Why Obama has pulled ahead.

[Bread and Circus]

Obama is hands down the best speaker of all the candidates at this point.

Let's be real, the policies and actions of nearly all the Democratic candidates are going to be very similar. Hell, they often consult the same people when writing things like health plans, etc.

Furthermore, their past "records" are all about equally marred with political expediency and pandering to the whim of the moment.

Also, it's not mysogyny to dislike Hillary. Nor is it racist to not like Obama.

Even though I absolutely loathe (probably unjustifiably but it's there all the same) Hillary Clinton, she would probably make a fine President.

Even though I love John Edward's populist message but worry about his veracity, he would probably make a fine President.

Even though Obama seems to have some inconsistencies with what he says and some past votes (or avoidance of some votes), he would probably make a fine President.

They are all good, and they all have warts. It's six in one and half a dozen in the other.

However, the one thing that Obama has over all the other candidates is his ability to speak. He is great on the stump and great 1 on 1. The guy just oozes confidence, intelligence, and an even temperment.

He has charisma.

He speaks as well as John Edwards looks and he looks even better.

And in a game (politics) where everything is about speaking and charisma, he wins hands down. This is how Reagan and Clinton both won. This is how Obama will win. And unfortunately, despite all his prescient brilliance, it's how Gore lost.

People will say I'm just confirming the fear that Obama is all style and no substance. Not at all. I'm saying that the practical substance of any of the Democratic candidates is about the same, mostly just pragmitic lawyer politician type stuff (of which we've unfortunately had too much). However, Obama has a transecendant quality that Hillary could never have and John Edwards only misses by a small margin.

There's just something large about Obama. Not so Clinton or Edwards. It's charisma, and it's what wins elections.

You can talk issues, records and bullet points on agendas all day long. But people look to a leader not for those things but for the intangibles that Obama has and the other candidates don't.

[jakem]

1. nicely said. K&R

[H2O Man]

2. Interesting.

My oldest son's SO is a student at the local state university. She is big on theater, but not on politics. She says that Senator Obama has a significant advantage, because of his voice and language skills.

[mrreowwr_kittty]

5. He uses the rhythm and cadence of a preacher. It's very compelling.

It's also the reason he doesn't stammer like he often does when speaking extemporaneously. People who stutter don't when they sing, and when Obama is on the stump it's very much like he's singing.

[Critters2]

25. All true. People are often surprised by my preaching.

I have a mild stutter--due to my essential tremor--when I speak one on one. But I've learned to do something closer to singing when preaching. Search committees have noted their concerns about my preaching because I speak haltingly in interviews. But these fears are assuaged once they hear me preach. It's all about technique, and Obama gets this. He's a great orator.

But that's not what I want in a president.

[mrreowwr_kittty]

27. Obama doesn't have everything I want in a President, neither do any of the others

Expect perhaps Kucinich, who I always match 100% with on those online match-your-candidate tests. But he doesn't have a prayer of winning so we're left with the 3 frontrunners and I want someone who can win.

I love John Edwards but he couldn't even win the union households in Iowa! He got 23% of their vote, while both Clinton and Obama got 30%. The man spends the past 3 years practically living in Iowa, assiduously courting the Labor vote. That was the most shocking outcome of the Iowa race, and very telling about Edwards' electability. But that's just my $.02.

http://www.cnn.com/ELECTION/2008/primaries/results/epolls/#val=IADEM

Scroll down to see the union household numbers.

[mrreowwr_kittty]

3. Agree 100%. Now, if Obama can just improve his debate performances....

Let's be honest, it's not his forte. There's nothing wrong with the substance of his statements, but the stammering and the "ahs" are distracting. The candidate I see him doing the worst against in that format is Dog Abuser Romney. Mittens is a fruitloop but he's very smooth and polished in the debates. But on the other hand the Dog Abuser is such a trainwreck in so many other ways that it may not matter.

[davidwparker]

4. I would say that people are so sick of ^ and want more change that what

Hill promises (back to the 90's) that the first two states are choosing Obama..

I disagree that Obama is a better speaker than JE. Obama is generalizes and passes on feel-good vibes. He tends to lack the depth of JE, but it is working for him so far.

[Dawgs]

6. Recommended for positivity.

I'm sick of the hatred on DU today.

[Phoonzang]

7. His speeches are good, but when speaking

off the cuff he tends to be halting and not particularly fluent.

[progressivebydesign]

10. yikes... not so good. We've had 8 years of that already. n/t

[avaistheone1]

14. I dig the sizzle. But where is the steak?

Obama has yet to deliver.

[Bread and Circus]

12. That's not what I've seen in interviews and as for the debates...

I haven't seen enough of those to make a decision.

[Adelante]

8. Interesting analysis

Thanks.

[progressivebydesign]

9. Ack. Charisma got us Bush and Reagan. Voters are dumb. n/t

[Bread and Circus]

11. Voters are people. And people are people. And though the species...

might not be up to your standards, it is what it is.

You can't change millions of years of evolution.

Also, you left Bill Clinton off your list because it's what got him elected too.

[Nederland]

13. Expressing disdain for voters is dumber. n/t

[ginnyinWI]

19. charisma and brains are not mutually exclusive

You can have both, you know, or you can have neither.

I think Obama's got both. And in addition he's got plans and policies--he's not just a lot of talk. Visit his website and take a look at his many pdf files on all of today's national and world problems.

[vee]

22. Voters aren't Dumb,

contrary to the politicians that assume they are.

[robbedvoter]

24. Bush had charisma? tevee said so, but didn't show me none. Anyway, he lost

both elections. You may want to ask John Edwards about one of those occasions.

[laureloak]

15. Careful..You might suffer from a bad case of buyer's remorse!

[grantcart]

16. Continue the Debate

The main reason that Obama has improved so much is that he has had such tough competition. If as normal a leading candidate develops huge momentum and the race is prematurely ended then Obama will sit on the sidelines while the focus will switch to the Republicans.

The best thing for Obama (and all of the top three) is that the campaign continues. As long as it stays positive, which to an almost unparalleled degree it has, the best thing for the party and for the eventual candidate is that the campaign and the debate continue.

[suston96]

17. Why Obama has pulled ahead?

Idolatry. American idolatry. Bundled with the fairy tales of hope and change.

But I really don't have to define it. Just watch the news channels.

[Bread and Circus]

21. It's not an American thing. It's a human nature thing.

There are certain personal qualities that people (aka homo sapiens) look to in a leader, most of them are not practical tangible things either. It's undeniable.

[alcibiades_mystery]

18. Correct

[mtnsnake]

20. Yes, Obama is oozing confidence now, to the point where he's acting cocky

But that's because he's on top right now.

However, when things don't go so well for him, the words don't seem to flow so smoothly.

[robbedvoter]

23. I also think it was his internet savvy in reaching young new voters - my theory

http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=show_mesg&forum=132&topic_id=3993559&mesg_id=3993559

[fightindonkey]

26. To Me, Obama Fumbles When He Speaks, Never Hitting On Anything, Nor Answering A Question

That's problem. I've heard the same comment a million times.

[IronLionZion]

28. Any of these candidates would get the same Dem advisors after winning the nomination

Any of them would ride on the shoulders of the Democratic Party and all its muscle. They will stand on the Democratic platform. In that way, they would basically all have the same or very similar "substance" for the general election.

So, I'll agree that Obama's style helped him and will continue to help him. Charisma does win elections (except for W who has none). That's what it comes down to in modern American politics. Abraham Lincoln could not win today.

[Bread and Circus]

29. I firmly believe W stole his elections, twice.