My theories as to why HRC won in New Hampshire

[AnnieBW]

Okay, I'm not a political consultant, or have any on-the-ground knowledge of any campaign. Just my non-tinfoily take on things. For the record, since Bill Richardson is dropping out, I'm back to being undecided.

1) Hillary is from the Northeast, or at least lives there now. Obama is from the Midwest. It's probably a regional thing.

2) Independents and moderate Reps - who are scared sh*tless about Huckabible - came out for McCain, and did not cross over to vote for Obama like they did in Iowa.

3) The hostage incident in HRC's campaign office, which was handled very gracefully by Hillary and her staff. People remember that kind of thing.

4) The "Iron My Shirts" incident. That was an insult to every working woman, not just Hillary. It pissed off the women voters.

5) The incident with Jeanne Shaheen's husband. That may have left a bad taste in people's mouths about Obama.

6) Possibly less young people in NH than in Iowa.

Like I said, these are just my wild guesses. Either way, I'd be happy to vote for either HRC or Obama in the GE.

[RoyGBiv]

1. Here's my theory ...

She got more votes.

[1corona4u]

2. LOL...

nothing like cutting to ther chase.

[johncoby2]

3. Yea baby!

[merwin]

4. Thanks for the laugh.

[AX10]

5. That's actually what happened.

[RoyGBiv]

6. Funny how that works ...

:-)

[Fresh_Start]

7. and her team worked their butts off

GOTV

[RoyGBiv]

9. Yes ...

I've been particularly impressed by that.

I said early in the race, back when I found it absurd to be making predictions and wanted actually to *hear* the candidates before I made up my mind, that a lot of my decision-making would be based not on specific policy positions but on how the candidate conducted his or her (I must admit, I do like needing to use the phrase "his or her") campaign. Ms. Clinton is actually not my first choice, and I won't be voting for her in the primary unless my candidate of choice drops out before I get a chance to vote. But she and her team have impressed me to the point that I will have no qualms voting for her should that happen, and if she eventually gets the nomination, I'll cast my vote for her in the GE easily.

I say this as someone who voted for Kerry in the primaries. I *do not* want another Kerry campaign and have placed competence in campaigning much further ahead in my list of candidate qualities I desire than it once was. And before it is asked, my view is partly based on my belief that someone who runs a good campaign is showing qualities that will make them a good leader.

[fujiyama]

She is known as a hard worker and campaigner

I'll have to give her credit there.

[adapa]

30. Her GOTV organization was AMAZING!!!

I was on the ground helping, wow.
Every door was knocked on, told how to contact us if they needed a ride, He!!, driven to the polls by the canvasser's if they wanted to go right then.
It was amazing

[goldcanyonaz]

8. Exactly, she got more votes! Very profound in these parts. Thanks!

[harmonicon]

22. yeah, you beat me to the punch on this one.

Can we please discuss politics and not the politics of politics?

[Hippo_Tron]

26. That's not a theory, that is a fact

Kind of like how evolution is not a theory, it's a fact.

[caraher]

10. I've been thinking along the lines of explanation 2...

Was the turnout for the Republican primary substantially larger than the Democratic primary? If independents were motivated by feelings of "stop Huckabee" (or Romney) in numbers large enough to affect Clinton vs. Obama the turnout should provide circumstantial evidence.

(Apparently this is not likely... according to the AP more folks voted in the Democratic primary, and usually there are more Republican votes in NH primaries where both parties have contested races. Data from the article:

1992

Democratic ballots cast: 170,333

Republican ballots cast: 177,970

Libertarian ballots cast: 3,544

Turnout: 351,847 of 570,982 registered voters (including Libertarian primary): 61.6 percent

2000

Democratic ballots cast: 156,862

Republican ballots cast: 239,523

Turnout: 396,385 of 783,594 registered voters: 50.5 percent

2008 (Secretary of State prediction)

Democratic ballots cast: 260,000

Republican ballots cast: 240,000

Turnout: 500,000 (predicted) divided by: pre-Tuesday registration, 830,684, plus new registrants at the polls on Tuesday

Source: New Hampshire Secretary of State

Edited to add data from AP article

[RoyGBiv]

11. Turnout ...

Turnout for the Democrats was significantly higher than for Republicans. Independents gravitated toward Democrats.

Which bodes well for our chances in the GE, regardless of the eventual nominee.

