Suffolk Poll NH: Obama 35%, Hillary 34%, Edwards 15%...

[SaveElmer]

The latest 7NEWS/Suffolk University tracking poll this morning shows Sen. Barack Obama edging Sen. Hillary Clinton, 35% to 34%, with John Edwards at 15%.

Among likely Republican primary voters, Mitt Romney edges Sen. John McCain, 30% to 27%, with Rudy Giuliani third at 10%, Mike Huckabee at 9%, and Rep. Ron Paul at 8%.

Note that this poll is a consistent outlier relative to others showing a much-smaller Obama lead in the Democratic race and putting Romney ahead of McCain in the GOP race.

http://politicalwire.com/archives/2008/01/07/7newssuffolk_poll_close_races_in_new_hampshire.html

[TwilightZone]

1. A lot will depend on where the independents go.

That poll doesn't seem to differentiate, but the Marist poll has a breakdown of the various levels of support. Obama leads among independents; Hillary leads among Democrats.

http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=show_mesg&forum=132&topic_id=3978455&mesg_id=3978455

[Bullet1987]

3. This poll is an outlier that likely doesn't take

Indies into much account. Most polls show Obama winning by double-digits...or very close to it.

[cali]

2. who knows? I actually

think Romney might edge McCain out, but the only way I see that is if Obama gets a big chunk of the Indies. In any case, it's hard to know how it'll sugar off. Perhaps the gap between Clinton and Obama isn't as great as many polls indicate.

[robbedvoter]

20. I'd love for Romney to do it - just for the way Faux treated him at the "forum"

It was a pile-on everyone who stood in the way of their boy McCain!

[MadBadger]

4. The Same Poll had Hillary up 12 points right before the caucus

Now it has Obama up 1. Something tell me, as it did political wire that this poll has always been an outlier. He wasnt down 12 right before Iowa, and he is up more than 1 now.

[Colobo]

7. Exactly.

[SaveElmer]

11. Yet you have ARG saying what you are saying about Obama's lead...given their Iowa prediction...

That ought to make you at least a little nervous...

[MadBadger]

19. The thing about the ARG poll, was that it went against every other poll.

Now, the ARG is in line with Marist, CNN, CBS, USA TODAY, Zogby, Rasmussen, and Strategic Vision, which all show this as at least a 7 point lead for Obama.

Plus from what Ive read, ARG is based in NH and may be a little more accurate here.

[HiFructosePronSyrup]

5. So what about the other 16%?

With the dropouts I'd think they'd be going to somebody in the big three.

[TwilightZone]

8. 11% undecided, 3% to Richardson.

The rest could be rounding or refused to respond.

[HiFructosePronSyrup]

9. Usually the refused to respond aren't counted all all.

Maybe ninety percent of the people didn't respond, and this is simply a breakdown of those who did.

With the undecided being bigger than the margin of error, the poll's completely useless.

[TwilightZone]

13. Look at the link.

"Refused" is listed.

Link: http://www.realclearpolitics.com/articles/docs/NHDay6and7MarginalsJan72008.html

[skipos]

6. MSM will say this is GREAT NEWS FOR MCCAIN

4th place in Iowa. 2nd in NH. McCain is UNSTOPPABLE!!!

[MadBadger]

10. No, Nobody is covering this poll because every other one has Obama up bigger, and McCain up

Outlier

[Bullet1987]

12. MSNBC is covering it...

in an attempt to make the race closer than it really seems to be.

[MadBadger]

15. Thats funny, cuz they used this poll a few days ago to show she had a big lead...

even though most polls showed it a lot closer. Now the same poll shows 13 point swing, and they are using it to say its still close?


Though I will say Mika and Joe this morning were pretty clear, using the 8 point Marist poll, 10 point CNN poll and the 13 point USA today poll.

[robbedvoter]

22. I know - he "killed" in Iowa too! I soo want him to tank tomorrow!

[Occam Bandage]

14. "Note that this poll is a consistent outlier relative to others."

Noted.

[SaveElmer]

16. Course on of the "others" is ARG...we know how well they did in Iowa...nt

[Occam Bandage]

17. Because one poll was an outlier in Iowa,

we should believe a different outlier.

[SaveElmer]

18. Or perhaps this poll is accurate...

Won't know till tomorrow

[Mass]

21. Suffolk - Only poll who said Deval Patrick could lose to Kerry Healey! Enough said.

And anyway, they also note the huge change toward Obama. It is just that they started with a huge lead for Clinton than nobody else had.