Congrats Hil supporters. I think she may ultimately win with the help of Edwards. Here is why...

[skipos]

Edwards sounds like he will stay in to get his 15% in every state. S Carolina was only state Edwards won in 2004, with 45% of the vote. He is on course to get about 15% there now. And even if the polls blow ass as they often do, and he doubles that, he will still come in 3rd or very close to it. From what I have read, and from my personal experiences, I have always felt that Edwards voters, if they had to make the choice, would go more for Obama than Clinton. This exit poll seems to back up my theory.

of the 32% of voters who "strongly approve" of Edwards - 48% voted for Edwards, 29% Obama, 18% Clinton -
of the 49% of voters who "strongly approve" of Obama - 66% voted Obama, 17% Clinton, 12% Edwards -
of the 41% of voters who "strongly approve" of Clinton - 81% voted Clinton, 11% Obama, 5% Edwards -

In a close election, these numbers *can* make a difference in my opinion
12% of people who really like Obama are still voting for Edwards
5% of people who really like Clinton are voting for Edwards
If Edwards vote goes 1/3rd to Clinton, 2/3rds to Obama, Obama would have won tonight by 4-5%

And even if you think my theory is wrong, these exit poll results are still interesting.

Full disclosure: I like Edwards and Obama for the nom. Hillary, not so much.

[Little Star]

1. I have been Edwards since he ran in 2004 and I

went Hillary because I found him to immature with those junk yard dog attacks. When they started two-fering her at the debates it was over for me. I always felt that all of their policies were very similar, so that made it very easy to stand beside her woman-hood. Plus she had experience and that does matter to some people. I want the first woman president, I want women to make history.

[Jane Austin]

2. I'd feel a lot better about Hillary if she weren't

so influenced by Bill and all his sleazy advisors and DLCers.

[Little Star]

9. I think we might see less of Bill now unless the gang bang starts..

again.

[Jane Austin]

10. Agreed, but that's just cosmetic.

He'll have the same influence over her, and it will be his advisors and corporate connections that will be so close to her.

[usregimechange]

3. That's what I tried to say earlier explaining why I switch to Obama tonight

http://www.barackobama.com">

[jackson_dem]

4. The great, inspiring, JFK the second coming can't win without forcing Edwards to quit?

Fuck Obama. If he cared so much about the unity of the precious anti-Clinton vote he wouldn't have run at the last moment in the first place and it would have been Edwards versus Hillary. He isn't owed anything. He has to earn the presidency. Edwards has as much right to run as him, and is only seven delegates behind him.

[skipos]

6. Take your bile somewhere else please.

We can talk about this without being insulting.

[eugeneliberal]

5. Even more complicated than that

OK, it seems I have to preface with you I support...so it's Edwards, but softly. Anyway, I agree with your analysis, but NH also allowed independents to get either a democratic or repug ballot (not all states allow indy voters to participate). Anyway, I saw a stat on CNN, they flashed it and I saw no discussion, and they never ran it again in the 2 hours I watched. The stat showed Hilary winning very soundly among registered democrats and Obama winning just as handily among indys voting democratic ballots.

What does this mean? I'm not sure, but it does suggest that Obama's support is stronger among those outside the two party system, i.e., the disenfranchised typical non-voters. This could be great in the general election. On the other hand, it shows just how strong Hil's organization really is, and in upcoming primaries where the parties exert more control, she could really dominate.

Anyone know how many states are like Oregon (indys can't get either demo or repug ballots here)? I think it could be a huge factor in future results. It might even show Edwards moving much closer to Obama in states without indy votes.

[Marrah_G]

7. Not sure about that: I am an Edwards supporter who has Clinton as my second choice

[skipos]

8. I never said all Edwards voters would go to Obama, just @ 2/3rds

And these exit polls seem to back that up. I am sure you could find a Kucinich supporter who has Hillary as his 2nd choice around here somewhere.