Daily Kos's take on ARG Polls; Delegate counts; Rove- Very interesting

[TakebackAmerica]

ARG Polls; Delegate counts; Rove
by kos
Wed Feb 25th, 2004 at 17:52:43 GMT

American Research Group has polled a slew of March 2 states. MoE 4%. 2/22-24. No trend lines.
GA NY OH
Edwards 37 21 26
Kerry 45 54 47
Kucinich 1 2 11
Sharpton 4 8 1
Other 2 4 3
Undecided 11 11 12


Considering recent trends, Edwards should close the gap in Georgia and win it. Kerry will win most everything else. After March 2, the calendar becomes extremely favorable to Edwards.

March 9: FL, LA, MS, TX
March 13: KS
March 16: IL
March 20: WY, AK
April: 13: CO
April 27: PA
May 4: IN, NC
May 11: NE, WV
May 18: AK, KY, OR

And so on. Given that states aren't winner take all, it may be tough for Edwards to close the 515-delegate gap between him and Kerry (727-212). Kerry needs another 1,434 delegates to close the deal. 2,625 elected delegates are still outstanding. He needs 55 percent of those delegates to win this thing. There's no way, looking at that calendar, that Kerry can score that percentage if (and that's a fairly big "if") Edwards sticks around.

So two other factors will come into play -- delegates committed to Dean and Clark, and uncommitted super delegates. Edwards' best hope for victory is to create a steady stream of victories and deny Kerry the outright majority of delegates.

That way, heading into the convention, super delegates will have the uncomfortable choice of choosing between the guy with the most elected delegates, or the guy who has won the last dozen or so contests. Throw in Dean's and Clark's delegates, and Kerry's character assassination courtesy of Rove, and we have us a real circus. Possible? Yes. Likely? No.

But first things first. Given the electoral heft of New York and California, Edwards can't afford 55-30 finishes in those states if he hopes to make this a delegate race. He has to tighten the race considerably. The latest polls don't show that happening. But if the polls have shown one thing, it's that they consistently undercount Edwards' support.

One last thought, picking up that bit about "Rove's character assassination". The GOP wants to unload on our nominee. They've been waiting for the chance to use that $200 million (or whatever) warchest to define our candidate right out of the starting gate.

But they haven't been able to do so. We don't have a nominee. So that puts them in a quandry. They can start going after Kerry, or frontrunner, but if they hit him too hard they could damage him irreparably, helping Edwards take out Kerry in the upcoming primaries. Rove could very well end up doing Edwards' dirty work, and spending precious dollars doing so.

This has to be about the craziest political season ever.

[Nicholas_J]

1. n order to close the gap and pass Kerry

It will be necessary for Edwards to take 60 percent or more of every states delegates that remained after Wisconsin. Kerry will win most everything else, and a number of other polls taken in states like Florida and California, give Kerry a larger lead, more reflecting the results seen last night in Idaho, Utah and Hawaii. The states chosen by ARG are those in which the gap between Kerry and Edwrds are the closest. In the other states Kerry has around a thirty percent lead on Edwards. There is less than a week for Edwards to close the gap in 10 states. Really not enough time.

[jenk]

2. don't count edwards out in Ohio

[disenfranchised]

3. Or Minnesota.