A look at the Obama trends in New Hampshire polls!!!

[mckeown1128]

Here is a look at the trends in New Hampshire. I took only from the daily ones.


HRC BO
Zogby Jan 1-3 32 26 HRC +6.0
Zogby Jan 2-4 32 28 HRC +4.0

Suffolk Dec 31-1 37 20 HRC +17.0
Suffolk Jan 1-2 39 23 HRC +16.0
Suffolk Jan 2-3 37 25 HRC +12.0
Suffolk Jan 3-4 36 29 HRC +7.0


Note the last Zogby was polling two days before the Iowa results and one day after the results. The last Suffolk polling was one day before Iowa and one day afterward.

Hillary has is +4.6 at RCP Most polling(all before Iowa) shows her with a 4 point lead over Obama. The Suffolk poll has been waaaaayyy off from EVERY other poll.

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2008/president/nh/new_hampshire_democratic_primary-194.html

Tomorrow we will see some polling with a bigger shift and it won't be until Monday and Tuesday when we will have anything close to an accurate poll come out of New Hampshire, since most of these polling firms need three solid days of polling to get a decent sample.

[mckeown1128]

1. self-pity-kick

[SOS]

2. Zogby 12/1/07 - Iowa:

Clinton 27
Obama 24
Edwards 21

Actual results:

Obama 38
Edwards 30
Clinton 29

Hopefully Zogby results (and error) will be repeated in NH.

[suston96]

3. Huh.....? Dec 1 compared to Jan 3?

Why is that so significant? That isn't an error in polling. That is way too much time between polls.

Maybe I missed something.

[JackORoses]

4. that is pitiful. you don't like what the polls show so you pretend not to understand the poll?

Dec 31 - Jan 1

You missed it.

[Baconfoot]

7. I believe the person you are responding to so bitterly was talking about SOS's post, not the OP n/t

[suston96]

14. Thanks. Way too funny.

[usregimechange]

5. True, the size of the bump won't be clear until Sunday or Monday

[Robbins]

6. Polls

Let's remember some polls had Hillary In the lead In Iowa,or a threeway tie.And we saw how accurate
they were.Also many polls had Edwards In third place,and he took second.

[Dawgs]

8. Nice try, but almost every poll after the DMR poll had Obama leading.

As a matter of fact(from RCP), Obama was leading in four of the last five polls. Edwards was second, or one behind to Hillary, in four of the last five polls.

So, in other words, you are wrong.

[Drunken Irishman]

9. The only poll I said I would trust on the Iowa caucus was the DMR one.

And I even said before its release that if it had Obama down, then he most likely would lose. It had him up, as I thought it would, and I felt really good about his chances. That is the only caucus poll I trust, because it is not as easy polling a caucus as it is polling a primary. I'll generally believe most polls, unless they look completely ridiculous and out of place like the ARG poll showing Clinton blowing Obama out in Iowa.

[Dawgs]

10. Link that shows 4 of last 5 polls getting it pretty much correct.

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2008/president/ia/iowa_democratic_caucus-208.html

Of course the one poll that blew it was ARG.

[Robbins]

12. Mistake

Then It was just ARG and CNN that went wrong.I don't have to tell why CNN was wrong.

[Robbins]

11. Polls

The much criticed Des Moines poll was the only accutre.Zogby Tracking poll was also close(and the only one with Edwards second)but the Clinton people were spinning a couple other polls which had her ahead(Including the CNN poll)

[Drunken Irishman]

13. It was, sadly, accurate in '04, too.

I was a Gov. Dean supporter back then and really felt punched in the gut when I saw they had him in 3rd place.

It felt like a part of me died when it became reality. :(