Thoughts on 2008 Senate Elections?

[cmaff05]

With all the discussion about the New Hampshire primaries, and rightfully so, I'd like to talk about our Senate chances in this election. Having a democrat as president is certainly invaluable to this party, but as we have seen from Republican partisanship and fillbustering over the past year, having the majority of our Senate democratic is very important.

There are 35 out of 100 seats that will go up for election. 23 will be Republican and 12 will be Democratic. This is our golden chance right now. We need 29 of the 35 Senate elections to go to the Democrats. In all likelihood, it won't happen, but if we could get 25 of the 35 to go to our party we would be sitting well going into 2009.

I'm so excited about the possibility that we have to finally end the conversative domination of our country. We need to go out and campaign and finally bring this country into the 21st century.

[MethuenProgressive]

1. We need as many new seats as possible with a Huckabee or McCain as President.

And the way the Democratic Primaries are turning out, that's what we'll end up with.

[BOSSHOG]

3. God Help us

if huckleberry is picking supreme court nominees.

[BOSSHOG]

2. Put Trent Lott's seat in play

Former Dem Governor Ronnie Musgrove has announced he is in. The question we must contend with is when the election will be held. The Governor says in November, the Attorney General says it has to be held in 90 days.

Welcome to DU!

[cmaff05]

5. Any idea

When we will know?

[cmaff05]

8. Oh

And thanks for the welcome to DU. I really enjoy it here!

[BenDavid]

9. I suspect the govenor will win this case and it will make it tougher

for the dem to win. I believe there was a poll conducted by some group hired by the clarion ledger and found Musgrove defeating Wicker by 8 The odds on choice was of course the form atty general Mike Moore. I believe Musgrove can win this seat because he has ran three state wide campaigns and known throught the stte whereas wicker is less known except in the northeast part of Ms.

[BOSSHOG]

10. I was surprised

bar-bore appointed Wicker. lott giving up gop seniority in the Senate then the governor takes Wicker's 14 years of gop seniority out of the house.

[demnan]

4. Mark Warner all the way!

VA will then have two Democratic Senators. This will happen.

[laureloak]

6. I'm praying that a strong Dem opposes Liddy Dole in NC.

[abburdlen]

11. We've got 2!!

I'm rooting for Jim Neal but Kay Hagan is also seeking to unseat Dole, who has a less than 50% favorably rating.

[cali]

7. Virginia and NM look like sure things

Warner and Udall have double digit leads over their repuke opponents. NH is closer but still looks good. Oregon is a possibility. CO with Mark Udall againt Shaeffer looks good. Alaska is another possible. As is Maine. I actually think odds are good that we'll take most of those.

[ProSense]

12. Sixty

The magic number: Sixty

[cmaff05]

13. Yup

You are right, 60 should be the magic number. 23 out of 35 doesn't seem unreasonable. I think we can do it.

[SteppingRazor]

14. It's gonna be a great year. I've got us picking up nine seats and losing one.

Here's how it breaks down:
ALABAMA
Incumbent: Jeff Sessions (R) is running for re-election
Challenger: After Rep. Artur Davis said he wouldn’t run last year, the challenge was left to state Senator Vivian Davis Figures. There probably won’t even be a primary, and if there is, it won’t be particularly notable.
Outlook: Jefferson Beauregard Sessions III (seriously, that’s his name) will crush Figures by at least 20 points, and will do the same to any other would-be Dem. candidate. While there have been some rumblings in the South as to whom to support in the Republican presidential primary, with none of the candidates looking too good, that discontent doesn’t transfer to a guy like Sessions, whose approval ratings have hovered in the high 50s/low 60s for pretty much ever. (STAYS GOP)

