Kerry's biggest problem: The electoral college

[RageAgainstTheirMachine]

Assuming Kerry is the nominee, there is no doubt that this election will be close. I think Kerry can win the popular vote, but I'm concerned with the electoral college. Will Kerry carry all of Gore's states? Which non-Gore states will he pick up? He needs to carry all the Gore states plus one of the non-Gore states to beat Bush. Please withhold "Kerry sucks; he's gonna lose" responses.

[pmbryant]

1. What Gore states is Kerry likely to have significant trouble in?

Few, if any, I believe. Some may be close, but I suspect Kerry would win all of the states Gore officially won last time.

On the other hand, Kerry has a very good chance to also win New Hampshire, West Virginia, Ohio, and Nevada. Missouri is a possibility. So is Arizona. Arkansas and Louisiana are not out of the question, either. And, of course, one never knows what is going to happen in Florida.

--Peter

[RageAgainstTheirMachine]

5. PA will be tight

We cannot afford to lose PA.

[pmbryant]

6. I don't see us losing Pennsylvania, even if it's close

If Gore won it, so can Kerry.

You're right we can't afford to lose it.

--Peter

[59millionmorons]

21. PA is in the bag

It's over in PA

[edzontar]

61. PA is too close to call in recent polls.

I vote here.

[tryanhas]

16. All of them.

Kerry's not a "LIKEABLE GUY," and in the end it will bite him.

If Kerry gets the nomination, within 2 months, he will be 20% behind Bush, and then you all are going to realize what we have been trying to tell you.

People are only voting for Kerry because they think he "CAN BEAT BUSH," not because they like him.

When they find out that he cannot beat Bush, his support will tumble like a mud house, and Democrats will wonder how stupid they were to nominate John Kerry instead of John Edwards, who is the better general election candidate.

Once the nation gets a sniff of what's inside of that 5 inch thick book of opposition research that the GOP has on John Kerry, they aren't going to want any piece of John Kerry, and that includes the people in the "BLUE STATES," that Al Gore won that last time. And you can best believe that it's not just "POLITICAL STUFF" inside of that book.

Kerry can keep saying, "BRING IT ON," all that he wants. He stole it from Edwards' DNC Winter Meeting last year, anyway. But let me see Kerry stand on RAILROAD TRACKS with an AMTRAK bearing down on him and yell "BRING IT ON" while vowing "TO FIGHT," and see if it does anything to stop that AMTRAK.

He can yell, "BRING IT ON," and vow to fight all that he wants to right now, but it's not going to do any good when Democrats wake up and wonder, "WHAT HAVE I DONE."

John Kerry has no chance of winning a general election.

Zero...

[Adelante]

48. Kerry's not a "LIKEABLE GUY"

Only on DU. Out in the real world, people seem to quite like Kerry, at least enough to vote for him.

[onehandle]

2. Ohio.

Ohio is the game, even without Florida. Ohio has been beaten severely by the chimp.

[rucky]

10. Yep. and Kerry will win it. n/t

[BL_Zebub]

13. But Ohio is also the home of Diebold

and their CEO promised to "deliver" the state to Junior. The exact same language Jebbie used in 2000.

[FreeperSlayer]

3. Gee, and I thought it was going to be...

...Diebold.

[Benhurst]

4. Surely he can pick up West Virginia. ??? n/t

[KC21304]

7. Clark will sew up Arkansas when he accepts the VP spot.

[madmax]

8. Yessssssssssssss!

:hug:

[ArkDem]

15. If you say so

.

[GainesT1958]

9. I'm actually starting to think, more often these days...

That this election may not be that close after all. If things--the economy, Iraq, Dub & Co.'s lying and overall imcompetence--come together in voters' minds--despite Dub's photo-op at Ground Zero in September--Kerry may win this thing by somewhere near the margin that Poppy beat Dukakis (wouldn't the irony of THAT be sweet?:eyes: ). I'm starting to get the feeling that the "fed-up" attitude toward Dub transcends "typical' ideological lines, and regional lines as well.

If these "negatives" of Dub's keep coming together--and if Sen. Kerry remains of the attack--even all that $250 million in attack ads won't be enough for "Chip" Rove to save Dub--and we'll have a shot at bringing in the Senate with us. But, of course, that's a big "IF"--that's getting smaller by the week.

:kick:

B-)

[Nicholas D Wolfwood]

11. Kerry's REAL biggest problem?

The Supreme Court. Watch them find a way to select Bush again.

[rock]

12. Ain't gonna be close

My personal opinion, it'll be worse than Clinton versus the 1st Bush.

[tryanhas]

14. Kerry's big problem is...

...JOHN KERRY.

The more people see Kerry, the less they like him.

HE DOESN'T WEAR WELL, and that's not good news for him if he gets the nomination.

