10 Keys to the Caucus: Weather, Turnout, Wednesday Night Church, Anti-Immigration Hardliners...

[DeepModem Mom]

TIME: The 10 Keys to the Caucus



With both the Republican and Democratic races in Iowa too close to call, the winner could turn on such small but crucial factors as snowflakes and babysitters

The Weather
By JAMES CARNEY

It's hard enough convincing Iowans to venture from their homes on a weekday evening in mid-winter to spend a few hours caucusing in a school gymnasium, community center or church basement. But what happens if there's a blizzard or an ice storm? What if temperatures dip below zero? Conventional wisdom and past history suggest that bad weather benefits those candidates whose supporters are the most die-hard caucus-goers - and hurts those who are counting on an influx of first-time participants. Among the GOP contenders, bad weather might harm Huckabee's chances the most, since he is counting on sheer enthusiasm to make up for his campaign's lack of money and organization. In the Democratic contest, it means John Edwards is praying for snow, while Obama and Clinton hope for clear skies. The weather is particularly key to Clinton, since more than 1,000 of her pledged supporters are between the ages of 90 and, yes, 110. Her campaign has purchased hundreds of snow shovels and countless pounds of rock salt; campaign workers plan to literally dig out Hillary supporters, if necessary, to get them to their caucuses. They've also rented scores of SUVs to help ferry elderly voters to their caucus sites. Tonight's forecast: no precipitation but frigid temperatures across the state.

Turnout
By JAMES CARNEY

Predicting who will turn up at the Iowa caucuses is an almost futile exercise. About 125,000 people participated in 2004's Democratic contest. This year, predictions range from 120,000 to 200,000 or more. The bigger the turnout, the more likely it is that either Obama or Clinton will win, since first-time caucus-goers make up a huge portion of each candidate's pledged supporters (60% in Hillary's case). The newcomers among Obama's supporters skew young — as in college age — which is a slice of the electorate that has been historically unreliable when it comes to showing up and voting. Will that pattern prove true again? Hillary's supporters tend to be older, and therefore more reliable. The final Des Moines Register poll, which gave Obama a 7-point lead, also predicted an exceptionally strong turnout of 200,000, driven by a big increase in the number of "independents" registering and taking part. If that happens, it will be bad news for John Edwards, who placed a strong second to John Kerry in the 2004 caucuses. Among the most dependable participants — those who caucused in 2004 — Edwards has a distinct advantage. For him, the lower the turnout, the better. On the GOP side, overall turnout will be lower than for the Democrats, probably under 100,000. The lower the number, the more victory will depend on the ability of campaigns to get their supporters to their caucus sites. If organization trumps enthusiasm, Romney will benefit.

Wednesday Night Church...

Anti-Immigration Hardliners...

Child Care
By JAMES CARNEY

The best campaigns — or at least the ones with organizers who suffer from obsessive-compulsive disorder and the resources to indulge them — think of everything. And this year, thinking of everything means helping your candidate's supporters sort out their child care issues so they can make it to their precinct by 7 pm and vote. The Obama and Clinton campaigns are both offering on-site child care at select sites and encouraging people to bring their kids. On the Republican side, the process is shorter, so child care is less of an issue. Still, it could matter for Mike Huckabee, whose supporters include large numbers of parents who home-school their children.

Does Money = Votes?
By JAMES CARNEY

Often, the answer is yes. And if Barack Obama and Mitt Romney win the Democratic and Republican caucuses respectively, the biggest spenders will be the biggest winners. But what if John Edwards prevails over Obama and Hillary Clinton, despite having spent far less in Iowa than either of his rivals? Even more shocking proof that money does not always buy voter love would be a victory by Mike Huckabee over Romney in the GOP contest. Romney has outspent Huckabee by 5-to-1 on ads in Iowa, and by a much larger margin overall. And yet Huckabee and Romney were in a dead heat in most of the final polls going into today's caucuses....

What Counts as Winning?...

The Ron Paul Factor...

A Late Night Lift?

http://www.time.com/time/specials/2007/0,28757,1699512,00.html

[ayeshahaqqiqa]

1. I want to see Paul do well,

even if he is a loon on most issues. If he does well, his showing repudiates the GOP's actions in Iraq.

As for our candidates--mine won't win, but I hope he and the others stay in the race at least until February. It is wrong that only Iowans get to choose who runs for election. I want my vote to count for something rather than knowing when I go to the courthouse the nomination is a foregone conclusion.