ALASKA
Incumbent: Ted Stevens (R) is running for re-election
Challenger: Probably Anchorage mayor Mark Begich. Other names have been tossed about, including state house minority leader Ethan Berkowitz and former governor Tony Knowles, but Begich apparently has the backing of the DSCC.
Outlook: The Cook Report, Congressional Quarterly and all the other prognosticators have this as a likely GOP pickup, but I think they’re underestimating the loathing with which many Alaskan GOP voters greet Ted Stevens after the IRS raid. That raid could not have come at a worse time. Given the pace of your typical federal investigation, charges should be forthcoming just in time for next year’s elections. I’d say it’s a tossup, but I hate weaseling out that way. Instead, I’m assuming that charges are filed, and Stevens, the longest serving Republican in the Senate, goes down in ignominy. (SWITCHES TO DEM)

ARKANSAS
Incumbent: Mark Pryor (D) is running for re-election
Challenger: The initial hope of the GOP faithful was that Huckabee’s presidential run would go down in flames early, allowing him to start a campaign against Pryor. But of course, Huckabee is now in the top tier. He’s in the presidential campaign until the convention. That leaves former Rep. Asa Hutchinson.
Outlook: Hutchinson lost the governor’s race in Arkansas in 2006 even with a Green Party candidate running as a potential spoiler for Democrat Mike Beebe. In short, this is Pryor’s to lose. (STAYS DEM)

COLORADO
Incumbent: Wayne Allard (R) is retiring
Challenger: With Allard out, and after a slew of potential GOP candidates including everyone from Tom Tancredo to John Elway said they wouldn’t run, this comes down to former Republican Rep. Bob Schaffer vs. Democratic Rep. Mark Udall.
Outlook: Schaffer couldn’t even beat brewing magnate Pete Coors in the 2006 GOP senatorial primary. Coors, of course, went on to get smacked around by Democrat Ken Salazar. So, while the polls have this race in the single digits, count on a Democratic win. (SWITCHES TO DEM)

DELAWARE
Incumbent: Joe Biden (D) is simultaneously running for president and re-election
Challenger: None yet.
Outlook: Now that Biden’s presidential run is over, he’ll skate through the general election to another term in the Senate. (STAYS DEM)

GEORGIA
Incumbent: Saxby Chambliss (R) is running for re-election
Challenger: After winning a primary against investigative reporter Dale Cardwell, DeKalb County CEO Vernon Jones will run against Chambliss.
Outlook: Much as I loathe Chambliss after what he did to Max Cleland to win his seat, Jones stands little chance against the man. Polls have Jones losing in high double digits, and the gap has only widened. (STAYS GOP)

IDAHO
Incumbent: Larry Craig (R) is retiring. Or not. Whatever.
Challenger: We’ll soon see a free-for-all as potential GOP candidates rush to fill the gap in this blood-red state. If Craig drops out early, allowing Gov. Butch Otter to name a replacement (likely Lt. Gov. Jim Risch), that candidate would have a huge advantage. In any case, the GOP candidate will face perennial Idaho Dem. Candidate Larry LaRocco in the general election.
Outlook: The GOP could put up a ham sandwich and win in Idaho. Polls taken back in September have almost every Republican in statewide office in Idaho beating LaRocco in a senate race if they choose to run. (STAYS GOP)

ILLINOIS
Incumbent: Dick Durbin (D) is running for re-election
Challenger: Some half a dozen potential GOP candidates have sprung up, but all of them are previous losers in other contests, and none have won a major election. Perhaps the most likely to pull off the primary win is Jim Rowe, but only because his defeat in 2006 makes him a more-recognizable name.
Outlook: Durbin should wrap this one up nicely, (STAYS DEM)

IOWA
Incumbent: Tom Harkin (D) is running for re-election
Challenger: A couple of nobodies have declared their candidacies (Steve Rathje chief among them), but a bona fide candidate has not yet declared. Rep. Tim Latham may change all that. If he does get in, he’ll be a shoe-in to win the primary.
Outlook: Whoever wins the primary is immaterial. Harkin can’t lose, especially after 2006, when Iowa turned as blue as the tears of losing GOP candidates. (STAYS DEM)

KANSAS
Incumbent: Pat Roberts (R) is running for re-election
Challenger: Roberts runs unopposed.
Outlook: Even popular Democratic Gov. Kathleen Sebelius would have a tough time here, though she would make it a close race. As it stands, though, Roberts should coast. (STAYS GOP)

