Bush beating Kerry by 9 points in 11 Southern States

[ringmastery]

http://www.local6.com/news/2870470/detail.html

JACKSONVILLE, Fla. -- In University of North Florida poll of southern voters who voted in 2000 and said they intend to vote in 2004, President George W. Bush leads a hypothetical matchup with Sen. John Kerry by 9 percentage points.

In the poll of 802 people in 11 southern states, 51 percent said they'd vote for Bush; 42 percent would vote for Kerry. The results included those who are undecided but lean in one direction. The survey was taken Feb. 9-18 and had a margin of error of 3.5 percent.

According to the survey by the UNF political science professor Dr. Matt Corrigan at the UNF Public Opinion Research Lab of the Florida Center for Public Policy, Republicans have edge on moral and cultural issues and Democrats have slight edge on economic issues.

[DrFunkenstein]

1. Kerry Is Almost Covering The Margin Where No One Thought A Chance!

Fantastic news!!!

[Nicholas_J]

2. UNF

Is run by a rather notorious Republican who jumped ship from the Democratic Party becase as a democratic mayor, he was about to be unseated so he went repuke. After he reached term limits for mayor, he was immediately given the presidency of U.N.F. by Jeb Bush without any academic credentials to qualify him for the job.

Up here the school is affectionately know as Tinkertoy University, or 7-11 College.

I wouldn't put much credence in the polls put out by them.

[Nicholas_J]

5. Oops, I forgot another one

TinyTown Tech....

Some of the teachers require students to pray before and after classes, and while you can complain about separation of church and state, you might not pass your classes if you do.

[Semi_subversive]

3. Maybe if the Dem candidates tell them

Bush will take away all those great southern repube's disability checks, they'll change their minds.

[bluestateguy]

4. Kerry better not write off the whole south

Contest Florida, Virginia, Arkansas and Louisiana. Let Bush have the rest of the south.

[democratreformed]

6. Yeah! Thank you for this.

Arkansas is decidedly democratic as far as other elected officials go. I think we can pull this thing out down here. I really do.

[Syrinx]

10. I know Alabama is one of the most "Republican" states, but

I don't want him to write us off either. He needs to make Bush fight everywhere. The state legislature is still controlled by the Dems, by the way.

I still think Edwards has a better shot at beating Bush, but if Kerry is the nominee, I will do everything I can do to get out the Kerry vote.

[Lexingtonian]

21. SUSA has Kerry leading in Virginia

Kerry 55%, Bush 43%, m.o.e. 4.8% February 11 survey.

IIRC, in some polling Kerry is up about the same in Ohio and West Virginia too, also New Hampshire. Tied in Nevada, down by 6 in Arizona though.

I keep looking for recent Florida or North Carolina polling on the Kerry-Bush matchup but there don't seem to be any made public.

[trogdor]

32. No, he better not write off ANY of the south.

Make Bush go down there and defend his sorry ass. One poster at DailyKos said the Repukes get particularly creepy when they have to do that. Writing off the South enables the GOoPers to keep Pat Robertson and Co. behind a curtain, and when they come out for people to see, bad things happen for the GOP.

[jsw_81]

42. Not Arkansas or Louisiana

Unless Clark is on the ticket, those states (especially Louisiana) are gone. We need to focus all of our energy on Florida and its 27 electoral votes; I think Kerry/Graham would have a great chance of carrying the sunshine state, and if we do carry Florida, Bush loses. Period.

As for Virginia, I've read that northern Virginia has become quite diverse and somewhat progressive in recent years, but I don't know if we can win the state on election day. We'll see.

[TacticalPeek]

7. When aWol carries ONLY Dixie in November,

the rest of y'all can just saw us off and float us out into the Gulf.

The remedial pool.

:)

[democratreformed]

9. No, no we won't go.

By damn, we're gonna get some of these states.

[DemBones DemBones]

15. If the rest of the country sends us their Republicans, it's not our

fault! We keep getting new people and we're not allowed to vet them to make sure they're Democrats!

:shrug:

[TacticalPeek]

28. LOL!

Ain't that the truth?!

[milkyway]

39. Here in NYC we're almost out of repugs, so our shipments will be slowing

down. We've decided not to make any more since no one seems to want them.

[jsw_81]

43. Please get your act together and elect a Democratic mayor next year

[JHBowden]

45. We got you beat in Illinois -- all our Rethugs are in jail!

:beer:

[Auntie Bush]

8. If they put CLARK on the ticket

Kerry could get some of those states. How can they resist his being a fellow Southerner and strong with the Military?
Actually...I'm glad Kerry is behind but not by too far. Then Kerry will see that he NEEDS Clark on the ticket if he is going to win any Southern state.

[SlavesandBulldozers]

11. amen

to that brutha. Florida could be won by a Dem who picked the right running mate.

[deminflorida]

30. Florida could be won easily by Clark...

Someone on the ticket is going to have to camp-out here. Clark already has made in-roads in Florida. He is extremely popular here in the Military areas....

NOTE: Florida is home to the following Military Installations...

NAS Pensacola
NAS Whiting Field
Hurlburt Field AFB
Eglin AFB
Tyndall AFB
NAS Jacksonville
McDill AFB
Patrick AFB
USSOUTHCOM AOR (Key West - Miami)

I'm sure I've missed some....but this state has I believe one of the highest concentrations of Military personnel in America...

