The unspoken race in NH: Obama vs McCain

[Perky]

NH is an Open Primary state. That means independents can vote in either primary.


Independents and first time caucus-goers are who gave Obama his victory in Iowa last night. Independents are how McCain beat Bush in NH in 2000,

Both are polling exceptional well among Independents in NH this time around. Bit the independent pie is only so large. If they break heavily for McCain, He wins the primary,Romney is finished and Hillary may well win NH setting up a huge battle in South Carolina. If they break for Obama, He wins NH, Edwards is probably done and Obama is probably well on his way to the nomination, but that also means McCain does not win NH and bows out, it sets up a very interesting battle in the GOP between the Church Crowd and establishment Republicans.

Fascinating.

[Perky]

1. kick

[adapa]

2. Very good point , I believe we're gonna see mostly Dems voting in the Dem primary

Having talked with a number of NH residents, some of which are independents-
I will be very surprised if they don't brake for McCain.

I think we're gonna see mostly Dem's voting in the Dem primary.
The tendency here is to vote against a candidate, it's hard to vote for someone. I think a lot of people are gonna vote against Huck. & Rom.

[Perky]

3. ok so if the Indpendents break for McCain

Say 2:1 Its MccCain in NH and a three way battle in Michigan and a two way battle in South Carolina

I still think Obama wins NH but not nearly as big (alot is going to depends on what Edwards supporters do. I think he become presumptive at that point becasue SC should fall his way.

[adapa]

4. If the independents break for McCain

I think Clinton will win in NH. Of course the wild care is the amount of young people who show up for Obama. But if we're talking the normal primary voter with the independents breaking for McCain then my $ is on Hillary.

I don't know about Mich or SC. SC could be interesting---

[Perky]

5. Independent are everything in NH

[Egnever]

6. Very fascinating and with the trend in independents

I think its possible this scenario is repeated in many of the states where both parties hold their primaries or caucuses the same day.
This is the first Election I am aware of where the nominees on other side have the possibility of affecting the outcome of the other parties candidates. Its an incredibly complex situation and one that i think will be looked at for years to come to try and explain what exactly happened with the possibility that had one party voted later or earlier than the other the entire race may have gone differently.

It sure as hell will be interesting to watch from just a technical point of view.

[Perky]

7. I think Obama is likely to take about 60% of the independent voters in NH

That might be enough for Romney to eek out a win. That would set up an extroardinary battle on the GOP side in SC between Huckabee and Romeny for the soul of the GOP and what liekly woould be Hillary's last chance.

[MadBadger]

8. How anti-war are these independents?

Thats an important question. I actually think Obama is fighting for votes with Ron Paul.

[Perky]

10. I think Paul is probable a bigger drain on McCain than Obama

True libertarians probaly are less anti-war than they are pro-lib.

[MadBadger]

11. But I think there are a lot of uninformed Paul Supporters

They only see him as a republican who wants out of Iraq, not the crazy loon who wants to end all government.

[Sulawesi]

9. With Obama's momentum, I think this hurts McCain...both to some extent but McCain more...

Then again, I heard some talking head minimize this, that these indies tend to follow party lines in voting...