[robbedvoter]

12. GOP turnout was far smaller. Obama got 16,000+ more votes than McCain

A lot of independents DID in fact cross over - but there was a high turnout in the Dems

[sandnsea]

13. Shaheen makes a racist smear

and it hurts the one he attacks??

Otherwise I agree with your assessment. I cannot believe her choking up, real or staged, influenced women to vote for her. You don't toss your Presidential candidate over something like that.

[BeyondGeography]

15. Go here and click on "female Clinton supporters in NH"

http://www.npr.org/templates/player/mediaPlayer.html?action=1&t=1&islist=false&id=17953420&m=17953943

Believe it.

[sandnsea]

16. I think they were looking for an excuse

I think they supported her to begin with, and were trying to decide whether to get on board with the historic movement that was sweeping the country, or stay with their "girlfriend", which is how a lot of women see her. I don't think many woman who had no particular affinity for Hillary saw this stuff and decided they had to go vote. You can always find an anecdote for anything, but I really think it's more women in that region want a woman President.

[BeyondGeography]

17. Did you listen?

The first woman was deciding between McCain, Edwards and Obama before she saw the video and decided to vote for Clinton. She wasn't even thinking Hillary/woman president until Monday. The only way to understand at least part of the discrepancy between Monday's polling and Tuesday's result is that large numbers of women decided late in the day that they wanted a woman for president or just to show solidarity and support her candidacy. NPR found three in the same town without much effort.

[sandnsea]

18. You can find an anecdote for anything

I think I already said that. If you want to believe hundreds of women make their Presidential vote that carelessly, I guess you're welcome to believe it. I just don't, that's all.

[BeyondGeography]

19. There was a 16-point swing in the women's vote in Obama's polling

from Monday to Tuesday. I'm not choosing to believe anything, but that kind of movement demands an explanation. Do you have one?

[sandnsea]

20. zogby said it shifted Sunday night

He had Clinton moving back within 2. It's a rolling poll so the shift didn't register. A lot of women want a woman President.

[BeyondGeography]

21. It was reduced to 2 points on the last round of polling on Monday

not Sunday.

[sandnsea]

23. I thought he said Sunday

but okay, it was Monday. I still don't think women who weren't inclined to vote for her changed their minds over this tape. I just don't. I don't know any women who are that flighty.

[BeyondGeography]

24. Here's another thing he said

==John Zogby, whose New Hampshire surveys showed Obama ahead by eight points, said late-deciding voters scrambled polls. "Eighteen percent made up their minds on the day of the election," Zogby said. "If that's a trend, that's a problem for pollsters."==

http://www.newsday.com/news/nationworld/ny-uspoll0110,0,438118.story

[sandnsea]

25. Like I said

A lot of women who were inclined to vote for Hillary, but thinking about the historic Obama movement, deciding to go ahead and go with their 'girlfriend'. They wanted a woman President more than an inspiring one.

[fightindonkey]

14. Let's See, No Record, No Experience, Can't Handle Debates, And He's Black

Do the math.

[Hippo_Tron]

27. The pollsters got Obama's level of support right, they just drastically underestimated Clinton's

Obama got 37% which is within the margin of error for most of the polls taken. The polls erred by putting Clinton at no higher than 30% when in fact she got 39%. It seems to me that Clinton got a lot of people out to vote that the polls didn't account for, just as Obama did in Iowa. When only a small percentage of eligible voters actually vote in a primary election, it is very possible to prove the pollsters wrong.

[Essene]

28. correct

Huge chunks of undecided and independent voters were in the air in the last 2 days.

Those wanting to pretend this was about a tear or a comment at the debate are deluding themselves amidst the pundit spin. NH voted for the two most high-profile brand-named candidates who had experience as they saw it.

I suspect some of Obama's independents actually moved to Mccain and Hillary as the voting day came. Not because they dislike Obama, but because the experience argument won in NH.

She won the core base by a good margin. She won with women. The independents liked Obama a bit more, but she got enough of them to pull out a slim margin victory.






And that's assuming there wasn't voter fraud involving 6k votes.

[ShortnFiery]

29. Specifically, the DLC spin machine, planted operatives and other smarmy bag-o-tricks. eom.

http://www.dlc.org/ndol_ci.cfm?kaid=85&subid=108&contentid=253475