Financial Times Predictions for 2008: President Clinton, Google grows, $100 oil, but no US recession

[fightindonkey]

They did it pretty well prediciting what would be ahead in 2007: Nicola's victory, Obama's political trajectory and no US attack in Iran. Now, they try to take a glimpse at what 2008 is going to be like:

Will Hillary Clinton be the next US president?

Most likely, yes. Barring a remarkable upset, the Democratic nominee will win the election, so great is the unpopularity of this administration – and Mrs Clinton will be the nominee.

Barack Obama’s surge in Iowa and New Hampshire shows voters grow to like him more the better they know him. Americans want a change, and he is fresh. Also, there are signs of Clinton fatigue. For all her talents, the former First Lady is not new – and leaning on her husband’s popularity whenever her campaign misfires underlines the fact.

Even so, Mrs Clinton’s grip on the nom­ination is tighter than the Obama bounce suggests. If the nomination contest were fought primary by primary Mr Obama might be favourite to win – but it is not. In February the elections arrive in a rush, and the candidates are spread thin. Mrs Clinton will not give up if she loses the first two votes: her drive and ambition forbid it. Her lead among Democrats is big and well-entrenched. Overturning it is likely to be beyond even Mr Obama. Clive Crook

Will Pervez Musharraf stay in charge?

The murder of Benazir Bhutto underlines the savage unpredictability of Pakistani politics. Pervez Musharraf’s chances of seeing out 2008 as president may be enhanced if the murder of Ms Bhutto is laid at the door of jihadists or al-Qaeda. This would allow him to argue plausibly that Pakistani demo­cracy – and indeed the Pakistani state – are threatened by Islamist terrorism, and might serve as a justification for a further period of emergency rule.

However, the president’s position is probably now more insecure. Whatever the real truth, Mr Musharraf’s supporters in the US and in the Pakistani military may conclude that he is too tainted and divisive a figure to merit further support. A period of increased instability is now inevitable. There is a better than even chance that Mr Musharraf will not be president by the end of the year. Gideon Rachman

Will Nicolas Sarkozy blow up?

Observing Nicolas Sarkozy governing France is a bit like watching a man striking matches in a warehouse full of fireworks: there is constant colour, noise and excitement but also a nagging fear that the whole thing might explode. His determination to reform the country’s rigid labour laws is the most likely spark. But the country’s civil service, universities and banlieues are also combustible. The French president’s impulsive foreign policy seems yet another accident foretold. That said, Mr Sarkozy has an instinctive understanding of his compatriots and a happy knack of skirting disaster. French voters elected him to change the country. He runs the most risks by taking none. There will be plenty of flashes in 2008, but none is likely to prove fatal. John Thornhill
Progress on a Kyoto replacement?

There will be real progress on climate change in 2008, but it will often feel as if the world is taking a few steps back for every stride forward. Although the US agreed at last in Bali to launch negotiations, with a view to wrapping up a Kyoto replacement by the end of 2009, the ink was scarcely dry before the Bush administration started voicing “serious concerns” about the role of developing nations in future talks.

That will be the pattern of negotiations this year, as officials fill in the details of the Bali “roadmap”. Progress will be accompanied by recriminations, from the US and the European Union, and from developing countries fearful of being landed with a bill for rich countries’ emissions. Fiona Harvey

Will Iran get the bomb?

Luckily, not this year. Even the US, usually the most pessimistic about ­Iranian intentions, now judges that Iran could produce enough material for a nuclear weapon in 2009 at the earliest, but more likely between 2010 and 2015. In an extraordinary about-turn, the US’s National Intelligence Assessment now tells us Iran also stopped its atomic weapons programme in 2003.

That is not to say Iran will not continue in its declared pursuit of a fuel cycle, the most sensitive part of which is enriching uranium. Mastering the process, which it is close to achieving and apparently determined to continue, will eventually give it the option to produce atomic weapons. For now, though, a bomb is not on the cards, nor are the capabilities to produce it quite there. Roula Khalaf

More especulations on the growth of Google, US economy, UK house prices, eurozone rate interest, China's revaluation of the renminbi and Iraq desintregation at http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/eb14b4b2-b6fe-11dc-aa38-0000779fd2ac.html?nclick_check=1>Financial Times.com

[aquart]

1. Well, they got the recession part wrong.

But maybe they use other standards.

[avaistheone1]

2. They must use different standards SUCH AS

if the wealthy on Wall Street are doing well, than it doesn't matter what happens to the people on Main Street. Perhaps they use standards like that.

[David Dunham]

3. They are correct on the US election issue