I'm not a Clinton supporter, but if I were, I'd look to 1988.

[Drunken Irishman]

Because that's where Clinton's hope rests in this entire thing.

In 1988, Bush was running on the incumbent party's ticket as Reagan's Vice President. He was seen as the establishment candidate, while Bob Dole was more of the outsider appealing for change. In Iowa, Dole crushed Bush. It was an embarrassing defeat for the Vice President, as he, like Clinton, finished 3rd behind Robinson and Dole. It looked like Bush's campaign was beyond just being on the ropes, it looked dead. Bush's huge lead in New Hampshire, as high as 20-points, turned into a slim Dole lead and the days leading up to the primary, Bush looked toast. Then an intense negative ad campaign across the state over the final days pushed Bush to a 9-point victory and he regained his swagger.

With that said, though, the parallels aren't exactly the same. Dole was well behind Bush in NH prior to Iowa, Obama was far more competitive in New Hampshire prior to the Iowa Caucus. There was also a week between Iowa and New Hampshire back then. Right now, it's only four days. That gives a big advantage to Obama, who will be riding a big wave of positive press. As a Dean supporter in 2004, I always believed had there been an extra week, Dean would have pulled ahead of Kerry and won the primary. There was an up tick in his poll numbers leading up to the primary, but the hole was too big to climb out of in that short of time. I envision the same problem with Hillary. The window of opportunity for her to win New Hampshire is small, especially when she has to combat the negative press. I think it's too much to overcome, but, as 1988 showed us, it can be done.

[LSK]

1. someone on Ed Schultz said Hillary is planning to go very negative in NH

[aquart]

4. You trust Ed Schultz?

[LSK]

6. depends on the topic

Hes really into the campaign stuff.

We shall see.

[Renew Deal]

8. No, but I trust TPM

http://tpmelectioncentral.com/2008/01/hillary_plans_to_draw_contrasts_with_obama_in_days_ahead.php

[ronnykmarshall]

7. My cats pooped today too.

[LSK]

10. did they yesterday?

:shrug:

[ronnykmarshall]

14. They take every other day off.

[Sulawesi]

2. I think HRC has to go negative to keep NH...

[SteppingRazor]

3. So, basically, what you're saying is she's gotta come out throwing brickbats.

Not that I disagree. I think Hillary's gotta go into NH swinging, and she's gotta keep doing it till election day.

[Drunken Irishman]

5. I think so. She can't be passive, or she'll lose.

She will need to go negative in hopes that it works. It might blow up in her face, but if she doesn't go nagative, she'll lose anyway.

[Renew Deal]

9. Is there enough time?

I just don't see how there is enough time to go negative and for everyone to find out about it before Tuesday.

[Drunken Irishman]

11. Especially with the weekend coming up.

If the Iowa Caucus had been on Monday and the NH Primary the Monday after, I think there would be a possibility Clinton's attacks would work. However, we're moving into the weekend now and that's where people least pay attention to the news. They'll pick up again Monday, but that's only a day before the primary. So yeah, I agree, I don't think there is enough time. The short period between the two states might be the undoing of Clinton's campaign.

[Renew Deal]

13. Especially when you consider that there is a football weekend in between.

There are other distractions.

[sandnsea]

12. She could admit she made a mistake

trying to run an old-fashioned establishment campaign. She could be honest and authentic. She could show some of the nurturing that must exist, as well as the kind of toughness that all of us moms know we have. If she would just be honest, she could win this thing.

But she won't.

[Arugula Latte]

15. You're right -- that'll never happen. Her phoniness is a big part of her trouble.

People see through her, just like they see through Slick Mitt Romney.

Example: Last night she said that war should be a last option -- after all she's done to enable Bushco's Iraq Slaughter! Phoney, phoney, phoney.

[Catherine Vincent]

16. Why would someone take advice from a drunken Irishman?

:)

[Drunken Irishman]

17. I hear that Kennedy was a big drunk. ;)

[Rosa Luxemburg]

18. Here come the Swiftboats!

Obama can sink em