Thoughts & "If I'm the campaign manager..."

[origin1286]

Quick thoughts: This goes to show you never count anyone out. Don't listen to the polls. Don't listen to the media. If you're not a part of it all you can do is sit back and wait. You just never know.

Obama destroys Hillary in a 2 person race. This much is clear. Edwards voters would break for Obama and no state would be close.

In a 3 person race, Obama and Edwards split the anti-Hillary vote. Hillary *needs* Edwards in the race. Obama *needs* Edwards out of the race.

Do not be surprised to hear whispers of wheeling and dealing behind the scenes. Perhaps if Obama offers Edwards the VP spot, Edwards would consider dropping out. But that takes a risk with the general election because an Obama/Edwards ticket would get railed for lack of experience.



What this means for Clinton

You're now the front runner, for whatever that's worth. You must maintain this momentum at least through Nevada. I still think you gets blown out in South Carolina. If you loses Nevada and South Carolina, you're is back to being on the ropes. Nevada is now a key state.



What this means for Obama

You only lost by 2%. Only 6,000 votes. I don't think you change anything. Get a little more specific on the trail but don't lose what's made you great. You have to joke this loss off. The loss runs the risk of snowballing and you could lose the crowds if they start thinking of you as a loser. Take it like a good sport - smiles, laughs, etc. "Thanks for voting tonight New Hampshire. The beautiful thing is we got out the vote. Voters are ready to move on from this administration and they're coming out in droves." Remember this is Clinton's turf. Just keep on trucking.




If I'm Obama's campaign manager


I don't change much. Lay low in the media a bit and let them fawn over Clinton. Head right to Nevada and try to secure the Culinary Workers endorsement. Nevada is key. Obama probably has a big buffer zone in South Carolina and should still be the favorite. Win Nevada, he's back to the top.

The biggest thing I try to do - whether through deals or what - is GET EDWARDS OUT OF THE RACE. Edwards is spoiling this for Obama. Not to put down Edwards (I know spoiling is such a negative term). Hypothetically if Edwards had dropped out after Iowa, you can reasonably assume assume Obama wins tonight 52-41 or thereabouts. The majority of Edwards supporters will break for Obama. The longer Edwards is in the race, the longer the vote gets split, and the more states you see like this (with the top 2 being extremely close but Clinton squeaking it out). If Edwards drops, Obama routs Clinton from here on out.




If I'm Edwards' campaign

I seriously consider dropping. I've been more than doubled up by 2nd place. Not only that, my strategy of sucking up to Obama to get Clinton out of the race has backfired. This guarantees that all 3 candidates will be in the race until Super Tuesday. I'm nowhere close in most polls. It comes down to this:

If I stay in, I still have that tiny hope of winning the white house, but I could also be delivering it to Clinton.

If I drop out, I am pretty much done as a presidential candidate (the loser stigma), but I hand the white house to Obama and also might put myself in the driver's seat for VP.

It comes down to how much I truly want an agent of change in the white house vs how good my odds are of winning.

It's a tough choice. I don't presume to know the answer as an outsider. I perhaps wait until after South Carolina, but that could be too late and Hillary could be running away with the nomination.

[origin1286]

1. Oh but

Congratulations to Hillary.

I want to stress this again:

Obama needs Edwards out of the race. Obama gets Edwards out, Obama becomes our nominee easily.

Hillary needs Edwards in the race. Edwards stays in the race, you'll see more states like this (where Hillary would have been slaughtered in a 2 person but Edwards siphoned just enough...)

Do not be surprised to hear rumors of behind the scenes wheeling and dealing.

I have a hunch that Obama's people will be on the phone with Edwards' people constantly and it might culminate in Obama promising Edwards the VP spot if he gets the nomination.

Right now, Nevada is key. Obama should still win South Carolina handily. If Obama takes Nevada and SC, Hillary is back against the ropes. If Obama loses Nevada, Hillary becomes all but inevitable.