AND 27 electoral votes.

Add Arkansas and Louisiana to the areas Clark camps out in and....it's as plain as day....

Kerry putting Clark on the ticket would send political shock-waves through the Bush Administration.

Florida is the Key to putting it away in 2004. Jeb is under the microscope now, dirty tricks tactics by the GOP will be extremely difficult in this state in 2004.

[bowens43]

19. Put Clark on the ticket?

Clark is a loser. The voters have already correctly decided that they don't want Clark anywhere near the white house, what makes you think that he would help the ticket? There is no reason to believe that Clark would help in the south.

[Maine-i-acs]

35. Thanks for crapping on Oklahoma! Clark won the primary there...

Personally I think the General is one of the strongest contenders for Veep.

[jsw_81]

44. That's absurd

Clark would be an extremely formidable vice presidential candidate. Just imagine the debate with Cheney.

[Sinistrous]

12. Not much change from 2000

Considering only Gore and Bush votes, the spread was 44.5% to 55.5% for Bush in those 11 States.

On edit: Corrected my numbers, and well, I guess 9% is better than 11%.

[yellowdawgdem]

13. Tennessee is in play

Clark as vp would bring in Tennessee. Maybe Edwards as vp could do the same.

[DemBones DemBones]

14. Got numbers on how many people have moved to the South

since 2000? They wouldn't show up in a poll designed this way.

In Georgia, we get a lot of new people every year, many of them Hispanics working in the sort of jobs that are now being exported. We need to make them registered Democratic voters before the general election.

[tobius]

16. A question- did Kerry back away from

his suggestion that he may not need the south? sorry, I didn't follow that story closely.

[Scott Lee]

37. You never know. He waffles like the iHop.

He could decide such tomorrow.

[Piperay]

17. Kerry could be unbeatable if

he picks Edwards or Clark to run with him. :thumbsup:

[bowens43]

20. You're right about Edwards

but wrong about Clark. Why would it help to put someone who did as badly as Clark did on the ticket? Seems to me the idea is to attract voters not drive them away.

[mmonk]

26. Clark will do well in the republican west

He will do well in OK and ARK. That alone would probably be enough.

[Adjoran]

18. Polls in February

are like fireworks at the 4th of July picnic: they are nice to look at, but have no lasting value.

Add TN and NC to the list of states we should at least try to contest in the south.

[in_cog_ni_to]

22. Just another reason to put Clark on the ticket.

Kerry/Clark would be UNBEATABLE!

Go Wes! :bounce:

[JCMach1]

23. Regional Polls are Meaningless...

For example, do a West Coast poll and Kerry would be significantly up.

It's about electoral votes, not regions. If the Dems. pull one or two southern states-- it's game over for the Repugs.

[kstewart33]

24. I'm surprised it's only by 9 points

Kerry should be very pleased with these results.

[GreenPartyVoter]

25. There are more states NOT in the South

that'll help.

[Atlant]

27. That's our *MR. ELECTABILITY* for you!

It's funny how, just a few days ago, I was pilloried for saying
that the Democrats wouldn't win a single CSA state.

Atlant

[mmonk]

29. under 10 points is within striking distance

[Scott Lee]

38. He's gonna kerry da nation! *giggle*

[John_H]

31. Damn! I was counting on winning MS, AL, LA, TX, GA, SC, TN, and KY!

I love it when the media whores take a obvious fact and try to make it sound like news.--especially when they miss the real news. That Chimp is down significantly in this poll from the margin he won in 2K.

[LoZoccolo]

33. Interesting.

Southern voters trust Republicans more on moral and cultural issues by 41 to 30 percent.

I don't think that this is as big a margin as a lot of people here would think.

[Octafish]

34. Repugs have an ede in "moral and cultural issues"...hmmm?

Wait till DU gets done spreading the word about Smirk, Sneer and the BFEE. The folks in the South are as smart as anybody.

From the post:

According to the survey by the UNF political science professor Dr. Matt Corrigan at the UNF Public Opinion Research Lab of the Florida Center for Public Policy, Republicans have edge on moral and cultural issues and Democrats have slight edge on economic issues.

[Scott Lee]

36. Its not John's fault, he can't speak Suhthun.

[gristy]

40. What's with this qualification??

North Florida poll of southern voters who voted in 2000 and said they intend to vote in 2004

They don't count the dems who "forgot" to vote in 2000 and have every intention of NOT repeating that mistake? My feeling is that dem turnout in the fall is going to be over the friggin top if the dem primary turnout is any indication.

[Poiuyt]

47. Or those who were turned away

What about the Florida voters whose names were illegally purged from the voter list?

[jsw_81]

41. I'm not surprised

Southern voters appear to be far more concerned about silly social issues than about important economic issues. It would seem that they care more about bashing gays and supporting school prayer than about the fact that they're unemployed, living in a trailer, and unable to afford health care or education. And since Rush Limbaugh and Michael Savage and Bill O'Reilly tell them that Bush is the "family values candidate" and that Kerry is an evil pinko librul from Boston, they vote accordingly. I think Herr Goebbels would be impressed.

[JHBowden]

46. This is outstanding news!

We should be getting blown out down there. The fact that it is even this close at this stage of the game is remarkable.

A few months ago we would have dreamed our candidate was within 9 points of Bush; now were within nine points in the south!