How Did Hillary blow it?

[Capn Sunshine]

Hillary Clinton had everything on her side, it seemed. Name recognition. A nationwide network of political contacts from a generation of party work. Dozens of endorsements, albeit from aging singers, pols and athletes. A vaunted political operation from her husband's numerous successes. Her popular husband himself. A detailed grasp of policy. A steely determination. A sharp, calculating mind. More than $100 million. And, until Thursday night, a sense of inevitability about her Democratic nomination and even coronation as the next president, the first first lady to do that, and a triumphant return to the White House.

Now, BOOM! That's gone. She blew it.

But how?

The LA Times political blog classifies the Macro picture, but there's more two it. Our campaign whomped everyone because we know the ground game, plain and simple, and they don't. It's like driving. Everyone can do it, but some operate badly, some don't. Penn and his smarmy bunch of sycophants think they know the mechanics of a ground game, but they just proved to me they don't. They can operate a phone, but the quality of the call is bogus. They can stalk the neighborhoods for votes, but everyone thinks they are creepy. The very nature of the composition of the campaign organization organically attracts simpatico like- kind people, and I've made no secret of my contempt for the group of professional losers on board with the Clinton campaign. The DLC mantra is finally being shown as the bankrupt retread 90's relic it always has been. When your medicine show sells a tonic that made everyone sick the last time around, it's a good idea to avoid revisiting that town.

Will they learn? I don't know, but the intimation from Penn and Co. indicates they think that they need to go negative. In New Hampshire. NEW HAMPSHIRE. "Live free or die" also means "Don't bullshit me" and negative attacks are always percieved as bullshit. They also imply your candidate has nothing to offer.

Hillary better grab this campaign bus's wheel and fast. These guys advised her not to bring Bill around, which I thought was so, so wrong. They reneged because they became desperate, and desperation shows , it smells rank and foul, and you can see it a mile away. Especially in a no-bullshit zone like New Hampshire.

[ingac70]

1. Bringing up Obama's kindergarten essay....

and allowing her campaign people to suggest Obama sold drugs blew up in her face.

:nopity:

[annie1]

2. The 'kindergarden essay' was her defending herself against something nasty obama said about HER.....

http://www.swamppolitics.com/news/politics/blog/2007/11/obama_on_the_clinton_secret_pa.html

[ingac70]

27. Well, she screwed herself doing it. n/t.

[Rageneau]

38. Because the MSM intentionally turns every word against her.

One does not have to be an acute observer of the corporate MSM to be aware that they hate (and always did) Hillary, and cast her in the worst light possible every time they get a chance. That's how an 'attack' by Obama was turned into an "attack" by HRC, and why -- in the MSM's memory -- that is how it will always be remembered.

Obama has had a free ride until now, and may continue to get one for a while. The Media has bussed and buttressed him while ragging on HRC. JE, and DK for all sorts of silliness, including haircuts and UFOs. I believe we can count on the MSM to continue to do what it can to make sure Obama is the Dem nominee.

What I dont know yet, is whether said treatment originates in Hillary hatred, fear of Edwards and Dennis, or in the GOP's secret, cynical belief that -- with the right tactics -- they can keep any black man from becoming president.

Or, maybe, all of the above.

[sniffa]

28. ooh, that was very nasty

ouch!

[roguevalley]

40. They all need to shut up and tell us WHY we should vote FOR them,

not why avoid the other guy. Negative is the kiss of death I think.

[ingac70]

44. I agree...

Negativity on that scale is a turn off to Dems.

Criticizing someone on policy is one thing, but to get personal is low down, and shows that the campaign pulling the dirty tricks really has nothing to offer.

[Bullet1987]

9. Change is really a big narrative to come out of Iowa

and largely the entire 2008 race. People are throwing out the Statists and going for the Idealists. People are tired of living in fear, they want to believe again. This hurts Guiliani, Clinton, and maybe McCain the most. I say McCain because if Independents come out strong for Obama and not him...it's saying something.