The more people see Edwards, the more they generally like him. That's why he gradually builds support in states, so Terry McAuliffe screwed the democrats this year by speeding up the process which is advantageous to a candidate like Kerry, who doesn't wear well because people would have voted for him before they get sick and tired of seeing him.

It's a disadvantage to Edwards who is LESS WELL-KNOWN, and who gradually builds support, SOLID SUPPORT, whereas Kerry is riding on a wave of "MYTHICAL ELECTABILITY" and voters don't really like him, they just DISLIKE HIM LESS than they dislike Bush.

[KittyWampus]

17. The More People Would Get To Know Edwards The More They'll See

what a phony he is.

People don't like politicians who run for Senate PURELY as a stepping stone towards being President just like they don't like Politicians running for School Board as a way to become Town Supervisor.

[tryanhas]

25. Phony???

Thanks for pointing out how big of a phony JOHN KERRY IS.

Mr. Skull and Bones and the boys in Skull and Bones, INCLUDING GEORGE W. BUSH, have an office, or should I say, "A TOMB POOL" going.

The boys in the Secret society are making bets to see which one of their boys, John Kerry or George W. Bush, will win the fluke election that they and their special interests are creating through the media and their millions.

And you all are falling for it hook, line and sinker.

John Edwards is the realest candidate running.

Kerry is one of the fakest.

Everything that he says is stolen from other candidates (BRING IT ON - Edwards said that at the DNC winter meeting last year).

Kerry has flip floped more than a pancake.

And on top of that, he and Skull and Bones OWN the very special interests that he is supposedly against.

Whatever.

Phony!?

There isn't a bigger phony on the planet than JOHN "STEVE FORBES" KERRY!

[kiahzero]

55. That's funny....

I thought Skull and Bones was uber-secret? Did you somehow penetrate their perimeter, get past their carnivorous guard dogs, over the moat, through the state-of-the-art alarm system, into the vault, and past the brainwashed private militia that resides under Harvard?

Oh no! I've said too much!

[tryanhas]

65. Well, in order to penetrate it, you first need to know where it is...

...it "YALE" not Harvard.

[sangha]

18. "The more people see Kerry, the less they like him."

Is that why they're voting for him? They like him less?

[59millionmorons]

22. TEEHEE

I always vote for the guy I dont like.

[tryanhas]

26. Yes.

They are voting for him because "THEY DISLIKE HIM LESS THAN THEY DISLIKE BUSH," and they think, although they are wrong, that he can beat Bush.

Kerry's entire rise is based on the belief that he, "CAN BEAT BUSH," although he can't.

Once people learn that he in fact can't beat Bush, he has nothing else going for him.

[59millionmorons]

30. Have you been talking to God?

I was reading today that God contacted Pat Robertson. Has God contacted you and told you Kerry can't win? Oh yes, all those polls that have Kerry winning the general election, I guess they are fake. Good grief.

[Atlant]

52. They've been told (by the Republican Media) that he's "electable". (NT)

[59millionmorons]

20. Nice talking point

Did you see that on CNN or Fox?

[tryanhas]

27. Actually no.

Because if I was watching CNN or Fox News, they would be talking about how Kerry has already won the nomination, and how Edwards should just give up and go home, duh.

So based on the posts on this board, I would say that you all watch CNN, FOX News, AND MSNBC a lot more than I do, duh.

[Dookus]

32. 18 for 20

He seems be wearing just fine.

[59millionmorons]

19. Nope Kerry 304 Bush 234, Take it to the bank

Along with the Gore states Kerry will take OH,NH,NV,WV.

[Anaxamander]

24. Goddamn it, I hope you're right! (nt)

[tryanhas]

28. Kerry doesn't have a prayer in a general election

And the fact that the DNC sped up the process to get Kerry the nomination quickly will be his undoing, because that means that people will have A LONG TIME to get to know more about him during the general election campaign than they normally would, and they aren't going to be able to stand what they see.

Oh, yeah.

The establishment planned for Kerry to be the nominee YEARS AGO!

That's why the convention is in his home state.

[59millionmorons]

29. Oh another one of those

My guy didnt win so I'm going to trash the winner.

[tryanhas]

58. Actually, quite the opposite.

I was TRASHING JOHN "ME AND BUSH ARE ON THE SAME SKULL AND BONES TEAM" KERRY back in October of 2003 before anyone voted.

I couldn't stand Kerry then, and I hate him even more now.

A fluke election between two bonesmen?

I will discourage as many people as I can from voting, and you can count on it...

[Leilani]

46. That would be terrific

I've been playing around with the electoral map...

The states you list look like good ones. I would add Arkansas & Louisiana as possibilities.

I saw McCain on TV last nite, & he said depending on events, Arizona could be in play.

