists, in the end the entire GOP (as they always do) will support him. The fact that he's anti-abortion will be used as the key to(grudgingly) win over the religious right. Several Wash consultants have already mentioned his scenario.
So there it is! Now some feedback please!


Posted this earlier but giving it another wirl

(BTW, on issues, I personally prefer John Edwards.)

[Clarkansas]

1. McCain is old, semi-senile and uninspiring. The only one he could be would be Clinton. eom

[demo dutch]

2. Agreed but that's not the point, it's how the indies take a terror stunt

[BlueManDude]

3. He's old but he's not Bob Dole

Dole was never close to Clinton in the polls. McCain beats every Dem right now and my observation is that Dems usually always lead in the polls at this point. Guys like Mondale and Dukakis were ahead at this time in their respective elections.

Also - there wll be the inevitable Osama Bin Laden "help get the GOP elected" tape sometime in the fall.

[ileus]

4. McCain is too old, Obama will win us 39 states against him....not the 50 hillary brings us.

[TheDebbieDee]

5. Randi Rhodes mentioned on her show yesterday.......

that if Sen. Obama is the Democratic candidate and the repuke candidate is McCain, the repubes will hammer the hell out of the experience issue.

Sen. Obama's supporters on this board shut down the experience but I'm sure the republicants will hammer the experience issue 8 days a week. That may be another reason for the repubes to prefer Sen. Obama as the Democratic candidate.

[ihelpu2see]

10. Hillary does not have much more experience... Living in the WH does not garnish

her experience. Plus, McCain can be beaten with the Iraq war. Obama has presented the argument and presented it well. The war was wrong, any US soldier deaths are sad but policy put forth by those like Sen. McCain only have increased the chance for more brave soldiers dying. More over the Surge has not worked....

If you continue to remind the American people of these facts McCain can not win. Especially since he has stated that he would have went to war even with out WMD intel and he will keep troops there for 100 years if needed.....???? If needed for what??? to secure our nations oil????? Our soldiers blood for Oil??? Even trade Sen. McCain ?? Was your blood, Mr. McCain ,worth the attempt to stop Communism in south east asia?? Especially in hind sight now, when we buy metric tons of cloths made by those commies in Vietnam...

[demo dutch]

15. Right on!

[earthlover]

6. "potatoe"? As in Dan Quayle?

[demo dutch]

16. Oops slip of the keyboard, How embarrassing, I can't edit

[still_one]

7. Such experience mccain has, taking bribes for the S&L scandal

against honoring MLK, believes we should stay in Iraq indefinitely, was for the South Dakota anti-abortion bill which stated EVEN if the Mother's life was in danger, you couldn't perform an abortion

No, we have had enough experience with people like him to last a lifetime

and when you have him in SC and also Detroit saying the economy is essen tally doing well, that won't cut it with the people

experience isn't the issue, it is what are you going to do verses the other candidates, that is what will resonate

[OHdem10]

8. McCain is running ahead at this time in Michigan, SC

To 20somethings-30somethings McCain looks old.
There is a little problem here. Over 40s look at life
differently. They do not see McCain as old and senile.
There are so many more over 40s who vote. There are simply more of them.
If he gets the Candidacy, he will be the most difficult
for Democrats.

[On the Road]

9. I Agree -- I Think McCain Beats Obama and Possibly Clinton

That's where an Edwards candidacy would help.

[jerryster]

11. McCain worries me as well

There are a few things I see as potential pitfalls for us in November, regardless of our nominee.

If it's Obama the Repubs will absolutely hammer away at the experience issue. Keep in mind that it hasn't really stuck so far. Repubs will MAKE SURE that it does. And they will be able to say that they're not saying anything other Dems didn't say,most notably Hillary AND Bill.

The torture issue also goes away if McCain gets the nomination. He stood alone (among Repub candidates) condemning it.

What concerns me most, though is Giddiness About The Youth Vote 2008!
We have heard this before. This time the youth vote will turn out in greater numbers than ever before!! This time the youth vote will be what carries us to victory!! Will it happen? I hate like hell to agree with anything Joe Scarborough says, but he has pointed out, correctly, that politicians who depend on the youth vote get left standing at the altar every time. Will it be different for Obama if he's our nominee? I hope so, but history tells us otherwise.

Now I know your post is about Obama v McCain, but allow me to mention another concern if it's Hillary. I will vote for whoever the Dem is in November, but what about those enthusiastic Obama supporters? Will African Americans stay home? And the youth I mentioned earlier who aren't that reliable anyway? What if they're turned off to the point of not voting because it's not Obama? Believe it or not, we could be in another horse race.

McCain may also be able to bring back some Hispanic voters to the Repub side. Latest stats show Repubs have gone from 44% of Hispanic voters down to 26%. A staggering number, to be sure. However, McCain is not Tom Tancredo. He may be able to bring some back. You are also correct that the religious right may bite hard and support McCain as well.

[Clanfear]

12. I call BS.

Clinton nor Edwards have any more "experience".

[fightindonkey]

13. Security is #1. The Public Won't Vote For Obama. Nice "Change" Talk, Means Nothing To The Public

when the world is blowing up and rookie candidate with no credentials, wants to start working on the job, with only one term in the Senate.

[BringBigDogBack]

14. 72 year-old man who wants to keep us in "Iraq for 100 years" vs. Obama,

someone who spoke out against the war from the beginning, and wants us out? Yeah, I can see that happening.

People's pocketbooks are hurting. They're not going to vote to stay in Iraq indefinitely.

There are some holes in your theory

[demo dutch]

17. Not a theory perse, but entertaining how Indies "might" react to a terror situation

that's my only point. There are some weird reaction to consider for example, a neighbor, who was originally a Nader supporter ended up being a strong Bush supporter after 911. I was flabbergasted, & I would think that since then he got his sanity back, but maybe you see what I'm driving at.

[ieoeja]

18. "Americans wouldn't pick lettuce even if you paid them $50/hour." - John McCain, 2007 n/t