On Edwards: Every candidate says that they are in for the long haul

[MadBadger]

And then when things dont go well, they drop out. Look at Richardson for example. He said he was in for the Western states that would be more favorable to him, and he has since dropped out. So why do we expect that Edwards will def stay through the convention? Maybe he wont. Maybe if he sees he has no shot, he drops out, who knows. But just because he says hes in it through the convention, doesnt mean he definitely is.

[Mythsaje]

1. And what would it say about him if he DID stay until the convention? n/t

[jackson_dem]

3. If he stays in no one will have a majority until the convention

Why leave the field when the game is not over? Only if he, or someone else (maybe after a disappointing Super Tuesday Obama will drop out?) quits can the top candidate get a majority of delegates.

[MadBadger]

4. I think this election will be decided on Super Tuesday

[jackson_dem]

6. See this

http://www.dailykos.com/story/2008/1/9/115957/8561/622/433655

We should have a clear leader after Super Tuesday but it won't be over until one candidate quits. If Obama wins several states but loses most of them on Super Tuesday it will be up to him (or Hillary if the opposite happens). If that candidate chooses to continue we will keep having three candidates split delegates and no one with a majority.

Edwards can hope for one of the big 2 being pressured to quit by the party on Super Tuesday, especially if it is the upstart Obama who is the loser that day. That would leave a two person battle to the end and give Edwards a shot as the alternative to Hill (or Barack).

[jackson_dem]

2. What does he have to lose by staying in?

Richardson goes back to being governor and can easily win a senate race. Biden and Dodd go back to the senate and chairing powerful committees. If Edwards is not on the ticket he goes home. Why not give it a shot and see if you can catch fire late like Reagan in 1976, Kennedy in 1980, and Jerry Brown in 1992? No one is going to get a majority if three strong candidates remain so that is an extra incentive for him to stay. This isn't 2004. Why not stay, collect delegates and perhaps use a late surge to be able to become the nominee when the dust settles? Or become the compromise candidate if Obama and Clinton finish ahead of him but neither has a majority? Or use your bloc of delegates to be a kingmaker at the convention and get the VP slot?

[Lisa0825]

5. True.

I won't blame him if he does decide to drop out, but I think it is too early at this point. By the end of January or February 1, I feel like his campaign should have a good grasp of how many delegates he has won and can estimate what his chances are on Super Tuesday. If Super Tuesday chances do not look promsising, I would not be surprised if he dropped out. I would hope that he'd throw his support to Obama if he does step aside.

[caligirl]

7. Edwards is driving the populist agenda in this primary, its in

our countries best interest this message is driven to the end of the primary and incorporated into the platform. Returning the party to what it was decades ago, New Deal stuff. We are at a time when his message is the counter and is pulling Hilary to change as the American public cries(sorry) for a new day in America.