Breaking down Super Tuesday state by state

[Herman Munster]

http://www.openleft.com/showDiary.do?diaryId=3163

Overwhelmingly favorable to one candidate

Clinton: 4 states, 422 pledged delegates: Arkansas (35), Connecticut (48), New Jersey (107), New York (232). Clinton is former First Lady of Arkansas, and as current Senator of New York, her favorite daughter status spreads into Connecticut and New Jersey as well. Further, Clinton holds oversized leads of 25% in all of these states, and only Arkansas allows independents to vote in primaries.


Obama: 3 states, 258 pledged delegates: Georgia (87), Idaho (18), Illinois (153). Illinois is Obama's home state, obviously making the state favorable to him. Georgia is another very good state for Obama. Independents can vote in the Georgia primary, the state has the highest percentage first or second largest African-American population in the country (New York's might be larger, I'm not sure), and Obama either leads or is close in pre-Iowa polling of the state. Obama also leads in pre-Iowa polling in Idaho, where he should be favored in an open caucus system.
These are the core Super Tuesday states for Obama and Clinton. If either loses one of the states in the their core, it is all over. As such, these are not the keys to February 5th, and for all intents and purposes are off the table. Here is the next tier of states:

States That Favor Candidates Other Than Clinton and Obama

New Mexico (26): This is still Bill Richardson's state if he wants it. In fact, it is entirely possible that he will win here even if he drops out before February 5th. After all, Dean won Vermont in 2004, two weeks after he left the race. As a closed-party caucus, a large percentage of the participants will be in the Richardson-dominated state Democratic Party.

Oklahoma (38): This looks to be the best chance John Edwards has to win a state on February 5th. Opinion polling in Oklahoma has consistently shown him well ahead of Obama, and either tied or only slightly behind Clinton. Obama is not going to win this closed-primary state, but Edwards just might. In fact, given that his national profile has increased of late, he might be considered the favorite here now.
Both of those states are something of a blow to Clinton, since without Edwards or Richardson she almost certainly cleans up in both. While Clinton has an edge in the safe states, the two wild card states help out Obama a little bit.

Somewhat Favorable to one candidate

Clinton: 4 states, 232 delegates: Arizona (56), Delaware (15), Massachusetts (93), Tennessee (68). Arizona is a closed primary, which helps Clinton, and most polls in the state show Clinton with an oversized lead. Delaware and Massachusetts are also closed primaries where Obama has not polled well, and where Clinton sports a regional advantage. As far as Tennessee goes, Clinton led Gore in Tennessee polling. 'Nuff said tthere.

Obmaa: 2 states, 45 delegates: Alaska (13), Kansas (32). There are no polls out of Alaska, but the state is heavily disproportionately male, which will hurt Clinton. Obama has a home-state connection to Kansas, and has polled well in the state. Clinton could easily finish third in Kansas.
This leaves us with the battleground states, where Obama needs to win the majority. Specifically, because of the other advantages Clinton has on February 5th, there is no path to the nomination for Obama without California. If Obama wins California, he overcomes all of the other advantages Clinton has listed here. If Clinton wins California, her delegate total and narrative all but end the campaign.

February 5th Battleground: 7 states, 612 delegates: Alabama (62), California (370), Colorado (55), Minnesota (72), Missouri (72), North Dakota (13), Utah (23). Minnesota and North Dakota are caucuses, Utah is a closed primary, and the other four are open or semi-open primaries. I don't think there is a big difference between open (where Republicans and Independents can vote) and semi-open (where only Independents can vote) primaries, since the competitive Republican nomination campaign will keep most Republicans voting for their own. Nevada, plus these seven states, look set to decide the nomination. Or, perhaps more accurately, Nevada and California appear set to decide the nomination.

[Perky]

1. Not bad analysis but it snapshot based on today

There is alot of old polling out there. and if Obama wins in SC he is going to have the wind at his back.

[papau]

5. Obama will win SC - but I don't see that as having an effect unless the media pushes O in a big way

[cali]

2. I don't think CT is overwhelmingly a favorite for Clinton

Her favorite daughter status is doubtful there. MA? Another state that I don't think favors any candidate at this time. Because we disagree on the foundation of your analysis, there's not much point in saying more. Plus, I think the winner of SC gets a boost.

[stray cat]

3. NH was even wrong - so was Iowa

when polling was done the day before.

[eleny]

4. Colorado is now a caucus state for the presidency

Our August primary is for Congress and our Legislature.