KENTUCKY
Incumbent: Mitch McConnell (R) is running for re-election
Challenger: So far, the only declared candidate is state attorney general Greg Stumbo, but a whole laundry list of Dems have signaled a potential candidacy. Most noteworthy among them is Rep. Ben Chandler, who actually beat McConnell in some early polls.
Outlook: If Chandler runs, he’ll win the primary, and McConnell is in for a race. If Stumbo goes unopposed into the general, he’ll probably get beat pretty bad. Either way, McConnell should pull off a re-election (STAYS GOP)

LOUISIANA
Incumbent: Mary Landrieu (D) is running for re-election
Challenger: Pretty much every Republican Landrieu has ever defeated to get where she is today is coming back from the grave to run against her. Her 2002 rival Suzanne Terrell will run, as will 1996 opponent Woody Jenkins. But they’ll all get beat in the primary by John Kennedy, who switched to the GOP in August in order to run against Landrieu.
Outlook: It’s tough to admit, but I can’t see how Landrieu wins this. The strong Democratic vote in New Orleans has still not returned in the aftermath of Hurricane Katrina, and outside of New Orleans, Louisiana has turned more and more red over the last several election cycles, with Bush winning easily here in 2004, the same year the state elected a Republican senator. The peccadilloes of said senator, David “John” Vitter, won’t be enough to turn out a hostile anti-GOP vote. (SWITCHES TO GOP)

MAINE
Incumbent: Susan Collins (R) is running for re-election
Challenger: The Dem. Challenger will almost certainly be Rep. Tom Allen.
Outlook: The Rothenberg Political Report lists Collins as vulnerable, but I don’t think so. She’s hugely popular, and some polls have her winning in double digits. That said, she’s ripe for a fall. She’s now campaigning for her third term after promising to serve only two. Allen simply has to play the Lincoln Chaffee Gambit – sure, Susan Collins is a sweet lady and all, but do you really want another Republican in the Senate? If he plays it right, Allen is in. (SWITCHES TO DEM)

MASSACHUSETTS
Incumbent: John Kerry (D) is running for re-election
Challenger: Former congressional candidate Jeff Beatty has declared, and there’s a long list of potential candidates, but come on now. This is Massachusetts, for God’s sake.
Outlook: Massachusetts hasn’t elected a Republican senator in over three decades. Kerry coasts. (STAYS DEM)

MICHIGAN
Incumbent: Carl Levin (D) is running for re-election
Challenger: Probably Levin’s 2002 opponent, Andrew Raczkowski.
Outlook: The fact that the GOP can’t drum up anything better than last year’s loser should tell you something. (STAYS DEM)

MINNESOTA
Incumbent: Norm Coleman (R) is running for re-election
Challenger: Sensing blood in the water, a motley crew of DFL Party candidates has risen to challenge Coleman, a Republican senator in a decidedly blue state. Hell, there’s been so many potential Dem. candidates that a couple have already dropped out. The primary will likely come down to lawyer Mike Ciresi and that one guy with the glasses who used to work on SNL. On name recognition alone, Al Franken should pull off the primary.
Outlook: The polls have had Coleman winning by a handful of points for months now – don’t you believe it. While Coleman has been ahead in the polls, his lead has been slowly shrinking. By the time the general election rolls around, Mr. Franken will be ahead by a dozen points. … I’m sorry, did I say “Mr. Franken?” I meant “Sen. Franken.” (SWITCHES TO DEM)

MISSISSIPPI
Incumbent: Thad Cochran (R) is running for re-election
Challenger: Maybe Trent Lott’s 2006 rival Erik Fleming?
Outlook: With a brand new Mississippi senator running in the wake of Trent Lott’s retirement, the best possible Democratic challenger is in that race. Chochran will coast. (STAYS GOP)

