Will majority of "Independents" in NH vote Dem or Repub?

[kentuck]

According to most reports, John McCain won the majority of "independent" votes the last time he ran? Do they lean Republican? Or will Obama take most of those votes away from McCain? If he does, then McCain is most likely to lose to Romney and will be close to Huck Falwell for second place? If McCain wins the Republican primary, then he will probably take votes away from Obama? A lot of "ifs" but some interesting scenarios.

[MadBadger]

1. The last time McCain ran was in 2000 before a whole lot of shit

Latest polls show Obama up double digits, so im gonna bet they go to him.

[Bullet1987]

2. I think Obama gets the majority of them

I think McCain's recent comeback is due to growing support from Republicans themselves. Not to say McCain won't get ANY Indie votes though.

[Carrieyazel]

4. No, Obama gets Democratic-leaning Independents and McCain the rest

[kentuck]

3. But the polls are showing McCain ahead at the moment?

Are they including "Independent" voters?

[featherman]

5. Predicted to vote in DEM primary by 60-40

which draws some INDs away from McCain. In other words 60% of the INDs voting at all will be voting for a DEM candidate while about 40% of those INDs voting will vote on the GOP side.

INDs make up over 40% of the NH voters and can make a big difference when they support candidates that appeal to them. They will usually vote in the primary that is most interesting and exciting. In this year's case that's the DEMS and Obama polls very well with INDs.

So good news for Obama and a little bad for McCain since fewer of his INDs will be voting on the GOP side of the ballot

[The Magistrate]

6. Good Question, My Bluegrass Friend

My guess is that with the buzz concentrated on the Democrats and the saga of Sen. Obama, the bulk of independents will be drawn to the Democratic primary, leaving the rump of independents, actually Libertarians, voting in the Republican primary to drive Ron Paul up into double digits. McCain will finish out of the money: these are not the 'glory days' of four years before....

[kentuck]

8. Makes sense, Sir.

Ron Paul will get most of the Republican-leaning Independents and Obama will get most of others. That would indicate to me that McCain may lose to Romney and Huckster may do a little better than predicted. McCain could finish out of the money.

[Alexander]

7. I think they'll split. Turnout will be so high that both Obama and McCain win.

Turnout will be higher on the Democratic side.

[Breeze54]

9. NH went blue in '04 and '06

and I think they'll do it again! :D

[HockeyMom]

10. Two most establishment candidates

are McCain and Hillary. If they are truly independent minded, they won't go for either of them.

I was an Independent for 30 years.

[kentuck]

11. I would guess Ron Paul might do much better than anyone...

is predicting at the moment. He might send McCain to a 3rd or 4th place finish - fighting Guiliani for last place?

[BlueManDude]

12. McCain's full out embrace of the war can't help him with Indies.

[sandyd921]

13. Some of them will vote in the repub primary

instead of the Democratic to vote for Ron Paul, although McCain is still a bit of a factor in NH. It's possible that a fairly significant number of independents could choose to vote in repub primary when you consider the combined impact of McCain and Ron Paul. If so, that's likely to draw votes away from Obama. Basically, I would say that the NH independents are very much an unknown quantity at this point.

[cali]

14. Actually, they're not. Every political pro

in this neck of the woods is predicting they'll break big for the dems, and in particular for Obama. I've been listening to them for days now on VPR and local NH radio.

[OHdem10]

15. McCain is predicted to win the Republican Nomination

He has long standing relationships with Indies.

One NH reporter said there are 40% Independents. He said
you can never tell. They think they will split about half
to each party.