Bradley Effect?

[TeamJordan23]

I cannot understand how the polls could be so wrong. Even with Hillary crying, I don't think it could have swayed it that much.

Does anyone think the Bradley Effect occured here?

[Colobo]

1. I don't know what it was, but we are in trouble.

[cali]

10. No we're not, Katz

It's hardly Barack's fault that the polls were so wrong. He ran a terrific and competitive race in NH, and he's only 2% back.
Don't be disheartened. It's neck and neck. Hell, he won by a bigger margin in Iowa than she did in NH.

[Colobo]

15. Forget it, the Clintons will win NV now, the momentum will be on their side

blacks in SC will rally for her and good-bye Barack Obama. We needed to solidify our position in NH, and we could not.

Obama's candidacy had a factor we needed to deal with: Can a black man win factor? An early loss would mean "No". That's how it will be read now.

[cali]

19. You're wrong. This is ridiculous

He came within two points. He'll do well in NV and win SC. I can't believe you're talking this way. Buck up!

[Colobo]

24. I know what's coming, cali...

I wish it could be other way... but it won't be... it won't...

[Bullet1987]

27. Katz, we have 11 days before NV

and a debate in between. Anything can still happen, you'll get over it.

[question everything]

18. Oh come on!

So you won one and lost one. There are 48 more states. Don't you think that the voters there have a right to choose from a wide roster?

I really wish that Biden and Dodd stayed.

[grantcart]

29. In trouble?

Obama is in a great position you have to be stronger man. Besides having a strong contest is better for Obama in the long run it will make him a better candidate and draw more interest in him.

[RL3AO]

2. Bradley effect doesn't explain 15%.

[EffieBlack]

3. I don't think so

This was a very complicated race with lots of factors that played into the vote. While there may have been a few people who decided at the last minute not to vote for him because of race, there were lots of other things that affected this outcome.

[AlCzervik]

4. how many people were polled? More dems than reps voted--yes? was that

taken into account in the polling?

[Texas_Kat]

5. Shouldn't have pissed off the female baby-boomers

we vote

[1corona4u]

12. THANK YOU!!!!

BIG ISSUE for me too!!!!

[Renew Deal]

6. I don't think so.

I really don't believe it. It was Hillary getting beat up.

[Jersey Devil]

7. No, Bullshit Effect

Seriously, NH is one of those weird states where people can cross over and vote in the other party's primary and even independents can vote in party primaries. Probably they just polled the wrong people and people who they didn't expect to vote in the Democratic primary turned up and voted. I think it's that simple.

[SaveElmer]

8. Racism is a pretty serious charge without evidence...

I know it is the talking heads making it not you...

There is no evidence New Hampshirites are racist...

I simply think Hillary reminded voters in the last day or two, why they liked her in the first place!!!

[TeamJordan23]

17. Racism is prevalent in nearby Mass.

This comes from personal experience.

[SaveElmer]

20. Do you really think the 14% of Democrats that said they would vote for Obama...

But didn't were racist..? There simply is no evidence for it...

It is much more likely that either the polling models were off or Hillary simply had a very good run since the last debate and reminded New Hampshire voters why they liked he in the first place...

[jackson_dem]

25. The polls were accurate for the Republican race

I don't think race explains all of the 14% but it played a role and since the race was so close was dispositive.

[cali]

21. Racism exists everywhere, but for pete's sake, MA has an AA

Governor. Racism exists in MA but it certainly doesn't dominate the culture- obviously.

[IndianaJones]

9. I've seen the Bradley/Wilder effect firsthand in VA. Its real. nt.

[robbedvoter]

11. 57% angry women effect - hell hath no fury effect - we're fed up effect

http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=show_mesg&forum=132&topic_id=4004905&mesg_id=4004905
Bradley who?

[RoadRage]

13. Sorry.. newbie.. what is the "Bradly" effect? NT

[Nederland]

28. Here you go

To sum up, it's when black candidates don't do as well as the pre-polling indicated they would.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Bradley_effect

[dsc]

14. truth be known this was a real fear of mine in regards to his electability

Polls are nearly always off, and nearly always overestimate the African American candidates vote. I was hoping it wasn't true since I thought he was a shoo in. This has to worry us since if he is the nominee we need to know the polls are accurate.

[angee_is_mad]

16. It did

to some degree. The polls could not be that wrong, or that off because of a few tears and bad photos.

[wake.up.america]

22. Is there any chance GOPers crosssed the line for Hillary? I believe the GOP...

thinks Hillary would be easier to beat in November.

[angee_is_mad]

26. ummmmm

that's interesting, but no. I think she got the sympahty and the bias votes.

[jackson_dem]

23. The Republican polling was accurate

The same polls were accurate when it came to McCain (white) and Romney (white) but mysteriously very wrong when it came to Hillary (white) and Obama (black). Funny how the polls all got Edwards right too...