[juajen]

53. This is downright scary. The world is in sinful shape and needs

a pragmatist, not a pollyannna. This is what frightens me most about Obama and his supporters. Sit down with pugs? Indeed! Just be nice to them and they will be nice back. Shades of our Mothers teaching us how to get along. Isn't this what everyone accuses Pelosi and Reid of doing? But, it will magically work with Obama? I guess the color of his skin will frighten them into compliance. The neocons will not go quietly into that good night. Get a grip, people. Change and hope are great, but to rule, Obama will need a magic wand.

[FSogol]

3. I don't think she's blown anything yet.

I'm not a big Hillary supporter but people who think she blew it are over-emphasizing the importance of Iowa. In another 2-3 weeks (1/8 NH, 1/15 Michigan, 1/19 Nevada), it should be evident whether she has the chops to remain a front runner. Why would a NY Liberal do well in Iowa? Especially if the youth are supporting another candidate. No one is claiming yesterday's caucus is the death knell for Guiliani's (another NY candidate) campaign.

my 2 cents.

[Sherman A1]

8. Agreed

Certainly she would have wanted a resounding victory in Iowa, but I don't think she has blown anything at this point. It is far, far too early.

[annie1]

10. MI is out, they moved their primary up and have been penalized.

[Bullet1987]

23. The delegates for Michigan won't count now...

[emilyg]

24. Agree.

[Tarc]

4. Srsly

How is being down by a whopping 2 delegates (18-16) when over 2,000 are needed to secure the nomination "blowing it" ?

[Capn Sunshine]

26. see number 5 and my OP

they started in Iowa with a 20% lead. I'd say that's blowing it.

[Tarc]

34. See the history of every past election

All races tighten up the closer it gets. What you ascribe to "blowing it" is a natural and common occurrence.

[HeraldSquare212]

5. Right: they are incompetent and can't execute on negative.

[annie1]

12. agree. her campaign fucking sucked.

[Double T]

6. One question? What is going to be said next week if HRC wins.........

BIG. I support Edwards and I think MANY are drastically overestimating Iowa and grossly underestimating NH and beyond.

[beberocks]

13. Exactly! Saying that HRC blew it is a gross distortion of reality.

My bet is that Obama will finally get the scrutiny he deserves, and he'll be losing some of his support shortly.

[Capn Sunshine]

31. I don't think they can

especially if they think the answer is to go negative.

Like everything in their misbegotten organization, they just can't get the mechanics right.
Hillary's speechifying is not what wins this. It's ground game, and from what I see, so far the New Hampshire organization is still going to take marching orders from the national campaign, and they can't articulate what people want to hear. They think they have to tell people what they should think, and this cycle, that doesn't get it.

[Double T]

36. I don't think voters can be told what to think, specially in these times.

I think ALL of the supporters of ALL the different candidates need to come back to earth; reality next week could be a 'bitch'.

[goldcanyonaz]

17. Many here don't seem to understand the part that delegates play in the nomination.

[Buzz Clik]

7. This can easily be over-analyzed. We've a long way to go. She hasn't blown it yet.

[Dr Fate]

11. She intentionaly ignored or opposed the base, and it pissed us off and motivated us.

I think that is part of it- I know that is the case with me- the more her people tell me that I'm some kind of "nut roots loony" for opposing Bush and the war and Lieberman, the more $ I donate to Eddie & Obama.

This whole thing where the DLC bad talks and intentionaly opposes the base is not endearing her to long time DEM activists/voters/workers. Running a "moderate" national campaign in a DEM primary apparently isnt working-at least not in Iowa.

[AlinPA]

14. I'm not sure she ever had the "lead". The media said she did. She is also overexposed,

and frankly people in IA may have tired of her. This is just one data point, but last night on the caucus I heard a man say, OK, our candidate is not viable, I'll just go over with the "change" candidate (Obama).

