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1. McCain starts out as presumptive "paid his dues" nominee with the support of the Republican Establishment. Got the resume, took his licks in 2000, kissed the ring of Bush, slavishly supports the war.
2. McCain campaign is so incredibly inept and spendthrift, and McCain himself so prone to gaffes and blunders, that his campaign goes into intensive care, setting the stage for the presumptive nominee laurel to be duked out between Mayor Mc9/11 and Romney (with the official Republican Establishment blessing apparently going to Mayor Mc9/11), with entry of the sexy Thompson X Factor encouraged.
3. Giuliani's strategy of ignoring Iowa and NH seems incredibly boneheaded to start with. The whole premise of Giuliani's "Mayor of 9/11" campaign is so thin, the candidate himself so obnoxious and unlikeable, and so much information about corruption, infidelity etc. circulating out there about him that his front runner status begins to implode even before primary time, with the Presumed Front Runner Status sliding towards Romney's lap.
4. Romney fits every worst stereotype of the mealymouthed pandering politician talking out both sides of his mouth, so despite any money and organization, his support is thin.. At least his strategy of trying to win in the early states is sound, it just turns out he apparently can't pull it off. The surprise Southern Charmer Huckabee comes on the scene and challenges him.
5. During an unusual week or two leading up to Iowa dominated by media coverage of the Romney/Huckabee battles, McCain and Giuliani virtually disappear off the radar screen. For McCain, this period somehow engenders a miraculous resurrection of his campaign from the land of the dead back towards credibility and even reclaiming front runner status if he can win NH, while for Giuliani it seems to be a time where his campaign is being completely smothered for lack of media oxygen.
6. Obviously Huckabee's win in Iowa puts him in the top 2-3 candidates now for Republicans. But it relied on a small number of Iowa Republicans, 60 percent of whom are self identified evangelicals. Talk about your distorted samples. Nonetheless Huckabee has considerable personal charisma, so I fear and respect him to a degree as a candidate, but he has major vulnerabilities as do all the Republican candidates.
7. Oh, and during all this time, Thompson's campaign (which I did fear somewhat before it actually began) has exceeded my lowest possible expectations for turpitude and underachievement. Even starting with how incredibly decrepit he looked in every public appearance. I realize he's old, but I figured if anyone, the Hollywood actor would figure out how to look kind of like his Hollywood persona, but maybe there's just a certain threshold of old fogeyhood that no makeup artist can do anything with. Plus the guy seemingly did absolutely nothing but mumble simple minded platitudes and visit gun stores in the South. Like the guy in "City Slickers" said, "The man ate bacon 3 meals a day. You just can't do that." Can you?
So somehow, unbelievably, McCain is poised to actually reclaim front runner status, if he can start raising money again? Whodathunkit? :shrug:
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