MISSISSIPPI (yes, again)
Incumbent: Roger Wicker (R) is kinda running for re-election
Challenger: Former governor Ronnie Musgrove
Outlook: After Trent Lott shamelessly resigned his seat so that he could skirt new lobbying laws and start his new career immediately rather than having to wait a while, Wicker gained this post. This one should be war, despite Mississippi’s well-known predilection for going GOP in presidential elections, because statewide office is largely Democratic – the Dems control both houses in the state legislature. This one’s a nailbiter, and it probably comes down to who wins the presidential nominations. I’m guessing it will be Obama, which turns out a huge black vote, which ends the Wicker senatorial career before it begins. (SWITCHES TO DEM)

MONTANA
Incumbent: Max Baucus (D) is running for re-election
Challenger: Baucus will face former House Majority Leader Mike Lange, whose last moment of fame occurred when he ripped into a bizarre, obscenity-laced tired against popular Gov. Brian Schweitzer.
Outlook: Baucus was already pretty safe, but with competition like this, all he has to do is run a commercial featuring Lange’s infamous press conference and the race is over. (STAYS DEM)

NEBRASKA
Incumbent: Chuck Hagel (R) is retiring
Challenger: A slew of candidates have announced on either side, but the likely candidates are former Gov. and current U.S. Secretary of Agriculture Mike Johanns for the GOP and former Sen. Bob Kerrey for the Dems.
Outlook: Kerrey’s days as a politician are behind him, especially in heavily conservative Nebraska. Before he announced his retirement, some polls showed incumbent Hagel losing to a more-conservative candidate in the GOP primary. There’s little room for a Democrat to maneuver here. (STAYS GOP)

NEW HAMPSHIRE
Incumbent: John Sununu (R) is running for re-election
Challenger: Likely challenger is 2002 opponent Jeanne Shaheen.
Outlook: The only reason Sununu is even in office is because of the phone bank scandal. Most New Hampshire voters know this, and they’ll vote accordingly. (SWITCHES TO DEM)

NEW JERSEY
Incumbent: Frank Lautenberg (D) is running for re-election
Challenger: 2006 candidate Tom Kean Jr. is likely to return. In fact, the only potential GOP rival who could beat Kean in the primary is Christine Todd Whitman – her break with the Bush administration way back in 2003 (and subsequent pro-centrist book “It’s My Party Too”) might make her a viable candidate to moderate Republicans fed up with Bush but unwilling to move to the D list.
Outlook: Lautenberg should easily beat Kean, but Whitman could prove a real challenge. Even if Whitman runs, though, Lautenberg is the likely winner. (STAYS DEM)

NEW MEXICO
Incumbent: Pete Domenici (R) is retiring
Challenger: Democrats Jim Hannan and Don Wiviott were planning runs against an incumbent Domenici, but with him out, big-gun Tom Udall stepped into the race. The primary’s over before it began, if the other two haven’t dropped out already. The GOP primary, however, will be a war between GOP Reps Heather Wilson and Steve Pearce. Wilson will likely pull it off in the end.
Outlook: The US Attorney scandal didn’t hit Domenici as hard as I thought it would, but brain disease did what scandal couldn’t. After an easy Dem. primary and a tough GOP one, Udall should coast. (SWITCHES TO DEM)

NORTH CAROLINA
Incumbent: Elizabeth Dole (R) is running for re-election
Challenger: With Gov. Mike Easley and Rep. Brad Miller both out, the candidate is likely state senator Kay Hagan.
Outlook: Might have been different with an Easley run, but as it stands, it’s Dole by a mile. (STAYS GOP)

OKLAHOMA
Incumbent: James Inhofe (R) is running for re-election
Challenger: State Senator Andrew Rice
Outlook: Rice doesn’t have a chance. This is Oklahoma, and Inhofe’s bizarre views on global warming will only help him here. (STAYS GOP)

OREGON
Incumbent: Gordon Smith (R) is running for re-election
Challenger: After a primary against activist Steve Novick, Oregon’s speaker of the house, Jeff Merkley, will face Smith.
Outlook: Smith’s approval ratings have been consistently falling, while his disapprovals swing upward. His attempts to grow more and more moderate, even liberal, will not help him. Voters won’t vote for a fake Democrat when they can have the real thing. Gordon Smith is the Lincoln Chafee of this race. (SWITCHES TO DEM)

