The real math in Iowa. Independent voters are everything!!!! Who wins them?

[Perky]

There are 1,800 caucus sites and something like 180,000 caucus goers. That means on average about 100 caucus goers per site.

The conventiional wisdom is that the three top tier candidates have about 90% of Dems between them. Those are locked up. the other 10% will be judged "nonviable" in most of the caucuses but given the number of sites that is not really a significant number.

The real wildcard is the predicted 40% of caucus goers who are independents and a smattering of Fed-up Republicans.(no they are not crossing over to play dirty tricks because their race is competitive as well)

So if there are 100 caucus goers per site and each of the top tier gets between 18 and 23 votes each for a total of 50 votes and the 10% of other dems split out evenly in the second round for the 60% od dem voters.


The real question is where the other 40% is going to wind up.


That is where the caucuses will be won or lost.

So it really comes down to who gets the most independent voters to the caucus sites. but more succinctly whoever goes beyond their true Blue supports and gets 50% of the Independents will win the caucus site and whoever does that the most across the site wins the night.

[Bitwit1234]

1. Dumb

What do you think the Democratic base is. The Ind. can't carry an election on their own. All they do, like with Gore they screw things up.

[monmouth]

2. Actually, Biden will benefit..n/t

[Perky]

3. I don't think so.

It is not a knock on him. It is simply that his precinct captains where he has them will be competing with the top tier for the independent voters who who come in either unaligned with one of the top tier or come in supporting Richardson Dodd or Kucinich. He still has to get to 15% threshhold or his support goes elewhere

The only way that works is if Biden and Richardson agree to consnizationolidate caucus goeres after the first round and that would require substantial coordination and very strong precinct captains in precincts where the top tier is weak in order to get together and grow to the 15% necessary.

[Infinite Hope]

4. All polls on the matter show Edwards is the favorite second-choice candidate as well. n/t

[Perky]

5. Those polls are among Dems.

But with 90% already committed to one of the top three. the second choic amongDemocratic Caucus goes is actually wuite small.
But again it is how the unaligned independent voters wind up voting. on the first ballot that is most important.

[nyc 4 Biden]

6. Biden.

He is most appealing to centrists.

[salin]

7. I have no idea.

It depends how 'angry' these voters are as to whether they are "so fed up" (with bushco and the way things have been going) that they want a fight, or if they are concilatory and want "everyone to just get along" - but do so in a different direction than bush (if they wanted to stay the bush direction, they would be caucusing with republicans.) I really think it is a big toss-up.