[dailykoff]

15. Hillary blew it 7 years ago when she got in bed with the neocons.

She's got a six-year record of complicity and her nutcrackers won't save her now.

[SOS]

37. Good point

The AuMF yes-voters (Clinton, Edwards, Dodd and Biden) all lost.

The Iraq war will be the defining issue and the yes-voters just couldn't convince people with their rationales.

The "flip-flop" cudgel may well be removed from the Republican arsenal this time.

[ShaneGR]

16. Be careful about EVER writing a Clinton off....

I wouldn't be surprised if she ran away with New Hampshire.

[Dr Fate]

35. No one wrote her off- that is why 2 candidates worked extra hard and beat her.

No one did and no one is writing her off at all- she was and still is the star candidate to beat.

If anything, it was Hillary who wrote off the activist base of the party. I hope she corrects that mistake.

[ChairmanAgnostic]

42. bill was a master pol. She ain't close to his shadow.

she reads a script, carefully prepared, augmented with focus group data, always on message. That is not the mark of a pol.

[geiger]

18. In a word, arrogance.

[billyskank]

19. Maybe most of her lead was a positive feedback effect in the press.

The press talked about her the most, and so assumed that she was the front runner, which meant they talked about her the most, etc.

Of course this is only one poll, and of an unrepresentative population. It doesn't mean that she won't do well elsewhere. But still, it is interesting to see the first real test of public opinion, and not only does she not win, she doesn't even come second.

[rAVES]

20. As MM flint put it, it was her support of the War. albeit political calculus rather than Ideological

[suston96]

21. I don't think Hillary blew it so much as Obama won it.

Obama won it big time and if he continues in the same vein - lots of young independents and crossovers - he will do it again and again through super-tuesday.

Hillary has to get her women base back, for starters - and tell independents to go vote for McCain. He needs them.

[Arugula Latte]

22. For me it's two things: Arrogance and phoniness.

I just cringe when she speaks, for both of those reasons.

[demigoddess]

25. a lot of those new people at the demo caucuses were independents and repubs

who have probably bought into this idea that Hillary is that BAD WOMAN behind the philandering man. Just because someone shows up at a demo caucus does not mean they have left all their old ideas behind them.

[Ytzak]

29. Hillary lost because she failed to recognize a change in the political climate...

She crafted her Senatorial career so that every vote contributed to a resolute national defense stance. This was designed to counter the perceived Democratic weakness in National Defense. The issues were not about national defense.

She refused to back down from her vote on the war to counter the regular Republican attack on any Democrat as a flip-flopper. Edwards saw early that only be admitting his mistake would he have a chance, and he beat her.

She ran a centrist campaign, as did her husband, to counter the regular Republican attack that any Democrat is a liberal. She did not realize that Democrats are no longer running from the liberal label.

She failed to recognize that all those under thirty voters were finally ready to come out. Obama fired the youth up in Iowa, and they came out for him.

She failed to recognize that just being a woman wasn't enough to get women to vote for her.

She failed to recognize how hungry the electorate is for change, and with her husband an last name no one saw her as a candidate that stood for change.

The political climate changed, and she lost...in Iowa. Now we will have to see how things come out in the reast of the US.

[Dr Fate]

32. Nail, meet hammer. n/t

n/t

[Perry Logan]

30. Forgive my ignorance--did that thing with Kucinich throwing some votes to Obama ever materialize?

[Bumblebee]

33. I am not an Obama supporter, esp. after McClurkin, but it was clear

to me last night that, given the enthusiasm for Obama coming from younger generations, Clinton could have not done anything else to win Iowa. People who choose her go by practical reasons (not unlike Kerry in 04), some are emotional about her being a woman but there are always some reservations. My problems with Obama have been: 1. I do not think he is as progressive as many think he is, as the whole McClurkin affair showed 2. My main objective is winning the WH and I am still scared of the hidden but strong racist undercurrent affecting the general vote which doomed several strong black candidates for lesser offices before, even when they appeared to be strong in the polls because people do not admit their biases to pollsters 3. He _is_ inexperienced, and, if he is running against McCain and, god forbid, something happens between now and November, people's priorities will change very quickly and they will vote for "safe" rather than "exciting."