RHODE ISLAND
Incumbent: Jack Reed (D) is running for re-election
Challenger: None yet.
Outlook: Reed by a mile. (STAYS DEM)

SOUTH CAROLINA
Incumbent: Lindsey Graham (R) is running for re-election
Challenger: None yet.
Outlook: South Carolina is conservative. (How conservative is it?!) It’s so conservative that right-wing tool Lindsey Graham is being challenged in the GOP primary by people running to his right! That joke would be funnier if I wasn’t kidding. And while those yahoos don’t stand a chance, neither does a Dem. challenger. (STAYS GOP)

SOUTH DAKOTA
Incumbent: Tim Johnson (D) is running for re-election
Challenger: State Rep. Joel Dykstra will run against Johnson, assuming governor Mike Rounds stays out of the race (and all indications are that he will).
Outlook: Without a big name like Rounds, the GOP can’t take this seat. Johnson gets the sympathy vote if nothing else, especially now that he has made public appearances and proven that he’s not a permanent vegetable. If Rounds gets in, this race gets interesting. Otherwise, forget it. (STAYS DEM)

TENNESSEE
Incumbent: Lamar Alexander (R) is running for re-election
Challenger: With big-name candidates Harold Ford and Gov. Phil Bredesen sitting this out, the Dem. candidacy will likely go to a smaller fish, possibly Nashville Mayor Bill Purcell.
Outlook: Even if Ford or Bredesen got in, Alexander would probably coast. (STAYS GOP)

TEXAS
Incumbent: John Cornyn (R) is running for re-election
Challenger: Probably state rep. and Afghanistan war vet. Rick Noriega
Outlook: In a June poll, Cornyn had higher disapproval ratings than approval, and Noriega’s war experience could … ah, who am I kidding? This is Texas. (STAYS GOP)

VIRGINIA
Incumbent: John Warner (R) is retiring
Challenger: Popular former Gov. Mark Warner is in, as is GOP Rep. Tom Davis, who will face a primary against former Gov. Jim Gilmore.
Outlook: I don’t care if it’s Davis or Gilmore. Virginia is fed up with the GOP, and the voting base is trending northward, toward the bluer regions of the D.C. suburbs. This one’s a win for the Dems. (SWITCHES TO DEM)

WEST VIRGINIA
Incumbent: Jay Rockefeller (D) is running for re-election
Challenger: None yet.
Outlook: Rockefeller has approval ratings in the high 60s. Nuff said. (STAYS DEM)

WYOMING
Incumbent: Michael Enzi (R) is running for re-election
Challenger: None
Outlook: With the special election happening at the same time, any potential Dem. candidates are likely to look there to unseat a Republican in Wyoming. Thus, Enzi will coast. (STAYS GOP)

WYOMING
Incumbent: John Barrasso, appointed to replace late Sen. Craig Thomas, will run for re-election
Challenger: None yet, but if Gov. Dave Freudenthal runs, this could get close.
Outlook: In heavily red Wyoming, I gotta go with the GOP (STAYS GOP)

So there you have it. A grand total of nine (9) pickups for the Dems and one (1) for the GOP, leaving the final tally of the Senate at 59 Dems and 41 GOP – still not quite filibuster-proof, but with a Dem. president, there’ll be a lot of opportunities to get things done.

[cmaff05]

15. NJ

I think Lautenberg is a question mark for reelection. There have been some rumors about him retiring, and his approval ratings are low. The GOP is going us a fight in NJ.

[SteppingRazor]

16. They can't with what they've got.

The GOP doesn't have a good candidate here. Plus, it's a presidential year with strong Democratic candidates and poor GOP ones. That spells disaster for the GOP in down-ticket races.

[cmaff05]

17. True

But I think the GOP will give us a fight. I don't think we'll run away with my home state. Just my opinion, though.

[SteppingRazor]

18. Oh, I wouldn't take anything for granted.

You lose when you let your guard down. If I sounded devil-may-care, it's only because my writing invariably has a loose attitude. But, yeah, in reality, it'd be foolish to just assume the Dems. will coast in ANY race.