Suffolk County University- New Hampshire Tracking Poll- Clinton 37% Obama 25% Edwards 15%

[DemocratSinceBirth]

The poll shows Clinton far ahead of her rivals with 37 percent of the vote in New Hampshire, although Obama gained some ground after his surprise win in the Iowa caucuses last night. The poll shows Obama with 25 percent of the vote in New Hampshire and John Edwards, who edged out Clinton to finish a close second in Iowa, follows with 15 percent.

Paleologos said Obama still has a lot of work to do in New Hampshire. He said Iowa was a clinch win for Obama, but in order to win in New Hampshire he has to bring a lot of young voters to the polls and Edwards’ support has to collapse.


http://news.bostonherald.com/news/2008/view.bg?articleid=1064596

This could get very interesting... Is John Edwards Hillary Clinton's "Praetorian Guard" and will Senator Obama have to take out the former senator from the Tar Heel State to get his prey...Buckle your seats, boys and girls, it's about to become a bumpy ride...

[Mass]

1. Suffolk is a terrible polling firm. Clinton is probably first, but not by that far.

And Paleologos has made some very terribly bad prediction in the past both in MA and NH.

[aquart]

2. Interesting assumption that Edwards votes will go to Obama.

Did they poll how many Edwards Iowans had Obama as a second choice?

[salin]

8. or that they will "go" anywhere at all.

[LSK]

3. how in the hell can they do a poll already????

When was this conducted? Did they call people in the middle of the night?

[DemocratSinceBirth]

5. It's A Tracking Poll

They aren't claiming to include the reaction to Obama's victory...

[Teaser]

6. "gained some ground after his surprise win"

That implies the poll was taken after his "win".

If they mean the data was processed after his win, but the poll during...well that's a crappy way for them to write it up.

[MadBadger]

4. This poll was taken before the Iowa results were known.

[TeamJordan23]

7. Iowa showed that a lot of the polls were inaccurate....only DMR and Zogby were reliable at the end.

nm

[Gormy Cuss]

9. A poll is difficult to use as a predictor of caucus results

A poll may be a decent gauge of a primary but not a caucus because the former tends to attract more participation among those less motivated, especially in states where referenda and other measures are also on the ballot.