Having said that, what I saw yesterday made me think that if he can generate the same level of enthusiasm, vigor, increased numbers, et al in other states, it may bode well for the general election because it matters a lot and that's what was missing with Kerry and probably will be missing with Clinton. As to Edwards, he is really not in the picture any more, let's be realistic.

I still want Clinton to win NH -- but not because I necessarily want her to be the nominee. I just want a real race for a while and to have two options at this early point rather than one because I am still so undecided. I think it is also good for the eventual nominee to sharpen the skills in debates with each other -- as long as it does not turn ugly and very negative.

My strong regret is that Bill Richardson, who has it all on paper, did not turn out to be a more exciting or even competent campaigner. As to Edwards, I used to support him but then lost my enthusiasm for him -- probably at the time he decided to go negative against Clinton. Plus, when we have a potentially first black president, or Hispanic president, or female president, it is kind of anticlimactic to root for another white male...

Finally, the debate on Saturday will be great -- with just four of them, and lots of time, it will be a really serious and thoughtful discussion. Plus to see four such diverse candidates on the stage as Dem strongest options makes me very proud as a Democrat, regardless of who wins in the end.

[jgraz]

39. She didn't "blow" it. She never "had" it.

Hillary is the Mitt Romney of the Democrats. Slick presentation, lots of money and no core beliefs. That house of cards was coming down at some point.

[juajen]

51. BS. She has it and you will know it!

N/T

[jgraz]

54. Bookmarking for after she loses NH and SC

Should be fun to hear your rationalizations then.

[Tom Joad]

41. it's the DAMN WAR you Voted for, HILLARY!

Now, go back to new york. finish your damn senate term, and then leave politics forever.
You sure as hell don't deserve any public office.

[Bumblebee]

45. Do we need to be so visceral in our hatred of other Dems

on the thread where people who may still support different candidates, including Clinton, or are undecided are just trying to be more analytical than partisan? This is really SO unhelpful.

[Tom Joad]

46. that's not my problem. She supports war, i don't want her in office

I wish her a long life selling shoes or baking cookies or doing auto repair, I don't care. She should just stay the hell away from public office. along with anyone else supporting the Iraq war.

You may not be aware of this, but the war Hillary supported has cost hundreds of thousands of human lives. Her politics of war and oppression has had a real impact.

[Bumblebee]

47. No, only you, obviously, are the "aware" person.

[HiFructosePronSyrup]

43. Yup.

Not that we didn't know this would happen.

[Kolesar]

48. She's a cold fish. The right wingers had more interest in her campaign than I did

They knew she wanted the presidency and they obsessed on her campaign. It looks like they are going to be denied the pleasure of being the insane opposition.

As for the Democrats, what Hillary had was name recognition, nostalgia, and a big campaign organization. Her message was suck-ola: "America's best times are ahead of us, blah, blah, blah, clean up after the Bushes, blah, blah, blah". The cold fish gave me nothing to get excited about. Then there was her dismissal of the well read left wingers who knew better about the war and knew that she knew better about the war, too.
Happy new year! :party:

[gorekerrydreamticket]

49. All she's blown so far has been a pile of her cash...

but she has plenty more...

[juajen]

50. She didn't blow anything. Into everyone's life, strife cometh. Obama was her strife.

So, it's a horse race. Go, Hillary, go!

[Wizard777]

52. Running on her record and policies.

Also acting as if she is the heir apparent. That's just arrogant on a Bush scale. Oh yeah and then there is her and Bill being all chummy with the Bush's. We're not going to like Bush and she can't make us. She can only make us hate her as much as we do Bush. Then you also the fact that Bush has ruined all notions of a relative of a former President making a good President.