[59millionmorons]

53. Yup

I considered those but i didnt want to get greedy. I was even nice enought to give Bush Florida, although I think we can take it too.

[Stuckinthebush]

47. Demdem is right...

Also, if Kerry puts Edwards or Cleland on the ticket, he has a chance of getting NC or even GA. Right now, there are polls showing GA in a statistical dead heat. I know, I know...it's a dream, but it could happen.

[BruinAlum]

23. Strategy needs to be all states won by 5% or less last time, Red or Blue

All those states are either swing states or contestible this time.

[kodi]

31. if he holds the Gore states of 2000 & picks up Missouri, he wins

which is why I hope he selects Gephardt as VP. Gephardt will deliver Missouri for the Dems.

Gephardt will solidify states with high union households such as Pennsylvania, Michigan, Wisconsin, Minnesota, perhaps Iowa, West Virginia and maybe even capture Ohio...remember Gore stopped campaigning there weeks before the election and Gore lost the state by only a few points.

i don't see New Hampshire going for Bush this year, and hotly contested New Mexico again should go for the Dems with the help of Bill Richardson in the governor's mansion there.

Even in the Far Northwest, I don't see Bush beating a Dem in Oregon and Washington, although it will be close in each state.

As to Florida: if Graham campaigns for the democratic ticket there, the Dems might actually win there dispite the Bush crime family's tactics.

[Cuban_Liberal]

36. What about the census changes/reapportionment?

Are you sure we didn't lose a number of electoral votes to 'red' states?

[kodi]

38. go see for yourself

.

[Cuban_Liberal]

45. Go WHERE?

:shrug:

[Name removed]

49. Deleted message

Message removed by moderator. Click here to review the message board rules.

[edzontar]

33. Kerry sucks. He's gonna lose.

nt.

[Adelante]

50. I don't agree

But succinct, edzontar. :7

[edzontar]

60. He kinda asked for it.

nt.

[goobergunch]

63. LOL!

:evilgrin:

This post has been brought to you 100% free of hate mail or death threats.

[Castilleja]

34. Kerry is less than palatable, he likely won't prevail.

N/T

[Nashyra]

39. I think Kerry will pick up Ohio

and Nevada and I don't see him losing any states that Gore won, if and I say if even though I would like to see it there is a pretty good chance Clark could take AR if he is the VP. As far as likeability goes alot of people that I know who voted for the * say he seems like a nice guy but that just does not cut it for a president, just like Clark said at the begining of his campaign when he threw out that bone about the * being a nice guy and all overcoming a battle with the bottle but it does not make him a good leader.

[edzontar]

43. PA is within one point in recent polls.

Bush has visited the state over 30 times.

It is a real concern here.

[Cheswick2.0]

35. Kerry bores electorate... they sleep through election day....bush wins

and that's no threat.

[edzontar]

37. Maybe we need some sort of "Stop Kerry Movement"?

Before it is too late.

[RageAgainstTheirMachine]

41. I'm working to elect a Democrat to the White House.

Are you?

[edzontar]

42. I compliment you on your work so far.

It has made quite an impact here, as you probably know.

I live in PA, by the way, where the latest polls are neck and neck.

[RageAgainstTheirMachine]

44. why thank you

Your activism has also reaped great rewards for our party and our nation.

[edzontar]

62. I have worked in campaigns for 32-34 years.

Even before I could vote, actually.

Worked (grassroots) for E, McCarthy, McGovern, Carter, Mondale, Clinton, Gore.

Plus Ted Kennedy AND John Kerry in Mass for Senate.

Just in case you wanted to know,

[SonofMass]

54. But you have a

republican in your sig line.

[phillybri]

40. 2000+Missouri, Ohio, or Arizona...Game Set Match....

Bank on it...

[Atlant]

51. "Kerry bores; He's gonna lose"

Is THAT better? Because it's likely to be the truth.

Atlant

[exotrip]

57. Yep, that is how it will happen

"That John Kerry sure is a great canidate. He has a plan to create jobs, shore up our economy, provide equal rights for all, create a sane foreign policy, etc. But he is too boring to be President." - Voters

[mzmolly]

56. Well then... perhaps it's time for the "Stop Kerry" movement? oops...

I missed post # 37.

hmmmm, Great minds think alike Edzontar... ;)

:evilgrin:

[flaminbats]

59. The biggest solution...

abolishing the Selectoral College.

But really who cares? We have time to debate a Constitutional Amendment which destroys our freedom of religion and the institution of marriage in America. We have time to debate an Amendment to outlaw the proper disposal of worn-out American flags. But when it comes to discussing an Amendment so that the American people can elect their President.."GO TO HELL YA FUCKIN' COMMIE!"

[absyntheNsugar]

64. Nevada will go Blue

Mark my words