Some drama does the race good

[George_Bonanza]

The ideal scenario for Obama, IMHO, would've been a narrow victory over Clinton in New Hampshire, just enough so that people could claim that Hillary was back but Obama was still in control. Well, turns out that he'd be on the flip side of that scenario, but nevertheless, I actually like this result (and I'm a big Obama supporter).

Firstly, democracy does not thrive on media-anointed successions. As inspirational as Obama is, was he, dare I say, becoming boring and much too establishment after Iowa? If he was gifted the nomination after only two states, then he would've become the exact opposite of what he embodied (change, discussion, etc.), and he might've been Howard Deaned and cast into unfamiliar territory as the supposed leader. It would've readied the inevitable Republican charge at him, and the enthusiastic support that welled for him when he was the fresh face for change might've dwindled, as party officials elbowed the college students out of the way in the Barack conga line. I have a feeling that despite all the attention on Hillary's tears or whatnot, the real motivation for NH was to not duplicate the results of Iowa. Supporters of Clinton were more dedicated to refusing Iowa the right to anoint the nominee than Obama supporters were to continuing the royal procession. So hats off to the Clinton supporters and those dedicated to making the primary season mean more than just Iowa + NH.

Secondly, Obama won big in Iowa because that was essentially a three-way race among him, Clinton, and Edwards. In contrast, New Hampshire's primary had to factor in the small but significant votes for people like Kucinich, Richardson, and whoever else is still in the race. What Iowa has told us is that in a runoff election, Obama will win big among Democrats. In other words, while he and Clinton have about the same number of "first choice" supporters, Obama does way better as an alternative candidate. So when everybody else, including Edwards, drops out, Obama can expect to get a huge bump in his numbers. I think we already knew that Hillary Clinton did better among established Democrats, so her winning NH by a mere 3% is not a revelation (though it might be to those who believed the media frenzy about post-Iowa Obama). What I'm really interested in is when the rest of the field drops out, where does that support go to? My money's firmly on Obama. There's a reason why Edwards ganged up on Hillary, and that's because he knows that his supporters don't like her, and they definitely wouldn't tolerate him taking on Obama.

I'm happy for Hillary. She's been through so much and done so much that she deserves her time in the sun. I didn't care much for John Kerry's avalanche in 2004, so I'm looking forward to a tight race all the way up to the convention.

[Harper_is_Bush]

1. "she deserves her time in the sun"

She could very well win this thing, nevermind "time in the sun"!