GALLUP: The Impact of Iowa on the Democratic Race

[jefferson_dem]

Americans Speculate About Iowa’s Impact

Predict opportunity for Obama; trouble in sight for Giuliani

PRINCETON, NJ -- The Jan. 3 Iowa caucuses are positioned to transform the dynamics, if not the outcome, of the major parties' presidential nomination races, particularly if the results defy expectations. An upset win by a candidate in this first contest of the season could sway New Hampshire primary voters on Jan. 8, and from there it's anybody's guess what happens.

Gallup recently asked Americans to adopt the role of political pundit and speculate about how various possible outcomes in Iowa and New Hampshire might affect the candidacies of the winners and losers.

According to the Dec. 10-13, 2007, Gallup Panel survey, Americans tend to play up the significance of Barack Obama possibly winning in Iowa, as well as the significance of hypothetical back-to-back defeats for Rudy Giuliani in Iowa and New Hampshire. Americans play down the significance of a John Edwards win in Iowa, and also of Hillary Clinton potentially winning in both Iowa and New Hampshire. Americans have mixed views about what winning Iowa would mean for the campaigns of Mitt Romney and Mike Huckabee.

Speculation on the Democratic Race

Most polls of likely Iowa Democratic caucus-goers show a highly competitive race among Clinton, Obama, and Edwards, making it appear that any of the three could win Iowa. That's a much different position for Clinton than is the case in the national polls, where she leads Obama by a considerable margin, and where Edwards is in a distant third place.

What effect do Americans think losing Iowa would have on Clinton's shot at the nomination? Seven in 10 Americans, including 84% of Democrats, would consider losing Iowa to be "a temporary setback" for Clinton's campaign. Fewer than one-third would see it as "a sign that her campaign is in serious trouble."



At the same time, and somewhat contrary to their views of a Clinton loss in Iowa, most Americans -- including nearly three in four Democrats -- believe an Obama win in Iowa would be "a sign that he will seriously challenge Hillary Clinton for the nomination," and not just a "temporary victory" for him.



Thus, the impact of a potential Obama victory in Iowa on the psychology of the race is a bit unclear. Americans say it would make him a force to be reckoned with; at the same time, they don't seem to believe it would seriously derail the "Clinton Express."

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http://www.gallup.com/poll/103516/Americans-Speculate-About-Iowas-Impact.aspx

[msongs]

1. Iowa results shouldnt derail anybody or annoint anybody either - that's the media's job nt